比特币和以太坊市场流动性合同，转移投资者风险胃口

最近，加密货币市场显示出流动性收缩的迹象和投资者风险食欲的转变

The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of liquidity contraction and a shift in investor risk appetite after a period of bull market prosperity. Key indicators from on-chain data and the derivatives market indicate that the market is transitioning from a state of high volatility and speculation to a more cautious, low liquidity phase. On-chain activity for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a significant decline in "hot supply" and a noticeable decrease in exchange inflows.

加密货币市场表明，在牛市繁荣时期，投资者风险食欲的转变迹象。链上数据和衍生品市场的主要指标表明，市场正在从高波动性和投机状态过渡到更加谨慎，低流动性阶段。比特币和以太坊的链活动表现出“热供应”的显着下降，并且在交换流入方面显着下降。

Is the current market at a turning point? Is it a bull retracement or the beginning of a bear market? How can investors seize opportunities amidst shrinking liquidity and adjusting risk preferences? This article will analyze the current market environment based on on-chain activities of Bitcoin and Ethereum, exchange fund flows, and market dynamic data.

当前的市场是转折点吗？是牛市还是熊市的开始？投资者如何在缩小流动性和调整风险偏好的情况下抓住机会？本文将根据比特币和以太坊，交换基金流量以及市场动态数据的链链活动分析当前的市场环境。

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's on-chain activity has dropped to levels not seen in months, with a significant decrease in transaction volume, which often indicates a market undergoing a consolidation phase after high volatility.

根据GlassNode数据，比特币的链链活动已下降到几个月中未见的水平，交易量显着减少，这通常表明市场经历了高波动性后正在巩固阶段的市场。

The "Hot Supply" of Bitcoin, which measures and quantifies active capital in the market—specifically, the supply of Bitcoin held for less than a week—has decreased from 5.9% to 2.8% over the past three months, showing a decline of over 50%. This further corroborates the phenomenon of liquidity contraction.

比特币的“热供应”（衡量和量化市场中的活跃资本）（尤其是持有的比特币供应不到一周）在过去三个月中从5.9％下降到2.8％，显示出50％以上的下降。这进一步证实了流动性收缩的现象。

From the perspective of on-chain transaction numbers, Bitcoin's on-chain activity has also dropped to levels not seen in months, indicating that the market is entering a cooling period or experiencing a decline in short-term interest. The decrease in transaction volume seems to imply a reduction in speculative activity. If long-term holders are not selling and new inflows are limited, the market may enter an accumulation phase.

从链上交易数字的角度来看，比特币的链链活动也已下降到几个月中没有看到的水平，表明市场正在进入冷却期或短期利益的下降。交易量的减少似乎意味着投机活动的减少。如果长期持有人不销售并且新的流入量有限，则市场可能会进入累积阶段。

Meanwhile, the share of Bitcoin miners in the total on-chain transaction volume has dropped to 4.23%, the lowest level since November 2022. This data reflects a significant decline in miners' participation in on-chain trading activities. A lower trading share may indicate that miners are reducing their selling behavior, opting instead to hold their coins to cope with market volatility, thereby reducing the selling pressure caused by miner sell-offs.

同时，比特币矿工在总链交易量中的份额已下降到4.23％，这是自2022年11月以来的最低水平。该数据反映了矿工参与链贸易活动的显着下降。较低的交易份额可能表明矿工正在减少其销售行为，而是选择将硬币固定以应对市场波动，从而减少了矿工出售造成的销售压力。

The relative decline in miner transaction volume may also suggest that other market participants (such as long-term holders or institutional investors) are more active, leading to a change in the overall on-chain trading structure. Against the backdrop of market shifts and declining mining revenues, miners may be adjusting their strategies, reducing frequent on-chain transactions, and concentrating resources to optimize their revenue structure.

矿工交易量的相对下降也可能表明其他市场参与者（例如长期持有人或机构投资者）更加活跃，从而导致整体链交易结构发生变化。在市场转变和采矿收入下降的背景下，矿工可能正在调整其策略，减少频繁的链交易，并集中资源以优化其收入结构。

In the futures market, the total open interest has declined from an ATH of $57B to $37B, a drop of about 35%, indicating a significant reduction in hedging and speculative activities in the market.

在期货市场中，总开放息息率从57B美元的ATH下降到37B美元，下降了约35％，这表明市场上的套期保值和投机活动大幅下降。

At the same time, after the launch of the US spot ETF in 2024, institutions had gained arbitrage profits through cash arbitrage (long ETF + short futures) in an upward market. However, as market confidence weakened and long-side arbitrage positions were unwound, arbitrage trading gradually exited, leading to outflows from the ETF and further downward pressure on the spot market.

同时，在2024年美国现场ETF推出后，机构通过现金套利（长ETF +短期期货）在上升市场中获得了套利利润。但是，随着市场信心削弱和长时间的套利立场，套利交易逐渐退出，从而导致ETF的流出，并在现货市场上进一步向下压力。

According to data from the crypto market analysis firm Santiment, due to the appeal of DeFi protocols and staking products, the available ETH supply on exchanges has dropped to 8.97 million (equivalent to $1.78 billion at current prices, accounting for less than 7.5% of Ethereum's current market cap), the lowest level in nearly a decade (the previous low was in November 2015). Compared to just seven weeks ago, the ETH on trading platforms has decreased by 16.4%.

根据加密货币市场分析公司Santiment的数据，由于DEFI协议和制品产品的吸引力，交易所的可用ETH供应量已降至897万（相当于17.8亿美元，目前价格为17.8亿美元，占以太坊目前的市值的7.5％，是近十年来最低的（在2015年11月11月）中的最低水平）。与仅七个星期前相比，交易平台的ETH下降了16.4％。

The drop in Ethereum's exchange supply to a near 10-year low indicates a significant tightening of market liquidity. A lower exchange supply means less ETH available for sale in the market, reducing potential selling pressure, but it also makes prices more susceptible to large trades, increasing volatility.

以太坊的交换供应下降至接近10年的低点，这表明市场流动性的明显收紧。较低的交换供应意味着在市场上出售的ETH较少，减轻了潜在的销售压力，但它也使价格更容易受到大型交易的影响，从而增加了波动。

However, from the current state, although the decline in exchange supply shows that the asset locking effect is strengthening, the overall market environment and multiple factors still exert downward pressure on prices. The current uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, the shift in market risk appetite, and the withdrawal of some institutional funds have further tightened market liquidity.

然而，尽管交换供应的下降表明资产锁定效果正在加强，但总体市场环境和多个因素仍会对价格下降压力。当前的宏观经济环境中的不确定性，市场风险的转变以及某些机构资金的撤回已经进一步加剧了市场流动性。

At the same same time, volatility in the DeFi space and the development of competitive public chains have also negatively impacted market expectations for Ethereum. In this context, although the lower exchange supply reduces potential selling pressure, the adverse factors of overall market sentiment and external environment continue to push prices downward.

同时，Defi领域的波动和竞争性公共连锁店的发展也对以太坊的市场期望产生了负面影响。在这种情况下，尽管较低的交换供应降低了潜在的销售压力，但总体市场情绪和外部环境的不利因素继续推动价格下降。

If we assess the current state using indicators, according to IntoTheBlock data, ETH's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) has currently dropped to around 0.8. This level is uncommon in Ethereum's history and typically occurs during bear markets.

如果我们使用指标评估当前状态，根据Intotheblock数据，ETH的MVRV（市场价值与已实现的价值比率）目前已下降到0.8左右。以太坊的历史上，这个水平并不常见，通常发生在熊市。

MVRV is usually used to compare the "relationship between market value and realized value" of a token, reflecting the supply and demand dynamics of that token in the

MVRV通常用于比较令牌的“市场价值与已实现价值之间的关系”，反映了该令牌中该令牌的供求动态