比特币 ETF 将为市场带来影响：供需动态和贝莱德的主导地位

比特币 ETF 的需求激增，上周吸收了 7,376 枚比特币。然而，Grayscale 的 GBTC ETF 总计 10,867 枚比特币的流出阻碍了价格的进一步上涨。贝莱德凭借其较低的管理费，已成为领先的 ETF 持有者，拥有 264,000 枚比特币，而富达则以 150,000 枚比特币紧随其后，Ark 持有 43,000 枚比特币。

Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds: Anticipating Developments and Market Dynamics

比特币交易所交易基金：预测发展和市场动态

In the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as significant players, providing investors with an accessible and regulated avenue to participate in the digital asset market. Specifically, Bitcoin ETFs, which track the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, have attracted considerable attention and are poised to make further waves in the upcoming week.

在加密货币不断发展的格局中，交易所交易基金（ETF）已成为重要参与者，为投资者提供了参与数字资产市场的可访问且受监管的途径。具体来说，跟踪旗舰加密货币价格的比特币 ETF 已经引起了相当大的关注，并准备在未来一周掀起进一步的浪潮。

Demand and Supply Dynamics

供需动态

Over the past week, Bitcoin ETFs collectively absorbed an impressive 7,376 bitcoins, eclipsing the 120% mark in relation to bitcoins mined during the same period. This surge in demand has been a driving force in the cryptocurrency's recent price appreciation.

过去一周，比特币 ETF 总共吸收了令人印象深刻的 7,376 枚比特币，超过了同期开采的比特币数量的 120%。需求的激增是加密货币近期价格上涨的推动力。

However, it is important to note the contrasting actions of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has experienced substantial outflows of 10,867 bitcoins. Additionally, Ark Capital's ETF has witnessed its first significant net weekly outflows, amounting to 1,154 bitcoins.

然而，值得注意的是 Grayscale 的比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 的行为却截然不同，该信托基金已经经历了 10,867 枚比特币的大量外流。此外，Ark Capital 的 ETF 首次出现每周大幅净流出，总计 1,154 枚比特币。

Market Leaders and Outflows

市场领导者和资金流出

Despite the outflows from GBTC, BlackRock remains the dominant player in the Bitcoin ETF space, holding a substantial 264,000 BTC on behalf of its clients. This represents a significant 1.35% of all bitcoins in circulation, translating to a staggering value of approximately $19 billion.

尽管 GBTC 资金流出，贝莱德仍然是比特币 ETF 领域的主导者，代表其客户持有 264,000 枚 BTC。这占流通中所有比特币的 1.35%，价值约为 190 亿美元。

Fidelity occupies the second spot with 150,000 BTC (approximately $11 billion), while Ark trails in third place with 43,000 BTC.

Fidelity 以 150,000 BTC（约合 110 亿美元）位居第二，而 Ark 以 43,000 BTC 位居第三。

Grayscale's Impact

灰度的影响

Notably, the outflows from Grayscale's GBTC ETF have served as a potential hindrance to Bitcoin's price ascent toward $100,000. A comparative analysis of BTC quantities held by Grayscale (represented in red) and BlackRock (represented in green) reveals a striking symmetry.

值得注意的是，Grayscale 的 GBTC ETF 的资金流出已成为比特币价格升至 10 万美元的潜在障碍。对灰度（以红色表示）和贝莱德（以绿色表示）持有的 BTC 数量进行比较分析，发现了惊人的对称性。

This parallel suggests that a substantial portion of BTC leaving Grayscale's ETF is being diverted directly into BlackRock's ETF. This shift can be attributed to Grayscale's higher management fees, which are over six times higher than BlackRock's, leading to a steady exodus of clients.

这一相似之处表明，离开 Grayscale ETF 的 BTC 的很大一部分正在直接转移到 BlackRock 的 ETF 中。这种转变可归因于灰度管理费较高，其管理费比贝莱德高出六倍多，导致客户稳步外流。

Supply and Demand Overview

供需概况

Since the inception of Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, the supply-demand dynamics have played a crucial role in shaping market movements. On the supply side, a total of -78,300 BTC has been mined, while -296,500 BTC has been sold off by the GBTC ETF and -189,402 BTC by various entities.

自 1 月 10 日比特币 ETF 推出以来，供需动态在影响市场走势方面发挥了至关重要的作用。在供应方面，总共开采了-78,300 BTC，而GBTC ETF已出售-296,500 BTC，各个实体已出售-189,402 BTC。

On the demand side, ETFs have accumulated an impressive 519,500 BTC, complemented by 25,096 BTC purchased by Microstrategy, the firm founded by Michael Saylor, and 19,606 BTC by the enigmatic individual known as "Mr. 100."

在需求方面，ETF 已积累了令人印象深刻的 519,500 BTC，另外还有 Michael Saylor 创立的 Microstrategy 购买的 25,096 BTC，以及被称为“100 先生”的神秘人物购买的 19,606 BTC。

Halving and Market Outlook

减半及市场展望

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaches on April 19, the supply dynamics are poised for a significant transformation. With rewards distributed at each block being halved, the supply of new BTC will be drastically reduced.

随着 4 月 19 日备受期待的比特币减半事件的临近，供应动态即将发生重大转变。随着每个区块分配的奖励减半，新比特币的供应量将大幅减少。

This supply shock is expected to bolster Bitcoin's price trajectory and propel it toward新たな 高み. Historically, most miners sell all of their bitcoin production, making BlackRock's substantial BTC purchases all the more significant.

这种供应冲击预计将支撑比特币的价格轨迹，并将其推向新たな高み。从历史上看，大多数矿商都会出售所有的比特币产量，这使得贝莱德大量购买比特币变得更加重要。

Post-halving, BlackRock's ETF is anticipated to absorb twice the natural supply of BTC than what is mined. Moreover, according to the order book of the Coinbase exchange, selling pressure between the current price and $75,000 per bitcoin is a mere 1,000 bitcoins.

减半后，贝莱德的 ETF 预计吸收的 BTC 自然供应量是开采量的两倍。而且，根据 Coinbase 交易所的订单簿，当前价格与每个比特币 75,000 美元之间的抛售压力仅为 1,000 个比特币。

Conclusion

结论

In the absence of significant outflows from the GBTC ETF, the coming days and weeks could shed further light on the market's trajectory. The impending launch of Chinese ETFs adds another layer of anticipation to the mix.

在 GBTC ETF 没有出现大量资金流出的情况下，未来几天和几周可能会进一步揭示市场的走势。即将推出的中国 ETF 又增添了一层预期。

As the Bitcoin ETF landscape continues to evolve, investors are advised to closely monitor supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and the actions of institutional players. These factors will undoubtedly shape the price movements and market sentiment in the weeks and months to come.

随着比特币 ETF 格局的不断发展，建议投资者密切关注供需动态、地缘政治发展以及机构参与者的行动。这些因素无疑将影响未来几周和几个月的价格走势和市场情绪。