川普當選對金價的影響：短期波動，長期不確定性

川普競選期間的多項政策可能對黃金產生重大影響，無論是正面還是負面。但這些政策實施的不確定性讓我們保持謹慎與警覺。

Trump’s election to a second term has brought short-term volatility to gold prices. Historically, elections have had some impact on gold prices, but that impact tends to dissipate over time as the markets assess the actions of the new administration.

川普連任為金價帶來短期波動。從歷史上看，選舉對金價產生過一些影響，但隨著市場評估新政府的行動，這種影響往往會隨著時間的推移而消失。

Trump's campaign featured several policies that could notably impact gold, both positively and negatively. Still, the uncertainty over which policies will be implemented leaves us in a state of caution and observation.

川普競選期間提出的多項政策可能對黃金產生顯著影響，無論是正面還是負面。儘管如此，哪些政策將實施的不確定性使我們處於謹慎和觀察的狀態。

For instance, he وعد hefty tariffs that could increase inflation and/or spark trade wars. He has وعد to deport illegal immigrants, which could shrink the labor force, slowing growth and pushing up prices. Trump has وعد to cut regulations, which could lead to higher profits and stock prices. He has وعد to cut government spending, which could slow the economy but shrink the budget deficit and slow the growth of the national debt. He has also وعد tax cuts, which could boost economic growth but widen the deficit.

例如，他主張徵收高額關稅，這可能會加劇通貨膨脹和/或引發貿易戰。他已驅逐非法移民，這可能會減少勞動力、減緩經濟成長並推高物價。川普已取消監管，這可能會帶來更高的利潤和股價。他已經削減了政府支出，這可能會減緩經濟成長，但會縮小預算赤字並減緩國家債務的成長。他還實施了減稅政策，可能會促進經濟成長，但會擴大赤字。

It’s yet to be seen which policies will be pursued, in what sequence, what compromises will be made, and whether policies requiring legislation will pass Congress and survive court challenges. The possible outcomes cover a broad spectrum of impacts.

目前尚不清楚將推行哪些政策、按什麼順序、將做出哪些妥協，以及需要立法的政策是否能通過國會並經受住法庭挑戰。可能的結果涵蓋廣泛的影響。

However, the fundamentals that have been driving gold prices higher are unlikely to change. Central banks, particularly in the BRICS nations, are expected to continue buying gold heavily. Geopolitical risks, such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine or China’s global aspirations, are escalating, not diminishing. The potential of AI will continue to expand, increasing industrial demand for gold as the required hardware is built.

然而，推動金價走高的基本面不太可能改變。央行，尤其是金磚國家央行，預計將繼續大量購買黃金。中東和烏克蘭戰爭或中國的全球野心等地緣政治風險正在升級，而不是減弱。人工智慧的潛力將繼續擴大，隨著所需硬體的建造，工業對黃金的需求將不斷增加。

Investor demand, driven by economic uncertainty, has been a major factor in the rising gold prices. Consider the uncertainty that will hit the world's largest economy in 2025 and how that might impact gold.

經濟不確定性推動的投資者需求一直是金價上漲的主要因素。考慮一下 2025 年全球最大經濟體將面臨的不確定性以及這可能對黃金產生的影響。