比特幣（BTC）2024年回顧：ETF批准、減半和美國大選推動市場變化

2024年，比特幣一路上漲突破10萬美元大關，為數位資產發展樹立了新的里程碑。

Bitcoin price rose over 131% for the year, and ETF holdings exceeded 1.12 million BTC.

比特幣價格年內上漲超過131%，ETF持有量超過112萬枚BTC。

In 2024, Bitcoin's price rose from $42,208 at the beginning of the year to $97,851 at the end of the year (as of December 20), achieving an annual increase of 131.83%. On December 17, it strongly broke through the $100,000 mark, setting a historical record of $106,074, with the highest annual increase of approximately 151.31%. Although there was a slight pullback at the end of the year, the price still operated at historical highs.

2024年，比特幣價格從年初的42,208美元上漲至年底（截至12月20日）的97,851美元，實現年漲幅131.83%。 12月17日強勢突破10萬美元大關，創下10,6074美元的歷史紀錄，最高年度漲幅約151.31%。雖然年底出現小幅回檔，但價格仍運行在歷史高點。

Overall, this year, Bitcoin experienced three phases: "rise - consolidation - rise," which corresponded to the three major events: "ETF approval," "fourth halving," and "U.S. presidential election." In summary, this year's rise in Bitcoin cannot be solely attributed to the supply scarcity brought by halving, or at least not completely to the traditional logic of supply scarcity. The approval of ETFs and the results of the U.S. elections indicate that the main driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices is the gradually friendly and loose regulatory environment, which has attracted a large amount of institutional capital into the market, injecting liquidity and further boosting prices.

整體來看，今年以來，比特幣經歷了「上漲-盤整-上漲」三個階段，對應「ETF核准」、「第四次減半」、「美國總統大選」三大事件。綜上所述，今年比特幣的上漲不能只歸因於減半帶來的供應稀缺，或至少不完全歸因於供應稀缺的傳統邏輯。 ETF的核准和美國大選結果表明，比特幣價格上漲的主要推動力是逐漸友好寬鬆的監管環境，吸引了大量機構資金進入市場，注入流動性，進一步提振比特幣價格上漲。

According to glassnode data, the proportion of profitable chips at the end of the year reached 90.16% (as of December 20), which is at a historical high. From a profit strategy perspective, LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR (the output profit ratio of long-term holders/short-term holders) rose from 1.55 at the beginning of the year to 2.11 at the end of the year, with an annual average of 2.16. Especially after late November, this ratio was greater than 3 multiple times, peaking above 4. A value greater than 1 indicates that the profit level of long-term holders is higher than that of short-term holders, and the larger the value, the higher the profit level of long-term holders.

glassnode數據顯示，年末獲利晶片佔比達90.16%（截至12月20日），處於歷史高點。從獲利策略來看，LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR（長期持有者/短期持有者的產出利潤比）從年初的1.55上升到年末的2.11，年增長率平均2.16。尤其是11月下旬以後，該比率多次大於3，最高達到4以上。水準高於短期持有者。

Overall, this year, long-term holders had better profit levels, and this advantage became more pronounced as the year progressed. Additionally, from the overall price perspective, it can be observed that the profit level peak for long-term holders appeared earlier than the price peak, indicating that long-term holders tend to reduce risk exposure earlier when the market approaches overheating.

總體而言，今年長期持有者的利潤水準較好，而且隨著年份的推移，這種優勢變得更加明顯。另外，從整體價格來看，長期持有者的利潤水平峰值出現得早於價格峰值，這表明長期持有者傾向於在市場接近過熱時更早地降低風險敞口。

This year's Bitcoin trading market saw both volume and price increase steadily, with rising prices accompanied by increased trading volume.

今年的比特幣交易市場量價齊升，價格上漲伴隨著交易量的增加。

According to statistics, the average daily trading volume for Bitcoin was approximately $38.354 billion, with the highest single-day trading volume exceeding $190.4 billion. The trading peak occurred after November, with average daily trading volumes in November and December reaching $74.897 billion and $96.543 billion, significantly exceeding the previous monthly average of $30.8 billion.

根據統計，比特幣每日平均交易額約383.54億美元，最高單日交易額超過1,904億美元。交易高峰出現在11月之後，11月和12月日均交易量分別達到748.97億美元和965.43億美元，大幅超過此前月均308億美元。

The futures market was also active. The total open interest grew from $10.915 billion at the beginning of the year to $30.948 billion at the end of the year, an annual increase of 183.53%, showing significant growth.

期貨市場也表現活躍。持倉總額從年初的109.15億美元成長至年末的309.48億美元，較去年同期成長183.53%，呈現大幅成長。

As one of the main factors driving the rise in Bitcoin prices, the asset holdings of various ETFs have been a focus throughout the year. According to statistics, the total holdings of Bitcoin ETFs rose from 619,500 BTC at the beginning to 11.2006 million BTC at the end of the year, with a strong annual growth of 80.87%. The rapid growth period coincided with the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices, occurring in February-March and after November.

作為推動比特幣價格上漲的主要因素之一，各類ETF的資產持有情況一直是全年關注的焦點。根據統計，比特幣ETF總持有量從年初的61.95萬BTC成長至年末的1120.06萬BTC，年增率高達80.87%。快速增長期與比特幣價格快速上漲同時發生，發生在2月至3月以及11月之後。

Currently, BlackRock's holdings have reached 524,500 BTC, making it the largest ETF by size. In addition, Grayscale and Fidelity also hold significant amounts, with 210,300 BTC and 209,900 BTC, respectively. The holdings of other ETFs are relatively low, mostly below 50,000 BTC.

目前，貝萊德持有的比特幣數量已達 524,500 枚，是規模最大的 ETF。此外，灰階和富達也持有大量比特幣，分別為 210,300 BTC 和 209,900 BTC。其他ETF的持倉量相對較低，大多在5萬BTC以下。

In addition to ETFs, an increasing number of listed companies have also become buyers of Bitcoin, which may bring more possibilities to the market. According to statistics, the company with the largest holdings is MicroStrategy, which holds a total of 439,000 BTC, surpassing many ETFs. Additionally, leading companies in the North American Bitcoin mining sector, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms, also hold relatively large amounts, exceeding 40,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, respectively.

除了ETF之外，越來越多的上市公司也成為了比特幣的買家，這可能會為市場帶來更多的可能性。根據統計，持倉量最大的公司是MicroStrategy，共持有43.9萬枚BTC，超過眾多ETF。此外，北美比特幣挖礦領域的龍頭公司Marathon Digital Holdings和Riot Platforms持有的比特幣數量也較大，分別超過40,000 BTC和10,000 BTC。