比特幣將市場期望視為大筆款項

特朗普“解放日”公告不到兩週後，美國市場仍然非常波動。

Less than two weeks after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the U.S market remains highly volatile. The bond market has crashed and Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly jump since 2001. Overall, it appears Trump’s trade war has backfired. Hence, the 90-day pause that followed.

特朗普“解放日”公告不到兩週後，美國市場仍然非常波動。債券市場崩潰了，財政部的收益率每週最大，自2001年以來。總的來說，特朗普的貿易戰似乎適得其反。因此，隨後的90天停頓。

With the broader market struggling, Bitcoin (BTC) has steadily reclaimed its key resistance zones. This isn’t a coincidence – big money has driven the cycle, with large wallets (1k-10k BTC) acquiring 100k BTC since March.

隨著更廣泛的市場掙扎，比特幣（BTC）穩步回收了其關鍵阻力區。這不是一個巧合 - 大筆錢已驅動了周期，自3月以來，大錢包（1k-10k BTC）以100k BTC獲取。

As analysts grow bullish, speculating on a parabolic run and calling Bitcoin an emerging “safe haven” might be premature. What happens when these large holders, sitting on unrealized profits, decide to exit in a volatile market? Are we nearing a market top or a potential sell-off?

隨著分析師的看漲，猜測拋物線式奔跑並將比特幣稱為新興的“避風港”可能還為時過早。當這些大型持有人坐在未實現的利潤上，決定在動蕩的市場中退出時會發生什麼？我們是接近市場頂部還是潛在的拋售？

Bitcoin defies market expectations

比特幣違反了市場期望

Let’s break down the current state of the U.S economy to understand its impact on Bitcoin. Normally, U.S. bonds and treasury yields (which represent the U.S. government’s borrowing cost) don’t move in lockstep.

讓我們分解美國經濟的當前狀態，以了解其對比特幣的影響。通常，美國的債券和財政收益率（代表美國政府的借貸成本）不會鎖定。

In simple terms, when the bond market declines, yields spike. Economists point to this dynamic as the catalyst behind Trump’s adjustment of his tariff policies.

簡而言之，當債券市場下降時，會產生尖峰。經濟學家指出，這種動態是特朗普調整其關稅政策背後的催化劑。

On 9 April, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged by approximately 10bps, breaching the 4.5% mark – its highest level since mid-February.

4月9日，美國10年的國庫收益率飆升了約10bps，違反了4.5％的成績，這是自2月中旬以來的最高水平。

Source: Trading Economics

資料來源：交易經濟學

Looking ahead to 2025, a large portion of U.S. debt will mature, triggering the need for refinancing. In fact, reports indicate that between $7 trillion and $9.2 trillion will require refinancing throughout the year.

展望2025年，美國很大一部分債務將成熟，這引發了再融資的需求。實際上，報告表明，全年需要再融資7萬億至9.2萬億美元。

The recent bond market crash – allegedly triggered by foreign sell-offs – has driven yields higher, elevating the government’s cost of borrowing. As a result, the likelihood of near-term rate cuts has diminished significantly. This has also undermined the U.S dollar’s image as a safe haven.

據稱是由外國拋售引發的債券市場崩潰，使收益率更高，從而提高了政府的借貸成本。結果，近期降低率的可能性顯著降低。這也破壞了美元作為避風港的形象。

Against this backdrop, the White House announced a 90-day tariff pause. And yet, the macro uncertainty is far from resolved. The U.S.-China trade conflict continues to escalate.

在此背景下，白宮宣布了90天的關稅暫停。然而，宏觀不確定性遠未解決。美中貿易衝突繼續升級。

In the face of this economic turbulence, Bitcoin has defied broader market sell-offs. Following a week of heavy selling pressure that briefly dragged prices below $75k, BTC staged a strong reversal. At press time, it had rallied by nearly 11% to reclaim $83,500.

面對這種經濟動盪，比特幣違反了更廣泛的市場拋售。經過一周的銷售壓力，短暫地將價格拖到7.5萬美元以下之後，BTC進行了強烈的逆轉。在發稿時，收回$ 83,500的收入已匯總近11％。

Big money steps in

大筆款項

CryptoQuant data revealed that whales have been pivotal in absorbing recent market pressure. Since March, wallets holding between 1k and 10k BTC have acquired a significant 100k BTC.

加密數據顯示，鯨魚在吸收最近的市場壓力方面一直是關鍵的。自3月以來，持有1K和10K BTC之間的錢包已經獲得了100K BTC。

Further analysis found that long-term holders (LTHs) now command 13.60 million BTC – reflecting a 420k BTC hike in their holdings over the same period.

進一步的分析發現，長期持有人（LTHS）現在指揮136億BTC - 反映了同一時期的持股中420k BTC的加息。

Right now, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for LTHs is 0.68. This indicated that on average, these holders may be sitting on 68% unrealized profits.

目前，LTHS的淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）為0.68。這表明，平均而言，這些持有人可能坐落在68％未實現的利潤上。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

From a mathematical standpoint, given Bitcoin’s press time market price of $83,500, the implied average acquisition price for LTHs would be approximately $49,702.38.

從數學的角度來看，鑑於比特幣的新聞時間市場價格為83,500美元，LTHS的平均收購價約為49,702.38美元。

Notably, the NUPL has yet to enter the euphoria phase – an indicator often seen at market tops. For reference, during Bitcoin’s rally to $109k in January, the NUPL hit 0.76, marking a significant point of market exuberance.

值得注意的是，NUPL尚未進入欣快階段 - 這是市場頂部經常看到的指標。作為參考，在比特幣在一月份的集會上升至109K美元期間，NUPL達到了0.76，標誌著市場的重要點。

However, the broader macroeconomic environment remains a key variable. Just like Ethereum saw massive capitulation from LTHs after the trade-driven pump, Bitcoin could face similar pressure. While the 90-day tariff pause provides some temporary relief, it will eventually end. This could reignite volatility.

但是，更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境仍然是關鍵變量。就像以太坊在以貿易型泵後的LTH量投降一樣，比特幣也可能面臨類似的壓力。儘管90天的關稅停頓提供了一些暫時的緩解，但最終將結束。這可能會重新啟動波動。

Additionally, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to weigh heavily on the market, with investors watching closely. Because of this, it’s still too early to call Bitcoin’s current resilience a sign of a parabolic run. Caution is still the best approach.

此外，正在進行的美國 - 中國貿易戰爭繼續在市場上重視，投資者密切關注。因此，將比特幣當前的韌性稱為拋物線型跑步還為時過早。謹慎仍然是最好的方法。