比特币（BTC）价格与短期持有者成本基础仍存在显着差距

在 X 上的一篇新帖子中，链上分析公司 Glassnode 讨论了比特币短期持有者利润损失状况的趋势。

The price of Bitcoin has shown to be stalling at a key level that could be signaling an upcoming sell-off from a particular group of the market.

比特币的价格已显示出停滞在一个关键水平，这可能预示着特定市场群体即将出现抛售。

What Is The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Right Now?

目前比特币短期持有者的成本基础是什么？

Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped below the $92,000 level, but the cryptocurrency has since found a small rebound and is now trading around the $94,500 price point.

昨天，BTC 短暂跌破 92,000 美元水平，但此后出现小幅反弹，目前交易价格在 94,500 美元附近。

Despite the recent slowdown in the rally, Bitcoin is still up by an impressive 120% year-to-date performance. This uptrend has put a spotlight on the profit-loss status of different investor cohorts in the market.

尽管近期涨势放缓，但比特币今年迄今仍上涨了 120%，令人印象深刻。这种上升趋势使市场上不同投资者群体的盈利亏损状况成为人们关注的焦点。

One way to gauge the average cost basis of the market is to use the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This indicator compares the market capitalization of an asset to its realized capitalization.

衡量市场平均成本基础的一种方法是使用市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 比率。该指标将资产的市值与其已实现资本进行比较。

The realized capitalization is an on-chain price model that assumes the “real” value of each token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

已实现资本化是一个链上价格模型，假设流通中的每个代币的“真实”价值是其最后在区块链上交易的价格。

Since the last transfer of any coin is likely to correspond to the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is nothing, but the sum of the capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency.

由于任何硬币的最后一次转移可能对应于它最后一次易手，因此当时的价格可以被视为其当前的成本基础。因此，已实现的上限什么都不是，而是投资者作为一个整体用于购买加密货币的资本总和。

In contrast, the market capitalization represents the value that the holders are carrying right now. Comparing these two models gives us an idea of the average profit or loss in the network.

相比之下，市值代表了持有人目前所持有的价值。比较这两个模型可以让我们了解网络中的平均利润或损失。

The traditional MVRV Ratio measures this for the entire market, but a version of the metric that is of interest in the current topic is that specifically for the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

传统的 MVRV 比率针对整个市场进行衡量，但当前主题感兴趣的指标版本是专门针对短期持有者 (STH) 的，即在过去 155 天内购买代币的投资者。

Below is a chart shared by the analytics firm Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the past year or so.

下面是分析公司 Glassnode 分享的图表，显示了过去一年左右比特币 STH MVRV 比率的趋势。

The average cost basis of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is currently at $86,800.

比特币短期持有者 (STH) 的平均成本基础目前为 86,800 美元。

Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio Shows Profits Held By Cohort Still Outweigh Losses

比特币 STH MVRV 比率显示同类群体持有的利润仍大于损失

As you can see in the graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio spiked to notable levels above the 1 mark when the recent leg up in the BTC rally took place. The indicator being above this value implies the market cap of the group is greater than its realized cap, and so, the average member is in a state of profit.

正如您在图表中看到的，当 BTC 近期上涨时，比特币 STH MVRV 比率飙升至高于 1 的显着水平。该指标高于该值意味着该集团的市值大于其已实现的市值，因此，平均成员处于盈利状态。

Recently, as the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price has occurred, the indicator has naturally gone down. Its value still remains above the 1 level, though, suggesting profits held by the cohort still outstrip the losses.

最近，随着加密货币价格的下跌，该指标自然也下降了。不过，其价值仍保持在 1 水平之上，表明该群体持有的利润仍超过损失。

At present, the STH MVRV Ratio is sitting at 1.08, which corresponds to the group holding unrealized gains of around 8%. Historically, the STHs have shown to represent the fickle-minded side of the market that easily participates in selloffs, so their being in large profits has tended to be a danger sign for the price.

目前，STH MVRV 比率为 1.08，相当于该集团持有约 8% 的未实现收益。从历史上看，STH 已被证明代表了市场变化无常的一面，很容易参与抛售，因此它们的巨额利润往往是价格的危险信号。

The cohort is no longer making significant profits after the drawdown, but perhaps a cooldown may need to happen if the risk of profit-taking has to go away. A metric that makes it convenient to track when this could happen is the “Realized Price,” which is derived from the realized cap by dividing it with the total number of tokens in circulation.

资金回撤后，该群体不再赚取可观利润，但如果获利了结的风险必须消失，也许可能需要一段时间的冷却。可以方便地跟踪何时发生这种情况的一个指标是“已实现价格”，它是通过将已实现上限除以流通中的代币总数而得出的。

From the chart, it’s visible that the STH Realized Price has a value of $86,800 right now, which means the group will be just breaking-even on its investment if Bitcoin falls to this level.

从图表中可以看出，STH 目前的实际价格为 86,800 美元，这意味着如果比特币跌至这一水平，该集团的投资将刚刚实现收支平衡。