Pakistan's COIN/CT Evolution: From Reactive to Proactive

Prior to 9/11 and subsequent U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, COIN/CT was not a primary area of focus for the Pakistani military.

Pakistan’s counterinsurgency (COIN) and counterterrorism (CT) efforts have largely centered around combating militant threats in the country’s border regions, particularly the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

In the years leading up to the 9/11 attacks and subsequent U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, COIN/CT was not a primary area of focus for the Pakistani military. Aside from sporadic, small-scale operations, each of the tri-services had operated upon the assumption that their main security threat was India.

However, following America’s entry into Afghanistan, insurgencies started flaring up in Pakistan’s border regions. These included groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI), and Ansar al-Sharia Pakistan (ASSP), among others. Each of these groups sought to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan and overthrow the state.

Pakistan’s early campaigns against these threats, such as Operational al-Mizan (2002-2006) and Operation Sherdil (2004-2006), exposed significant gaps in equipment, training, and doctrine. Both campaigns resulted in high levels of civilian casualties and, in turn, led to peace deals with the TTP.

Moreover, the heavy-handed tactics employed by the military led to a sense of alienation among local populations. At the time, Pakistan’s COIN/CT efforts were largely defined by poorly targeted air and artillery strikes.

However, it was around the mid-2000s that the Pakistan Army (PA) and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) both made COIN/CT a key priority in their respective modernization roadmaps. This shift in focus was largely driven by the TTP’s gains in Pakistan’s Northern Areas.

By 2009, the PA began implementing small-unit tactics while also providing its infantry with better personal protective gear and small arms. The PAF acquired intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets and precision-strike capabilities. Collectively, these changes helped Pakistan’s security forces reverse TTP and other militant gains in the Northern Areas and, in turn, contain the threat to FATA.

By 2014, Pakistan’s COIN/CT capacity matured to a point where it entered and fought the TTP in the latter’s strongholds in South and North Waziristan. These operations, code-named Zarb-e-Azb and Khyber-I, respectively, largely succeeded in pushing the TTP out of FATA and into Afghanistan.

In the years that followed, Pakistan’s COIN/CT capacity helped contain militant threats in the country’s border regions. However, by the late 2010s, Pakistan had hoped that it could move beyond COIN/CT and refocus on conventional threats.

Indeed, the 2020s saw Pakistan focus on procuring conventional arms, such as new main battle tanks (MBT), advanced fighter aircraft, and warships. This shift in focus was also driven by Pakistan’s desire to deter India along the Line of Control (LOC).

However, with COIN/CT resurfacing as a threat once again, the PA and PAF may once again be poised to adjust their respective procurement plans, at least in the short-term.