比特幣 ETF 將為市場帶來影響：供需動態和貝萊德的主導地位

比特幣 ETF 的需求激增，上週吸收了 7,376 枚比特幣。然而，Grayscale 的 GBTC ETF 總計 10,867 枚比特幣的流出阻礙了價格的進一步上漲。貝萊德憑藉其較低的管理費，已成為領先的 ETF 持有者，擁有 264,000 枚比特幣，而富達則以 150,000 枚比特幣緊隨其後，Ark 持有 43,000 枚比特幣。

Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds: Anticipating Developments and Market Dynamics

比特幣交易所交易基金：預測發展與市場動態

In the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as significant players, providing investors with an accessible and regulated avenue to participate in the digital asset market. Specifically, Bitcoin ETFs, which track the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, have attracted considerable attention and are poised to make further waves in the upcoming week.

在加密貨幣不斷發展的格局中，交易所交易基金（ETF）已成為重要參與者，為投資者提供了參與數位資產市場的可訪問且受監管的途徑。具體來說，追蹤旗艦加密貨幣價格的比特幣 ETF 已經引起了相當大的關注，並準備在未來一周掀起進一步的浪潮。

Demand and Supply Dynamics

供需動態

Over the past week, Bitcoin ETFs collectively absorbed an impressive 7,376 bitcoins, eclipsing the 120% mark in relation to bitcoins mined during the same period. This surge in demand has been a driving force in the cryptocurrency's recent price appreciation.

過去一周，比特幣 ETF 總共吸收了令人印象深刻的 7,376 枚比特幣，超過了同期開採的比特幣數量的 120%。需求的激增是加密貨幣近期價格上漲的動力。

However, it is important to note the contrasting actions of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has experienced substantial outflows of 10,867 bitcoins. Additionally, Ark Capital's ETF has witnessed its first significant net weekly outflows, amounting to 1,154 bitcoins.

然而，值得注意的是 Grayscale 的比特幣信託基金 (GBTC) 的行為卻截然不同，該信託基金已經經歷了 10,867 枚比特幣的大量外流。此外，Ark Capital 的 ETF 首次出現每週大幅淨流出，總計 1,154 枚比特幣。

Market Leaders and Outflows

市場領導者和資金流出

Despite the outflows from GBTC, BlackRock remains the dominant player in the Bitcoin ETF space, holding a substantial 264,000 BTC on behalf of its clients. This represents a significant 1.35% of all bitcoins in circulation, translating to a staggering value of approximately $19 billion.

儘管 GBTC 資金流出，貝萊德仍然是比特幣 ETF 領域的主導者，代表其客戶持有 264,000 枚 BTC。這佔流通中所有比特幣的 1.35%，價值約為 190 億美元。

Fidelity occupies the second spot with 150,000 BTC (approximately $11 billion), while Ark trails in third place with 43,000 BTC.

Fidelity 以 15 萬 BTC（約 110 億美元）位居第二，而 Ark 以 43,000 BTC 位居第三。

Grayscale's Impact

灰階的影響

Notably, the outflows from Grayscale's GBTC ETF have served as a potential hindrance to Bitcoin's price ascent toward $100,000. A comparative analysis of BTC quantities held by Grayscale (represented in red) and BlackRock (represented in green) reveals a striking symmetry.

值得注意的是，Grayscale 的 GBTC ETF 的資金流出已成為比特幣價格升至 10 萬美元的潛在障礙。對灰階（以紅色表示）和貝萊德（以綠色表示）持有的 BTC 數量進行比較分析，發現了驚人的對稱性。

This parallel suggests that a substantial portion of BTC leaving Grayscale's ETF is being diverted directly into BlackRock's ETF. This shift can be attributed to Grayscale's higher management fees, which are over six times higher than BlackRock's, leading to a steady exodus of clients.

這一相似之處表明，離開 Grayscale ETF 的 BTC 的很大一部分正在直接轉移到 BlackRock 的 ETF 中。這種轉變可歸因於灰階管理費較高，其管理費比貝萊德高出六倍多，導致客戶穩定外流。

Supply and Demand Overview

供需概況

Since the inception of Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, the supply-demand dynamics have played a crucial role in shaping market movements. On the supply side, a total of -78,300 BTC has been mined, while -296,500 BTC has been sold off by the GBTC ETF and -189,402 BTC by various entities.

自 1 月 10 日比特幣 ETF 推出以來，供需動態在影響市場趨勢方面發揮了至關重要的作用。在供應方面，總共開採了-78,300 BTC，而GBTC ETF已出售-296,500 BTC，各個實體已出售-189,402 BTC。

On the demand side, ETFs have accumulated an impressive 519,500 BTC, complemented by 25,096 BTC purchased by Microstrategy, the firm founded by Michael Saylor, and 19,606 BTC by the enigmatic individual known as "Mr. 100."

在需求方面，ETF 已累積了令人印象深刻的 519,500 BTC，另外還有 Michael Saylor 創立的 Microstrategy 購買的 25,096 BTC，以及被稱為「100 先生」的神秘人物購買的 19,606 BTC。

Halving and Market Outlook

減半及市場展望

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaches on April 19, the supply dynamics are poised for a significant transformation. With rewards distributed at each block being halved, the supply of new BTC will be drastically reduced.

隨著 4 月 19 日備受期待的比特幣減半事件的臨近，供應動態即將發生重大轉變。隨著每個區塊分配的獎勵減半，新比特幣的供應量將大幅減少。

This supply shock is expected to bolster Bitcoin's price trajectory and propel it toward新たな 高み. Historically, most miners sell all of their bitcoin production, making BlackRock's substantial BTC purchases all the more significant.

這種供應衝擊預計將支撐比特幣的價格軌跡，並將其推向新たな高み。從歷史上看，大多數礦商都會出售所有的比特幣產量，這使得貝萊德大量購買比特幣變得更加重要。

Post-halving, BlackRock's ETF is anticipated to absorb twice the natural supply of BTC than what is mined. Moreover, according to the order book of the Coinbase exchange, selling pressure between the current price and $75,000 per bitcoin is a mere 1,000 bitcoins.

減半後，貝萊德的 ETF 預計吸收的 BTC 自然供應量是開採量的兩倍。而且，根據 Coinbase 交易所的訂單簿，當前價格與每個比特幣 75,000 美元之間的拋售壓力僅為 1,000 個比特幣。

Conclusion

結論

In the absence of significant outflows from the GBTC ETF, the coming days and weeks could shed further light on the market's trajectory. The impending launch of Chinese ETFs adds another layer of anticipation to the mix.

在 GBTC ETF 沒有出現大量資金流出的情況下，未來幾天和幾週可能會進一步揭示市場的趨勢。即將推出的中國 ETF 又增添了一層預期。

As the Bitcoin ETF landscape continues to evolve, investors are advised to closely monitor supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and the actions of institutional players. These factors will undoubtedly shape the price movements and market sentiment in the weeks and months to come.

隨著比特幣 ETF 格局的不斷發展，建議投資者密切關注供需動態、地緣政治發展以及機構參與者的行動。這些因素無疑將影響未來幾週和幾個月的價格趨勢和市場情緒。