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加密貨幣新聞文章

比特幣(BTC)價格與短期持有者成本基礎仍有顯著差距

2025/01/01 04:00

在 X 上的一篇新文章中,鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 討論了比特幣短期持有者利潤損失狀況的趨勢。

比特幣(BTC)價格與短期持有者成本基礎仍有顯著差距

The price of Bitcoin has shown to be stalling at a key level that could be signaling an upcoming sell-off from a particular group of the market.

比特幣的價格已顯示出停滯在一個關鍵水平,這可能預示著特定市場群體即將出現拋售。

What Is The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Right Now?

目前比特幣短期持有者的成本基礎是什麼?

Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped below the $92,000 level, but the cryptocurrency has since found a small rebound and is now trading around the $94,500 price point.

昨天,BTC 短暫跌破 92,000 美元水平,但此後出現小幅反彈,目前交易價格在 94,500 美元附近。

Despite the recent slowdown in the rally, Bitcoin is still up by an impressive 120% year-to-date performance. This uptrend has put a spotlight on the profit-loss status of different investor cohorts in the market.

儘管近期漲勢放緩,但比特幣今年迄今仍上漲了 120%,令人印象深刻。這種上升趨勢使市場上不同投資者群體的獲利虧損狀況成為人們關注的焦點。

One way to gauge the average cost basis of the market is to use the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This indicator compares the market capitalization of an asset to its realized capitalization.

衡量市場平均成本基礎的一種方法是使用市場價值與實現價值 (MVRV) 比率。此指標將資產的市值與其已實現資本進行比較。

The realized capitalization is an on-chain price model that assumes the “real” value of each token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

已實現資本化是一個鏈上價格模型,假設流通中的每個代幣的「真實」價值是其最後在區塊鏈上交易的價格。

Since the last transfer of any coin is likely to correspond to the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is nothing, but the sum of the capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency.

由於任何硬幣的最後一次轉移可能對應於它最後一次易手,因此當時的價格可以被視為其當前的成本基礎。因此,已實現的上限什麼都不是,而是投資者作為一個整體用於購買加密貨幣的資本總和。

In contrast, the market capitalization represents the value that the holders are carrying right now. Comparing these two models gives us an idea of the average profit or loss in the network.

相比之下,市值代表了持有者目前所持有的價值。比較這兩個模型可以讓我們了解網路中的平均利潤或損失。

The traditional MVRV Ratio measures this for the entire market, but a version of the metric that is of interest in the current topic is that specifically for the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

傳統的 MVRV 比率針對整個市場進行衡量,但當前主題感興趣的指標版本是專門針對短期持有者 (STH) 的,即在過去 155 天內購買代幣的投資者。

Below is a chart shared by the analytics firm Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the past year or so.

以下是分析公司 Glassnode 分享的圖表,顯示了過去一年左右比特幣 STH MVRV 比率的趨勢。

The average cost basis of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is currently at $86,800.

比特幣短期持有者 (STH) 的平均成本基礎目前為 86,800 美元。

Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio Shows Profits Held By Cohort Still Outweigh Losses

比特幣 STH MVRV 比率顯示同類群體持有的利潤仍大於損失

As you can see in the graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio spiked to notable levels above the 1 mark when the recent leg up in the BTC rally took place. The indicator being above this value implies the market cap of the group is greater than its realized cap, and so, the average member is in a state of profit.

正如您在圖表中看到的,當 BTC 近期上漲時,比特幣 STH MVRV 比率飆升至高於 1 的顯著水平。該指標高於該值意味著該集團的市值大於其已實現的市值,因此,平均成員處於盈利狀態。

Recently, as the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price has occurred, the indicator has naturally gone down. Its value still remains above the 1 level, though, suggesting profits held by the cohort still outstrip the losses.

最近,隨著加密貨幣價格的下跌,該指標自然也下降了。不過,其價值仍維持在 1 水準之上,顯示該群體持有的利潤仍超過損失。

At present, the STH MVRV Ratio is sitting at 1.08, which corresponds to the group holding unrealized gains of around 8%. Historically, the STHs have shown to represent the fickle-minded side of the market that easily participates in selloffs, so their being in large profits has tended to be a danger sign for the price.

目前,STH MVRV 比率為 1.08,相當於該集團持有約 8% 的未實現收益。從歷史上看,STH 已被證明代表了市場變化無常的一面,很容易參與拋售,因此它們的巨額利潤往往是價格的危險信號。

The cohort is no longer making significant profits after the drawdown, but perhaps a cooldown may need to happen if the risk of profit-taking has to go away. A metric that makes it convenient to track when this could happen is the “Realized Price,” which is derived from the realized cap by dividing it with the total number of tokens in circulation.

資金回撤後,該群體不再賺取可觀利潤,但如果獲利了結的風險必須消失,也許可能需要一段時間的冷卻。可以方便地追蹤何時發生這種情況的一個指標是“已實現價格”,它是通過將已實現上限除以流通中的代幣總數而得出的。

From the chart, it’s visible that the STH Realized Price has a value of $86,800 right now, which means the group will be just breaking-even on its investment if Bitcoin falls to this level.

從圖表中可以看出,STH 目前的實際價格為 86,800 美元,這意味著如果比特幣跌至這一水平,該集團的投資將剛剛實現收支平衡。

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2025年01月04日 其他文章發表於