特朗普当选对金价的影响：短期波动，长期不确定性

特朗普竞选期间的多项政策可能对黄金产生重大影响，无论是积极还是消极。但这些政策实施的不确定性让我们保持谨慎和警惕。

Trump’s election to a second term has brought short-term volatility to gold prices. Historically, elections have had some impact on gold prices, but that impact tends to dissipate over time as the markets assess the actions of the new administration.

特朗普连任给金价带来短期波动。从历史上看，选举对金价产生过一些影响，但随着市场评估新政府的行动，这种影响往往会随着时间的推移而消失。

Trump's campaign featured several policies that could notably impact gold, both positively and negatively. Still, the uncertainty over which policies will be implemented leaves us in a state of caution and observation.

特朗普的竞选活动提出了几项可能对黄金产生显着影响的政策，无论是积极还是消极。尽管如此，哪些政策将实施的不确定性使我们处于谨慎和观察的状态。

For instance, he وعد hefty tariffs that could increase inflation and/or spark trade wars. He has وعد to deport illegal immigrants, which could shrink the labor force, slowing growth and pushing up prices. Trump has وعد to cut regulations, which could lead to higher profits and stock prices. He has وعد to cut government spending, which could slow the economy but shrink the budget deficit and slow the growth of the national debt. He has also وعد tax cuts, which could boost economic growth but widen the deficit.

例如，他主张征收高额关税，这可能会加剧通货膨胀和/或引发贸易战。他已驱逐非法移民，这可能会减少劳动力、减缓经济增长并推高物价。特朗普已取消监管，这可能会带来更高的利润和股价。他已经削减了政府支出，这可能会减缓经济增长，但会缩小预算赤字并减缓国家债务的增长。他还实施了减税政策，这可能会促进经济增长，但会扩大赤字。

It’s yet to be seen which policies will be pursued, in what sequence, what compromises will be made, and whether policies requiring legislation will pass Congress and survive court challenges. The possible outcomes cover a broad spectrum of impacts.

目前尚不清楚将推行哪些政策、按什么顺序、将做出哪些妥协，以及需要立法的政策是否能通过国会并经受住法庭挑战。可能的结果涵盖广泛的影响。

However, the fundamentals that have been driving gold prices higher are unlikely to change. Central banks, particularly in the BRICS nations, are expected to continue buying gold heavily. Geopolitical risks, such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine or China’s global aspirations, are escalating, not diminishing. The potential of AI will continue to expand, increasing industrial demand for gold as the required hardware is built.

然而，推动金价走高的基本面不太可能改变。央行，尤其是金砖国家央行，预计将继续大量购买黄金。中东和乌克兰战争或中国的全球野心等地缘政治风险正在升级，而不是减弱。人工智能的潜力将继续扩大，随着所需硬件的建造，工业对黄金的需求将不断增加。

Investor demand, driven by economic uncertainty, has been a major factor in the rising gold prices. Consider the uncertainty that will hit the world's largest economy in 2025 and how that might impact gold.

经济不确定性推动的投资者需求一直是金价上涨的主要因素。考虑一下 2025 年全球最大经济体将面临的不确定性以及这可能对黄金产生的影响。