比特幣ETF：直接BTC暴露的門戶，但是它們值得嗎？

比特幣花了10年的時間獲得了其第一個是交易的交易所交易基金（ETF）。直到2024年1月，這種類型的比特幣投資一直由未擁有實際BTC的期貨交易的ETF主導。通過持有實際資產，現貨交易的ETF不僅可以直接接觸比特幣，而沒有BTC監護的麻煩，而且還可以直接接觸比特幣，而且提供了最小的價格偏差，例如期貨合約中的Contango。

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally arrived in January 2024, offering investors direct exposure to the flagship cryptocurrency without the hassles of BTC custody.

比特幣交易所交易的資金（ETF）最終於2024年1月到達，為投資者提供了直接接觸旗艦加密貨幣的侵害，而無需BTC託管的麻煩。

But while Bitcoin ETFs opened the floodgates for both retail and institutional investors, driving up the price of Bitcoin, does that mean it is a good idea to invest in crypto ETFs as well?

但是，儘管比特幣ETF為零售和機構投資者開放了閘門，但提高了比特幣的價格，這是否意味著投資加密ETF也是一個好主意？

Let’s first examine what exactly does it mean to have such exposure in the case of Bitcoin.

讓我們首先檢查在比特幣的情況下進行這種曝光到底意味著什麼。

Exposure to Custodial Bitcoin as ETF Shares

ETF分享時，接觸保管比特幣

As increased liquidity crashed against the wall of Bitcoin’s scarcity of 21 million BTC, investors gained outsized returns.

隨著比特幣稀缺2100萬BTC的流動性增加，投資者獲得了巨額回報。

Case in point, since the launch of VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF (HODL) from January 2024 by the end of January 2025, the fund had a life return of 117.70%.

舉個例子，自2024年1月底從2024年1月底開始，Vaneck的比特幣ETF（HODL）推出以來，該基金的壽命回報率為117.70％。

Last week, VanEck Bitcoin ETF executed a four-for-one forward stock split, elevating the number of the fund’s shares from 12.8 million to 51.2 million. As with companies represented by shares, the total value of the fund’s assets remained unchanged, now holding 14,430 BTC worth around $1.42 billion.

上週，Vaneck Bitcoin ETF執行了四輪遠遠的股票拆分，將該基金的股票數量從1,280萬股提高到5120萬。與由股票代表的公司一樣，基金資產的總價值保持不變，現在持有14,430 BTC，價值約14.2億美元。

And just like Nvidia did a stock split to lower the barrier to entry for investors, so did VanEck. The fund’s Net Asset Value (NAV) is the total value of ETF’s assets divided by the number of shares. Following the 4x increase, HODL is presently priced at $27.88 per share.

就像Nvidia所做的股票分割以降低投資者的入境障礙一樣，Vaneck也是如此。基金的淨資產價值（NAV）是ETF資產的總價值除以股份數量。增加4倍後，HODL目前的價格為每股27.88美元。

If the NAV price is in a consistent premium range, when its market price is higher than NAV price, this suggests bullish market conditions because investors are paying more for ETF shares than the value of underlying holdings.

如果NAV價格處於一致的溢價範圍內，那麼當其市場價格高於NAV價格時，這表明了看漲的市場狀況，因為投資者為ETF股票支付的費用要比基礎持有的價值高。

Vice-versa, if the NAV price is in a consistent discount range, when its market price is lower than NAV price, investors are buying ETF shares for less than the underlying value, suggesting bearishness. Of course, this would represent an investing opportunity

反之亦然，如果NAV價格處於一致的折扣範圍內，那麼當其市場價格低於NAV價格時，投資者以低於基本價值的價格購買ETF股票，這表明看跌。當然，這將代表一個投資機會

In the case of VanEck’s HODL, its 12-month low (discount) was $14.44 on February 23, 2024, while its 12-month high (premium) was $30.16 on January 21, 2025.

就Vaneck的Hodl而言，其12個月的低點（折扣）為2024年2月23日的14.44美元，而其12個月的高（Premium）為2025年1月21日為30.16美元。

Lastly, for the convenience of delegated custody, investors pay a small fee to cover the costs of managing the fund. However, to attract the initial capital inflows, many Bitcoin ETFs waived such fees. VanEck will start charging 0.20% Sponsor Fee after January 10th, 2026, or sooner if the funds’ assets exceed $2.5 billion.

最後，為了方便委派監護權，投資者支付了少量費用來支付管理基金的費用。但是，為了吸引最初的資本流入，許多比特幣ETF免除了此類費用。 Vaneck將在2026年1月10日之後開始收取0.20％的讚助商費，或者如果資金的資產超過25億美元，則會更快。

Are Crypto ETFs Worth It?

加密ETF值得嗎？

Crypto ETFs should not be confused with bundled-up, blockchain-related companies. For example, the VanEck Crypto ETF (DAPP) is called as such but instead of holding cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, it holds exposure to companies.

加密ETF不應與捆綁的與區塊鏈相關的公司混淆。例如，Vaneck Crypto ETF（DAPP）被稱為這樣，但它沒有持有比特幣以外的其他加密貨幣，而是對公司的敞口。

These range from Coinbase and Microstrategy to Riot Platforms and Bitdeer, with each carrying a different weight in the portfolio. So far, DAPP’s performance appears highly cyclical, yielding greatly lower returns vs HODL, at negative 15.73 life returns.

這些範圍從共插基和微型造影到Riot平台和Bitder，每個平台都在投資組合中具有不同的重量。到目前為止，Dapp的性能看起來很週期性，在負15.73壽命回報下，與HODL相比，回報率較低。

However, retail investors may notice that in both cases, one year exposure to such ETFs yielded above 100% returns. For comparison, the average stock market return yielded around 11.3% annually over the last 10 years, per S&P Dow Jones Indices.

但是，散戶投資者可能會注意到，在這兩種情況下，此類ETF的一年接觸均產生超過100％的回報。為了進行比較，在過去的10年中，平均股票市場收益每年的平均收益約為11.3％。

When it comes to ETFs holding physical altcoins, under the umbrella of exchange-traded products (ETPs), they typically cover the largest market cap cryptos, such as Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) or Solana (SOL).

當涉及持有物理山寨幣的ETF時，在交換產品（ETP）的保護下，它們通常涵蓋最大的市值加密蛋白，例如Ether（Eth），Ripple（XRP）或Solana（Solan）（SOL）。

The problem is that with tens of thousands of tokens unleashed, the altcoin market suffers from fragmentation and capital dilution. On top of that, it remains unclear which general-purpose smart contract platform – Solana, Ethereum, or a future newcomer – will gain the upper hand.

問題在於，隨著成千上萬的代幣釋放，山寨幣市場遭受了分散和資本稀釋的影響。最重要的是，目前尚不清楚哪種通用智能合同平台 - Solana，以太坊或未來的新人 - 將佔上風。

Case in point, even the ETP that reinvests staking yields, 21Shares Ethereum Staking ETP (AETH), underperforms vs Bitcoin ETFs.

舉個例子，即使是重新投資堆積的ETP也產生了21shares以太坊樁ETP（AETH），表現不佳與比特幣ETF。

Without the staking benefit, iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) yielded negative 20.58% returns over one year. Given early launch, AETH’s inception performance is outstanding, but investors should expect continued underperforming divergence of cryptos from Bitcoin.

如果沒有存放益處，iShares以太坊信託（ETHA）在一年內產生了20.58％的回報。鑑於提前發布，AETH的Inception表現非常出色，但是投資者應該期望加密幣與比特幣的表現不佳。

After all, as a proof-of-work-backed sound money, Bitcoin lacks competition. At present, it seems that Solana blockchain, owing to its fast execution and low fees, is a better choice than legacy smart contract platforms. It is also the main hub for launching countless memecoins.

畢竟，作為工作證明的聲音錢，比特幣缺乏競爭。目前，由於其快速執行和低費用，Solana區塊鏈似乎比傳統的智能合同平台更好。它也是推出無數模因的主要樞紐。

In short, retail investors should expect the capital dilution of the altcoin market to carry

簡而言之，散戶投資者應該期望替補市場的資本稀釋能夠攜帶