投资银行巨头瑞银集团预测美国经济将出现“无法着陆”的情况,并预测持续增长和可控通胀将支撑股市。
Investment banking behemoth UBS is predicting a “no landing” scenario for the U.S. economy, suggesting that sustained growth and manageable inflation will support equities. In a report on Friday,彙整 by the UBS editorial team, the banking giant highlighted the Federal Reserve's rapid series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to counter high inflation and strong economic expansion. This sparked ongoing debates about whether the Fed could manage a soft landing or drive the economy into a recession. However, UBS suggests there could be a third path, where inflation approaches the Fed’s target while economic growth continues to exceed prior expectations. Recent data suggests that the U.S. economy is moving toward this ‘no landing’ scenario. Recent economic data seems to be supporting this outlook. The labor market has been more resilient than anticipated, with the latest nonfarm payroll report beating expectations and pushing the three-month average to a robust 186,000. Revisions to the past five years of data indicate that GDP growth has averaged 2.5% per year since 2019, showing stronger performance than initially expected. While industrial production dropped 0.3% in September due to factors such as the Boeing strike and hurricanes, retail sales saw a 0.4% rise, reflecting healthy household finances and income gains.
投资银行巨头瑞银集团预测美国经济将出现“无法着陆”的情况,这表明持续增长和可控的通胀将支撑股市。在瑞银编辑团队周五发布的一份报告中,这家银行业巨头强调了美联储将在2022年进行一系列快速加息,以应对高通胀和强劲的经济扩张。这引发了关于美联储能否实现软着陆或将经济推入衰退的持续争论。然而,瑞银表示可能存在第三种路径,即通胀接近美联储目标,而经济增长继续超出先前预期。最近的数据表明,美国经济正在走向“无法着陆”的局面。最近的经济数据似乎支持了这一前景。劳动力市场比预期更具弹性,最新的非农就业报告超出预期,将三个月平均数推高至 186,000 人。对过去五年数据的修正表明,自2019年以来GDP年均增长2.5%,表现强于最初预期。虽然由于波音罢工和飓风等因素,9 月份工业生产下降 0.3%,但零售额增长 0.4%,反映出健康的家庭财务和收入增长。
UBS also highlighted that inflation is continuing to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target, allowing for more flexibility in rate cuts. While month-to-month inflation figures can fluctuate, the overall disinflationary trend remains intact. Noting that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, recently recorded its lowest level since February 2021, UBS analysts stated: We believe inflation will be low enough for the Fed to continue cutting rates. Looking ahead, UBS anticipates market volatility as the U.S. presidential election approaches but does not expect it to undermine the broader economic momentum.
瑞银还强调,通胀继续朝着美联储的目标发展,这使得降息具有更大的灵活性。尽管逐月通胀数据可能会波动,但总体通货紧缩趋势保持不变。瑞银分析师指出,美联储首选的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数最近录得2021年2月以来的最低水平,我们认为通胀将低至足以让美联储继续降息。展望未来,瑞银预计,随着美国总统大选的临近,市场将出现波动,但预计这不会破坏更广泛的经济势头。
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