Bitcoin (BTC) Review of 2024: ETF Approval, Halving, and US Elections Drive Market Changes

In 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark in an upward trend, establishing a new milestone for the development of digital assets.

Bitcoin price rose over 131% for the year, and ETF holdings exceeded 1.12 million BTC.

In 2024, Bitcoin's price rose from $42,208 at the beginning of the year to $97,851 at the end of the year (as of December 20), achieving an annual increase of 131.83%. On December 17, it strongly broke through the $100,000 mark, setting a historical record of $106,074, with the highest annual increase of approximately 151.31%. Although there was a slight pullback at the end of the year, the price still operated at historical highs.

Overall, this year, Bitcoin experienced three phases: "rise - consolidation - rise," which corresponded to the three major events: "ETF approval," "fourth halving," and "U.S. presidential election." In summary, this year's rise in Bitcoin cannot be solely attributed to the supply scarcity brought by halving, or at least not completely to the traditional logic of supply scarcity. The approval of ETFs and the results of the U.S. elections indicate that the main driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices is the gradually friendly and loose regulatory environment, which has attracted a large amount of institutional capital into the market, injecting liquidity and further boosting prices.

According to glassnode data, the proportion of profitable chips at the end of the year reached 90.16% (as of December 20), which is at a historical high. From a profit strategy perspective, LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR (the output profit ratio of long-term holders/short-term holders) rose from 1.55 at the beginning of the year to 2.11 at the end of the year, with an annual average of 2.16. Especially after late November, this ratio was greater than 3 multiple times, peaking above 4. A value greater than 1 indicates that the profit level of long-term holders is higher than that of short-term holders, and the larger the value, the higher the profit level of long-term holders.

Overall, this year, long-term holders had better profit levels, and this advantage became more pronounced as the year progressed. Additionally, from the overall price perspective, it can be observed that the profit level peak for long-term holders appeared earlier than the price peak, indicating that long-term holders tend to reduce risk exposure earlier when the market approaches overheating.

This year's Bitcoin trading market saw both volume and price increase steadily, with rising prices accompanied by increased trading volume.

According to statistics, the average daily trading volume for Bitcoin was approximately $38.354 billion, with the highest single-day trading volume exceeding $190.4 billion. The trading peak occurred after November, with average daily trading volumes in November and December reaching $74.897 billion and $96.543 billion, significantly exceeding the previous monthly average of $30.8 billion.

The futures market was also active. The total open interest grew from $10.915 billion at the beginning of the year to $30.948 billion at the end of the year, an annual increase of 183.53%, showing significant growth.

As one of the main factors driving the rise in Bitcoin prices, the asset holdings of various ETFs have been a focus throughout the year. According to statistics, the total holdings of Bitcoin ETFs rose from 619,500 BTC at the beginning to 11.2006 million BTC at the end of the year, with a strong annual growth of 80.87%. The rapid growth period coincided with the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices, occurring in February-March and after November.

Currently, BlackRock's holdings have reached 524,500 BTC, making it the largest ETF by size. In addition, Grayscale and Fidelity also hold significant amounts, with 210,300 BTC and 209,900 BTC, respectively. The holdings of other ETFs are relatively low, mostly below 50,000 BTC.

In addition to ETFs, an increasing number of listed companies have also become buyers of Bitcoin, which may bring more possibilities to the market. According to statistics, the company with the largest holdings is MicroStrategy, which holds a total of 439,000 BTC, surpassing many ETFs. Additionally, leading companies in the North American Bitcoin mining sector, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms, also hold relatively large amounts, exceeding 40,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, respectively.