比特币将市场期望视为大笔款项

特朗普“解放日”公告不到两周后，美国市场仍然非常波动。

Less than two weeks after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the U.S market remains highly volatile. The bond market has crashed and Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly jump since 2001. Overall, it appears Trump’s trade war has backfired. Hence, the 90-day pause that followed.

特朗普“解放日”公告不到两周后，美国市场仍然非常波动。债券市场崩溃了，财政部的收益率每周最大，自2001年以来。总的来说，特朗普的贸易战似乎适得其反。因此，随后的90天停顿。

With the broader market struggling, Bitcoin (BTC) has steadily reclaimed its key resistance zones. This isn’t a coincidence – big money has driven the cycle, with large wallets (1k-10k BTC) acquiring 100k BTC since March.

随着更广泛的市场挣扎，比特币（BTC）稳步回收了其关键阻力区域。这不是一个巧合 - 大笔钱已驱动了周期，自3月以来，大钱包（1k-10k BTC）以100k BTC获取。

As analysts grow bullish, speculating on a parabolic run and calling Bitcoin an emerging “safe haven” might be premature. What happens when these large holders, sitting on unrealized profits, decide to exit in a volatile market? Are we nearing a market top or a potential sell-off?

随着分析师的看涨，猜测抛物线式奔跑并将比特币称为新兴的“避风港”可能还为时过早。当这些大型持有人坐在未实现的利润上，决定在动荡的市场中退出时会发生什么？我们是接近市场顶部还是潜在的抛售？

Bitcoin defies market expectations

比特币违反了市场期望

Let’s break down the current state of the U.S economy to understand its impact on Bitcoin. Normally, U.S. bonds and treasury yields (which represent the U.S. government’s borrowing cost) don’t move in lockstep.

让我们分解美国经济的当前状态，以了解其对比特币的影响。通常，美国的债券和财政收益率（代表美国政府的借贷成本）不会锁定。

In simple terms, when the bond market declines, yields spike. Economists point to this dynamic as the catalyst behind Trump’s adjustment of his tariff policies.

简而言之，当债券市场下降时，会产生尖峰。经济学家指出，这种动态是特朗普调整其关税政策背后的催化剂。

On 9 April, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged by approximately 10bps, breaching the 4.5% mark – its highest level since mid-February.

4月9日，美国10年的国库收益率飙升了约10bps，违反了4.5％的成绩，这是自2月中旬以来的最高水平。

Source: Trading Economics

资料来源：交易经济学

Looking ahead to 2025, a large portion of U.S. debt will mature, triggering the need for refinancing. In fact, reports indicate that between $7 trillion and $9.2 trillion will require refinancing throughout the year.

展望2025年，美国很大一部分债务将成熟，这引发了再融资的需求。实际上，报告表明，全年需要再融资7万亿至9.2万亿美元。

The recent bond market crash – allegedly triggered by foreign sell-offs – has driven yields higher, elevating the government’s cost of borrowing. As a result, the likelihood of near-term rate cuts has diminished significantly. This has also undermined the U.S dollar’s image as a safe haven.

据称是由外国抛售引发的债券市场崩溃，使收益率更高，从而提高了政府的借贷成本。结果，近期降低率的可能性显着降低。这也破坏了美元作为避风港的形象。

Against this backdrop, the White House announced a 90-day tariff pause. And yet, the macro uncertainty is far from resolved. The U.S.-China trade conflict continues to escalate.

在此背景下，白宫宣布了90天的关税暂停。然而，宏观不确定性远未解决。美中贸易冲突继续升级。

In the face of this economic turbulence, Bitcoin has defied broader market sell-offs. Following a week of heavy selling pressure that briefly dragged prices below $75k, BTC staged a strong reversal. At press time, it had rallied by nearly 11% to reclaim $83,500.

面对这种经济动荡，比特币违反了更广泛的市场抛售。经过一周的销售压力，短暂地将价格拖到7.5万美元以下之后，BTC进行了强烈的逆转。在发稿时，收回$ 83,500的收入已汇总近11％。

Big money steps in

大笔款项

CryptoQuant data revealed that whales have been pivotal in absorbing recent market pressure. Since March, wallets holding between 1k and 10k BTC have acquired a significant 100k BTC.

加密数据显示，鲸鱼在吸收最近的市场压力方面一直是关键的。自3月以来，持有1K和10K BTC之间的钱包已经获得了100K BTC。

Further analysis found that long-term holders (LTHs) now command 13.60 million BTC – reflecting a 420k BTC hike in their holdings over the same period.

进一步的分析发现，长期持有人（LTHS）现在指挥136亿BTC - 反映了同一时期的持股中420k BTC的加息。

Right now, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for LTHs is 0.68. This indicated that on average, these holders may be sitting on 68% unrealized profits.

目前，LTHS的净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）为0.68。这表明，平均而言，这些持有人可能坐落在68％未实现的利润上。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

From a mathematical standpoint, given Bitcoin’s press time market price of $83,500, the implied average acquisition price for LTHs would be approximately $49,702.38.

从数学的角度来看，鉴于比特币的新闻时间市场价格为83,500美元，LTHS的平均收购价约为49,702.38美元。

Notably, the NUPL has yet to enter the euphoria phase – an indicator often seen at market tops. For reference, during Bitcoin’s rally to $109k in January, the NUPL hit 0.76, marking a significant point of market exuberance.

值得注意的是，NUPL尚未进入欣快阶段 - 这是市场顶部经常看到的指标。作为参考，在比特币在一月份的集会上升至109K美元期间，NUPL达到了0.76，标志着市场的重要点。

However, the broader macroeconomic environment remains a key variable. Just like Ethereum saw massive capitulation from LTHs after the trade-driven pump, Bitcoin could face similar pressure. While the 90-day tariff pause provides some temporary relief, it will eventually end. This could reignite volatility.

但是，更广泛的宏观经济环境仍然是关键变量。就像以太坊在以贸易型泵后的LTH量投降一样，比特币也可能面临类似的压力。尽管90天的关税停顿提供了一些暂时的缓解，但最终将结束。这可能会重新启动波动。

Additionally, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to weigh heavily on the market, with investors watching closely. Because of this, it’s still too early to call Bitcoin’s current resilience a sign of a parabolic run. Caution is still the best approach.

此外，正在进行的美国 - 中国贸易战争继续在市场上重视，投资者密切关注。因此，将比特币当前的韧性称为抛物线型跑步还为时过早。谨慎仍然是最好的方法。