王牌：當保護主義成為經濟迴旋鏢時

經濟風暴的陰影籠罩著，充滿了鮮紅色和不可預測的實用主義。 “王牌” - 聽起來像是一種警告的新神學主義 - 封裝了對貿易戰的日益關注，並帶來了不可預見的後果。

The shadow of an economic storm looms, tinted with a bright red and unpredictable pragmatism. The “Trumpcession” – this neologism that sounds like a warning – encapsulates the growing concern over a trade war with unforeseen consequences.

經濟風暴的陰影籠罩著，充滿了鮮紅色和不可預測的實用主義。 “王牌” - 聽起來像是一種警告的新神學主義 - 封裝了對貿易戰的日益關注，並帶來了不可預見的後果。

Caught between stimulus and restriction, the Fed and the Bank of England find themselves stuck between rates to adjust and a threatening inflation.

在刺激和限制之間，美聯儲和英格蘭銀行發現自己陷入了調整和威脅通貨膨脹的速度之間。

The shadow of an economic storm looms, tinted with a bright red and unpredictable pragmatism. The “Trumpcession” – this neologism that sounds like a warning – encapsulates the growing concern over a trade war with unforeseen consequences.

經濟風暴的陰影籠罩著，充滿了鮮紅色和不可預測的實用主義。 “王牌” - 聽起來像是一種警告的新神學主義 - 封裝了對貿易戰的日益關注，並帶來了不可預見的後果。

The promises of Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs are not just simple rhetoric. They act as a catalyst, transforming fears into tangible realities.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的積極關稅的承諾不僅是簡單的言論。他們充當催化劑，將恐懼轉變為有形的現實。

In February 2025, the Conference Board’s Purchasing Managers’ Index plunged, revealing an unprecedented distrust since four years. American consumers, the historic engine of growth, are cutting back on their spending. An alarming signal: when confidence falters, recession looms.

2025年2月，會議委員會的採購經理的指數跌落，揭示了自四年以來前所未有的不信任。美國消費者是歷史悠久的增長引擎，正在減少支出。一個令人震驚的信號：當信心動搖時，衰退臨近。

However, the most insidious effect could come from import costs. High tariffs on foreign products would drive up prices, fueling an already persistent inflation.

但是，最陰險的效果可能來自進口成本。外國產品的高關稅將提高價格，從而加劇了已經持續的通貨膨脹。

“Inflationary pressures and economic slowdown create a vise,” explains Nigel Green, from deVere.

Devere的Nigel Green解釋說：“通貨膨脹壓力和經濟放緩產生了虎鉗。”

The Fed, used to juggling cycles, faces a fragile balance. Lowering rates to stimulate borrowing? Risking a price surge? The choice is a tough one.

美聯儲曾經雜耍週期，面臨脆弱的平衡。降低刺激借貸的費率？冒險冒險？選擇是一個艱難的選擇。

In parallel, the Trump administration seems indifferent to market tremors. Worse, a drop in production is sometimes viewed as a necessary evil to “rebalance” trade.

同時，特朗普政府似乎對市場震顫無動於衷。更糟糕的是，有時將生產下降視為“重新平衡”貿易的必要邪惡。

A dangerous logic, according to experts: a prolonged trade war could suffocate entire sectors, from manufacturing to logistics. The Fed, in announcing its decision on rates this Wednesday, will have to choose between urgency and caution.

專家認為，危險的邏輯是：長時間的貿易戰可能使整個部門從製造業到物流。美聯儲在本週三宣布其對費率的決定時，必須在緊迫性和謹慎之間進行選擇。

Bank of England and Fed: A balancing act under pressure

英格蘭銀行和美聯儲：在壓力下的平衡行為

Threadneedle Street and the Fed share a common scenario, but not the same tools. At the end of 2024, the Bank of England anticipated controlled inflation and rates below 4% in 2025.

Threadneedle街和美聯儲共享一個常見的情況，但不是相同的工具。在2024年底，英格蘭銀行預計將控制通貨膨脹率和低於2025年的4％。

Today, the UK base rate stagnates at 4.5%, slightly exceeding that of the Fed (4.25% – 4.5%). A minimal gap, but revealing: both institutions must contend with weakened labor markets and defensive employers.

如今，英國的基本利率停滯為4.5％，略高於美聯儲（4.25％ - 4.5％）。最小的差距，但揭示：這兩個機構都必須與勞動力市場疲軟和防禦性雇主抗衡。

In the UK, the construction and manufacturing sectors see unemployment rise, while layoffs multiply. A similar situation across the Atlantic, where job vacancies are dwindling.

在英國，建築和製造業的失業率上升，而裁員則倍增。大西洋上的類似情況，職位空缺正在減少。

The difference? The impact of Trump tariffs on the American economy is more direct, exposing the Fed to a risk of overheating. The Bank of England, on the other hand, fears a knock-on effect: a rise in British import costs if the EU retaliates against U.S. measures.

區別？特朗普關稅對美國經濟的影響更加直接，使美聯儲的風險過熱。另一方面，英格蘭銀行擔心會產生連鎖反應：如果歐盟對美國採取報復性的措施，英國進口成本的上漲。

However, a glimmer persists: borrowing. Lower rates could relieve households and businesses, but at what cost? “Take the lead, don’t follow,” insists Green. A proactive approach would entail gradual cuts now, rather than drastic measures later. However, taking a pause would allow for an assessment of the real impact of tariffs. On Thursday, the Bank of England will deliver its verdict, under the anxious gaze of investors. Even Elon Musk could fall victim, with Tesla at stake.maximize

但是，一線看：借來。較低的費率可以減輕家庭和企業，但是以多少代價？格林堅持說：“取得領先，不要跟隨。”積極主動的方法現在需要逐步削減，而不是以後進行劇烈措施。但是，停頓將允許評估關稅的實際影響。週四，英格蘭銀行將在投資者焦慮的凝視下作出裁決。甚至埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）也可能成為受害者，特斯拉（Tesla