美國大選前夕，比特幣 (BTC) 波動性躍升至 3 個月高點

加密貨幣和傳統市場的投資者押注即將到來的美國總統大選將引發價格波動。

A gauge of bitcoin (BTC) price volatility hit a three-month high on Sunday amid indications from betting markets of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race in crucial swing states.

週日，比特幣（BTC）價格波動指標觸及三個月高位，博彩市場顯示美國總統競選在關鍵搖擺州競爭激烈。

An options-based measure of expected price swings in bitcoin (BTC) has hit a three-month high amid indications from betting markets of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race in crucial swing states.

由於博彩市場顯示美國總統競選在關鍵搖擺州競爭激烈，基於選擇權的比特幣（BTC）預期價格波動指標已觸及三個月高點。

Bitcoin (BTC) seven-day implied volatility (7-day IV) hit an annualized 74.4% on Sunday, according to charting platform TradingView.

根據圖表平台 TradingView 的數據，比特幣 (BTC) 7 天隱含波動率（7 天 IV）週日達到年化 74.4%。

The seven-day realized or historical volatility was 41.4% at press time. Implied volatility is a gauge of traders’ expectations for price movement over a specified period.

截至發稿時，7 天實際波動率或歷史波動率為 41.4%。隱含波動率是衡量交易者對特定時期內價格變動的預期的指標。

That indicates “a significant risk premium around the elections,” Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

總部位於新加坡的加密貨幣交易公司 QCP Capital 在 Telegram 廣播中表示，這表明「選舉前後存在巨大的風險溢價」。

Early Sunday, the probability of pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the critical swing state of Pennsylvania weakened sharply to 53% from 61% on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket.

週日早些時候，在去中心化預測平台 Polymarket 上，支持加密貨幣的共和黨候選人唐納德·川普贏得關鍵搖擺州賓夕法尼亞州的可能性從 61% 急劇下降至 53%。

Meanwhile, the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released early Sunday showed Trump and Harris tied at 48%, with Harris leading by two points in a Marist survey that includes undecided voters. In U.S. politics, a swing state is any state a Democrat or Republican candidate could reasonably take. The presidential election is due on Nov. 5, with results to be announced on Nov. 8.

與此同時，《紐約時報》/錫耶納週日早些時候發布的對可能選民的民意調查顯示，川普和哈里斯的支持率持平，均為48%，其中哈里斯在Marist 的一項包括尚未做出決定的選民的調查中領先兩個百分點。在美國政治中，搖擺州是指民主黨或共和黨候選人可以合理選擇的任何州。總統選舉將於 11 月 5 日舉行，結果將於 11 月 8 日公佈。

BTC almost hit record highs early this week, rising to $73,500 Tuesday as betting platforms pointed to a comfortable Trump lead. Since then, however, Trump's odds and BTC's price have retreated, with the latter falling below $68,000 early today.

比特幣本周初幾乎創下歷史新高，週二升至 73,500 美元，因為投注平台表明川普將輕鬆領先。然而，自此之後，川普的賠率和 BTC 的價格均有所回落，後者今天早些時候跌破 68,000 美元。

Vol spike in legacy markets

傳統市場的成交量飆升

Options-based metrics, measuring expected price turbulence over four weeks, have also jumped in foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury markets.

衡量四週內預期價格波動的基於選擇權的指標也在外匯和美國國債市場上大幅上漲。

The Ice BofA Move index, a measure of 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, jumped to 135% Friday, the highest since October 2023.

衡量美國公債 30 天隱含波動率的 Ice BofA Move 指數週五躍升至 135%，為 2023 年 10 月以來的最高水準。

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which play a significant role in global leveraged financing, causes liquidity tightening and often leads to traders trimming their exposure to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

在全球槓桿融資中發揮重要作用的美國國債波動性加劇，導致流動性收緊，並常常導致交易者削減加密貨幣等風險資產的敞口。

Elsewhere, the one-week implied volatility in EUR/USD, the most liquid pair in the currency markets, rose to its highest since the mini-U.S. banking crisis of March 2023.

其他方面，貨幣市場流動性最強的貨幣對歐元/美元的一周隱含波動率升至 2023 年 3 月美國小型銀行業危機以來的最高水準。