比特幣和以太坊市場流動性合同，轉移投資者風險胃口

最近，加密貨幣市場顯示出流動性收縮的跡象和投資者風險食慾的轉變

The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of liquidity contraction and a shift in investor risk appetite after a period of bull market prosperity. Key indicators from on-chain data and the derivatives market indicate that the market is transitioning from a state of high volatility and speculation to a more cautious, low liquidity phase. On-chain activity for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a significant decline in "hot supply" and a noticeable decrease in exchange inflows.

加密貨幣市場表明，在牛市繁榮時期，投資者風險食慾的轉變跡象。鏈上數據和衍生品市場的主要指標表明，市場正在從高波動性和投機狀態過渡到更加謹慎，低流動性階段。比特幣和以太坊的鏈活動表現出“熱供應”的顯著下降，並且在交換流入方面顯著下降。

Is the current market at a turning point? Is it a bull retracement or the beginning of a bear market? How can investors seize opportunities amidst shrinking liquidity and adjusting risk preferences? This article will analyze the current market environment based on on-chain activities of Bitcoin and Ethereum, exchange fund flows, and market dynamic data.

當前的市場是轉折點嗎？是牛市還是熊市的開始？投資者如何在縮小流動性和調整風險偏好的情況下抓住機會？本文將根據比特幣和以太坊，交換基金流量以及市場動態數據的鍊鍊活動分析當前的市場環境。

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's on-chain activity has dropped to levels not seen in months, with a significant decrease in transaction volume, which often indicates a market undergoing a consolidation phase after high volatility.

根據GlassNode數據，比特幣的鍊鍊活動已下降到幾個月中未見的水平，交易量顯著減少，這通常表明市場經歷了高波動性後正在鞏固階段的市場。

The "Hot Supply" of Bitcoin, which measures and quantifies active capital in the market—specifically, the supply of Bitcoin held for less than a week—has decreased from 5.9% to 2.8% over the past three months, showing a decline of over 50%. This further corroborates the phenomenon of liquidity contraction.

比特幣的“熱供應”（衡量和量化市場中的活躍資本）（尤其是持有的比特幣供應不到一周）在過去三個月中從5.9％下降到2.8％，顯示出50％以上的下降。這進一步證實了流動性收縮的現象。

From the perspective of on-chain transaction numbers, Bitcoin's on-chain activity has also dropped to levels not seen in months, indicating that the market is entering a cooling period or experiencing a decline in short-term interest. The decrease in transaction volume seems to imply a reduction in speculative activity. If long-term holders are not selling and new inflows are limited, the market may enter an accumulation phase.

從鏈上交易數字的角度來看，比特幣的鍊鍊活動也已下降到幾個月中沒有看到的水平，表明市場正在進入冷卻期或短期利益的下降。交易量的減少似乎意味著投機活動的減少。如果長期持有人不銷售並且新的流入量有限，則市場可能會進入累積階段。

Meanwhile, the share of Bitcoin miners in the total on-chain transaction volume has dropped to 4.23%, the lowest level since November 2022. This data reflects a significant decline in miners' participation in on-chain trading activities. A lower trading share may indicate that miners are reducing their selling behavior, opting instead to hold their coins to cope with market volatility, thereby reducing the selling pressure caused by miner sell-offs.

同時，比特幣礦工在總鏈交易量中的份額已下降到4.23％，這是自2022年11月以來的最低水平。該數據反映了礦工參與鏈貿易活動的顯著下降。較低的交易份額可能表明礦工正在減少其銷售行為，而是選擇將硬幣固定以應對市場波動，從而減少了礦工出售造成的銷售壓力。

The relative decline in miner transaction volume may also suggest that other market participants (such as long-term holders or institutional investors) are more active, leading to a change in the overall on-chain trading structure. Against the backdrop of market shifts and declining mining revenues, miners may be adjusting their strategies, reducing frequent on-chain transactions, and concentrating resources to optimize their revenue structure.

礦工交易量的相對下降也可能表明其他市場參與者（例如長期持有人或機構投資者）更加活躍，從而導致整體鏈交易結構發生變化。在市場轉變和採礦收入下降的背景下，礦工可能正在調整其策略，減少頻繁的鏈交易，並集中資源以優化其收入結構。

In the futures market, the total open interest has declined from an ATH of $57B to $37B, a drop of about 35%, indicating a significant reduction in hedging and speculative activities in the market.

在期貨市場中，總開放息息率從57B美元的ATH下降到37B美元，下降了約35％，這表明市場上的套期保值和投機活動大幅下降。

At the same time, after the launch of the US spot ETF in 2024, institutions had gained arbitrage profits through cash arbitrage (long ETF + short futures) in an upward market. However, as market confidence weakened and long-side arbitrage positions were unwound, arbitrage trading gradually exited, leading to outflows from the ETF and further downward pressure on the spot market.

同時，在2024年美國現場ETF推出後，機構通過現金套利（長ETF +短期期貨）在上升市場中獲得了套利利潤。但是，隨著市場信心削弱和長時間的套利立場，套利交易逐漸退出，從而導致ETF的流出，並在現貨市場上進一步向下壓力。

According to data from the crypto market analysis firm Santiment, due to the appeal of DeFi protocols and staking products, the available ETH supply on exchanges has dropped to 8.97 million (equivalent to $1.78 billion at current prices, accounting for less than 7.5% of Ethereum's current market cap), the lowest level in nearly a decade (the previous low was in November 2015). Compared to just seven weeks ago, the ETH on trading platforms has decreased by 16.4%.

根據加密貨幣市場分析公司Santiment的數據，由於DEFI協議和製品產品的吸引力，交易所的可用ETH供應量已降至897萬（相當於17.8億美元，目前價格為17.8億美元，佔以太坊目前的市值的7.5％，是近十年來最低的（在2015年11月11月）中的最低水平）。與僅七個星期前相比，交易平台的ETH下降了16.4％。

The drop in Ethereum's exchange supply to a near 10-year low indicates a significant tightening of market liquidity. A lower exchange supply means less ETH available for sale in the market, reducing potential selling pressure, but it also makes prices more susceptible to large trades, increasing volatility.

以太坊的交換供應下降至接近10年的低點，這表明市場流動性的明顯收緊。較低的交換供應意味著在市場上出售的ETH較少，減輕了潛在的銷售壓力，但它也使價格更容易受到大型交易的影響，從而增加了波動。

However, from the current state, although the decline in exchange supply shows that the asset locking effect is strengthening, the overall market environment and multiple factors still exert downward pressure on prices. The current uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, the shift in market risk appetite, and the withdrawal of some institutional funds have further tightened market liquidity.

然而，儘管交換供應的下降表明資產鎖定效果正在加強，但總體市場環境和多個因素仍會對價格下降壓力。當前的宏觀經濟環境中的不確定性，市場風險的轉變以及某些機構資金的撤回已經進一步加劇了市場流動性。

At the same same time, volatility in the DeFi space and the development of competitive public chains have also negatively impacted market expectations for Ethereum. In this context, although the lower exchange supply reduces potential selling pressure, the adverse factors of overall market sentiment and external environment continue to push prices downward.

同時，Defi領域的波動和競爭性公共連鎖店的發展也對以太坊的市場期望產生了負面影響。在這種情況下，儘管較低的交換供應降低了潛在的銷售壓力，但總體市場情緒和外部環境的不利因素繼續推動價格下降。

If we assess the current state using indicators, according to IntoTheBlock data, ETH's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) has currently dropped to around 0.8. This level is uncommon in Ethereum's history and typically occurs during bear markets.

如果我們使用指標評估當前狀態，根據Intotheblock數據，ETH的MVRV（市場價值與已實現的價值比率）目前已下降到0.8左右。以太坊的歷史上，這個水平並不常見，通常發生在熊市。

MVRV is usually used to compare the "relationship between market value and realized value" of a token, reflecting the supply and demand dynamics of that token in the

MVRV通常用於比較令牌的“市場價值與已實現價值之間的關係”，反映了該令牌中該令牌的供求動態