王牌：当保护主义成为经济回旋镖时

经济风暴的阴影笼罩着，充满了鲜红色和不可预测的实用主义。 “王牌” - 听起来像是一种警告的新神学主义 - 封装了对贸易战的日益关注，并带来了不可预见的后果。

The shadow of an economic storm looms, tinted with a bright red and unpredictable pragmatism. The “Trumpcession” – this neologism that sounds like a warning – encapsulates the growing concern over a trade war with unforeseen consequences.

经济风暴的阴影笼罩着，充满了鲜红色和不可预测的实用主义。 “王牌” - 听起来像是一种警告的新神学主义 - 封装了对贸易战的日益关注，并带来了不可预见的后果。

Caught between stimulus and restriction, the Fed and the Bank of England find themselves stuck between rates to adjust and a threatening inflation.

在刺激和限制之间，美联储和英格兰银行发现自己陷入了调整和威胁通货膨胀的速度之间。

The shadow of an economic storm looms, tinted with a bright red and unpredictable pragmatism. The “Trumpcession” – this neologism that sounds like a warning – encapsulates the growing concern over a trade war with unforeseen consequences.

经济风暴的阴影笼罩着，充满了鲜红色和不可预测的实用主义。 “王牌” - 听起来像是一种警告的新神学主义 - 封装了对贸易战的日益关注，并带来了不可预见的后果。

The promises of Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs are not just simple rhetoric. They act as a catalyst, transforming fears into tangible realities.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的积极关税的承诺不仅是简单的言论。他们充当催化剂，将恐惧转变为有形的现实。

In February 2025, the Conference Board’s Purchasing Managers’ Index plunged, revealing an unprecedented distrust since four years. American consumers, the historic engine of growth, are cutting back on their spending. An alarming signal: when confidence falters, recession looms.

2025年2月，会议委员会的采购经理的指数跌落，揭示了自四年以来前所未有的不信任。美国消费者是历史悠久的增长引擎，正在减少支出。一个令人震惊的信号：当信心动摇时，衰退临近。

However, the most insidious effect could come from import costs. High tariffs on foreign products would drive up prices, fueling an already persistent inflation.

但是，最阴险的效果可能来自进口成本。外国产品的高关税将提高价格，从而加剧了已经持续的通货膨胀。

“Inflationary pressures and economic slowdown create a vise,” explains Nigel Green, from deVere.

Devere的Nigel Green解释说：“通货膨胀压力和经济放缓产生了虎钳。”

The Fed, used to juggling cycles, faces a fragile balance. Lowering rates to stimulate borrowing? Risking a price surge? The choice is a tough one.

美联储曾经杂耍周期，面临脆弱的平衡。降低刺激借贷的费率？冒险冒险？选择是一个艰难的选择。

In parallel, the Trump administration seems indifferent to market tremors. Worse, a drop in production is sometimes viewed as a necessary evil to “rebalance” trade.

同时，特朗普政府似乎对市场震颤无动于衷。更糟糕的是，有时将生产下降视为“重新平衡”贸易的必要邪恶。

A dangerous logic, according to experts: a prolonged trade war could suffocate entire sectors, from manufacturing to logistics. The Fed, in announcing its decision on rates this Wednesday, will have to choose between urgency and caution.

专家认为，危险的逻辑是：长时间的贸易战可能使整个部门从制造业到物流。美联储在本周三宣布其对费率的决定时，必须在紧迫性和谨慎之间进行选择。

Bank of England and Fed: A balancing act under pressure

英格兰银行和美联储：在压力下的平衡行为

Threadneedle Street and the Fed share a common scenario, but not the same tools. At the end of 2024, the Bank of England anticipated controlled inflation and rates below 4% in 2025.

Threadneedle街和美联储共享一个常见的情况，但不是相同的工具。在2024年底，英格兰银行预计将控制通货膨胀率和低于2025年的4％。

Today, the UK base rate stagnates at 4.5%, slightly exceeding that of the Fed (4.25% – 4.5%). A minimal gap, but revealing: both institutions must contend with weakened labor markets and defensive employers.

如今，英国的基本利率停滞为4.5％，略高于美联储（4.25％ - 4.5％）。最小的差距，但揭示：这两个机构都必须与劳动力市场疲软和防御性雇主抗衡。

In the UK, the construction and manufacturing sectors see unemployment rise, while layoffs multiply. A similar situation across the Atlantic, where job vacancies are dwindling.

在英国，建筑和制造业的失业率上升，而裁员则倍增。大西洋上的类似情况，职位空缺正在减少。

The difference? The impact of Trump tariffs on the American economy is more direct, exposing the Fed to a risk of overheating. The Bank of England, on the other hand, fears a knock-on effect: a rise in British import costs if the EU retaliates against U.S. measures.

区别？特朗普关税对美国经济的影响更加直接，使美联储的风险过热。另一方面，英格兰银行担心会产生连锁反应：如果欧盟对美国采取报复性的措施，英国进口成本的上涨。

However, a glimmer persists: borrowing. Lower rates could relieve households and businesses, but at what cost? “Take the lead, don’t follow,” insists Green. A proactive approach would entail gradual cuts now, rather than drastic measures later. However, taking a pause would allow for an assessment of the real impact of tariffs. On Thursday, the Bank of England will deliver its verdict, under the anxious gaze of investors. Even Elon Musk could fall victim, with Tesla at stake.maximize

但是，一线看：借来。较低的费率可以减轻家庭和企业，但是以多少代价？格林坚持说：“取得领先，不要跟随。”积极主动的方法现在需要逐步削减，而不是以后进行剧烈措施。但是，停顿将允许评估关税的实际影响。周四，英格兰银行将在投资者焦虑的凝视下作出裁决。甚至埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）也可能成为受害者，特斯拉（Tesla