投資銀行巨頭瑞銀集團預測美國經濟將出現「無法登陸」的情況,並預測持續成長和可控通膨將支撐股市。
Investment banking behemoth UBS is predicting a “no landing” scenario for the U.S. economy, suggesting that sustained growth and manageable inflation will support equities. In a report on Friday,彙整 by the UBS editorial team, the banking giant highlighted the Federal Reserve's rapid series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to counter high inflation and strong economic expansion. This sparked ongoing debates about whether the Fed could manage a soft landing or drive the economy into a recession. However, UBS suggests there could be a third path, where inflation approaches the Fed’s target while economic growth continues to exceed prior expectations. Recent data suggests that the U.S. economy is moving toward this ‘no landing’ scenario. Recent economic data seems to be supporting this outlook. The labor market has been more resilient than anticipated, with the latest nonfarm payroll report beating expectations and pushing the three-month average to a robust 186,000. Revisions to the past five years of data indicate that GDP growth has averaged 2.5% per year since 2019, showing stronger performance than initially expected. While industrial production dropped 0.3% in September due to factors such as the Boeing strike and hurricanes, retail sales saw a 0.4% rise, reflecting healthy household finances and income gains.
投資銀行巨頭瑞銀集團預測美國經濟將出現「無法登陸」的情況,這表明持續成長和可控的通膨將支撐股市。在瑞銀編輯團隊週五發布的一份報告中,這家銀行業巨頭強調了聯準會將在2022年進行一系列快速升息,以應對高通膨和強勁的經濟擴張。這引發了關於聯準會能否實現軟著陸或將經濟推入衰退的持續爭論。然而,瑞銀表示可能存在第三種路徑,即通膨接近聯準會目標,而經濟成長持續超出先前預期。最近的數據表明,美國經濟正在走向「無法著陸」的局面。最近的經濟數據似乎支持了這一前景。勞動市場比預期更具彈性,最新的非農就業報告超出預期,將三個月平均數推高至 186,000 人。對過去五年數據的修正表明,自2019年以來GDP年均增長2.5%,表現強於最初預期。雖然由於波音罷工和颶風等因素,9 月工業生產下降 0.3%,但零售額成長 0.4%,反映出健康的家庭財務和收入成長。
UBS also highlighted that inflation is continuing to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target, allowing for more flexibility in rate cuts. While month-to-month inflation figures can fluctuate, the overall disinflationary trend remains intact. Noting that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, recently recorded its lowest level since February 2021, UBS analysts stated: We believe inflation will be low enough for the Fed to continue cutting rates. Looking ahead, UBS anticipates market volatility as the U.S. presidential election approaches but does not expect it to undermine the broader economic momentum.
瑞銀也強調,通膨繼續朝著聯準會的目標發展,這使得降息具有更大的靈活性。儘管逐月通膨數據可能會波動,但整體通貨緊縮趨勢保持不變。瑞銀分析師指出,聯準會首選的通膨指標個人消費支出物價指數最近錄得2021年2月以來的最低水平,我們認為通膨將低至足以讓聯準會繼續降息。展望未來,瑞銀預計,隨著美國總統大選的臨近,市場將出現波動,但預計這不會破壞更廣泛的經濟勢頭。
免責聲明:info@kdj.com
所提供的資訊並非交易建議。 kDJ.com對任何基於本文提供的資訊進行的投資不承擔任何責任。加密貨幣波動性較大,建議您充分研究後謹慎投資!
如果您認為本網站使用的內容侵犯了您的版權,請立即聯絡我們(info@kdj.com),我們將及時刪除。