美国大选前夕，比特币 (BTC) 波动性跃升至 3 个月高点

加密货币和传统市场的投资者押注即将到来的美国总统大选将引发价格波动。

A gauge of bitcoin (BTC) price volatility hit a three-month high on Sunday amid indications from betting markets of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race in crucial swing states.

周日，比特币（BTC）价格波动性指标触及三个月高位，博彩市场显示美国总统竞选在关键摇摆州竞争激烈。

An options-based measure of expected price swings in bitcoin (BTC) has hit a three-month high amid indications from betting markets of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race in crucial swing states.

由于博彩市场显示美国总统竞选在关键摇摆州竞争激烈，基于期权的比特币（BTC）预期价格波动指标已触及三个月高点。

Bitcoin (BTC) seven-day implied volatility (7-day IV) hit an annualized 74.4% on Sunday, according to charting platform TradingView.

根据图表平台 TradingView 的数据，比特币 (BTC) 7 天隐含波动率（7 天 IV）周日达到年化 74.4%。

The seven-day realized or historical volatility was 41.4% at press time. Implied volatility is a gauge of traders’ expectations for price movement over a specified period.

截至发稿时，7 天实际波动率或历史波动率为 41.4%。隐含波动率是衡量交易者对特定时期内价格变动的预期的指标。

That indicates “a significant risk premium around the elections,” Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

总部位于新加坡的加密货币交易公司 QCP Capital 在 Telegram 广播中表示，这表明“选举前后存在巨大的风险溢价”。

Early Sunday, the probability of pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the critical swing state of Pennsylvania weakened sharply to 53% from 61% on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket.

周日早些时候，在去中心化预测平台 Polymarket 上，支持加密货币的共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普赢得关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州的可能性从 61% 急剧下降至 53%。

Meanwhile, the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released early Sunday showed Trump and Harris tied at 48%, with Harris leading by two points in a Marist survey that includes undecided voters. In U.S. politics, a swing state is any state a Democrat or Republican candidate could reasonably take. The presidential election is due on Nov. 5, with results to be announced on Nov. 8.

与此同时，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳周日早些时候发布的对可能选民的民意调查显示，特朗普和哈里斯的支持率持平，均为 48%，其中哈里斯在 Marist 的一项包括尚未做出决定的选民的调查中领先两个百分点。在美国政治中，摇摆州是指民主党或共和党候选人可以合理选择的任何州。总统选举将于 11 月 5 日举行，结果将于 11 月 8 日公布。

BTC almost hit record highs early this week, rising to $73,500 Tuesday as betting platforms pointed to a comfortable Trump lead. Since then, however, Trump's odds and BTC's price have retreated, with the latter falling below $68,000 early today.

比特币本周初几乎创下历史新高，周二升至 73,500 美元，因为投注平台显示特朗普将轻松领先。然而，自此之后，特朗普的赔率和 BTC 的价格均有所回落，后者今天早些时候跌破 68,000 美元。

Vol spike in legacy markets

传统市场的成交量飙升

Options-based metrics, measuring expected price turbulence over four weeks, have also jumped in foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury markets.

衡量四个星期内预期价格波动的基于期权的指标也在外汇和美国国债市场上大幅上涨。

The Ice BofA Move index, a measure of 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, jumped to 135% Friday, the highest since October 2023.

衡量美国国债 30 天隐含波动率的 Ice BofA Move 指数周五跃升至 135%，为 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which play a significant role in global leveraged financing, causes liquidity tightening and often leads to traders trimming their exposure to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

在全球杠杆融资中发挥重要作用的美国国债波动性加剧，导致流动性收紧，并常常导致交易者削减加密货币等风险资产的敞口。

Elsewhere, the one-week implied volatility in EUR/USD, the most liquid pair in the currency markets, rose to its highest since the mini-U.S. banking crisis of March 2023.

其他方面，货币市场流动性最强的货币对欧元/美元的一周隐含波动率升至 2023 年 3 月美国小型银行业危机以来的最高水平。