特朗普的“美国第一”平台有望重新配置全球贸易，以支持美国

这涉及鼓励企业在国内生产，将工作，行业和繁荣带回该国的部分地区

Trump’s ‘America First’ platform, which he built his successful campaign around, promised to reconfigure global trade in favour of the US. This involved encouraging businesses to manufacture domestically, bringing jobs, industry and prosperity back to parts of the country that were left behind by liberalised trade and outsourcing. The US had, or so the argument goes, become more and more reliant on competitively priced imports that were often manufactured by countries where labor and transportation is much cheaper.

特朗普的“美国第一”平台（他建立了成功的竞选活动）承诺将重新配置全球贸易，以支持美国。这涉及鼓励企业在国内生产，将工作，工业和繁荣带回全国的部分地区，这些部分被自由化的贸易和外包所抛弃。美国大约是这样的论点，越来越依赖于竞争价格的进口商品，这些进口通常是由劳动力和运输便宜得多的国家制造的。

This led to the emergence of Rust Belt states in which blue collar workers saw their living standards decline whilst the cities they lived in were hollowed out. The chosen tactic for this grand economic reconfiguration, it seems, is trade tariffs. By imposing tariffs on foreign goods, especially Chinese imports, Trump hopes to make it more expensive for consumers to buy products that are made abroad and for companies to outsource manufacturing.

这导致了锈带状态的出现，在这种状态下，蓝领工人看到他们的生活水平下降了，而他们所居住的城市被挖空了。这种宏伟的经济重新配置的策略似乎是贸易关税。通过对外国商品（尤其是中国进口商品）征收关税，特朗普希望使消费者购买在国外生产的产品以及公司外包制造产品更昂贵。

This, he claims, will breathe life back into the US industrial heartland and make the country more self-sufficient in times of crisis. It will also reduce the trade deficit, making the US less vulnerable to currency manipulation (which Trump accuses China of) and less dependent on consumption. Another critical aspect of Trump’s tariff policy is its effect on the U.S. dollar.

他声称，这将使生活重新回到美国工业心脏地带，并使该国在危机时期变得更加自给自足。这也将减少贸易赤字，使美国易受货币操纵的影响（特朗普指责中国），而对消费的依赖则减少了。特朗普关税政策的另一个关键方面是它对美元的影响。

By imposing tariffs on foreign imports, Trump hopes to weaken the dollar, since global demand for the dollar will decline as a result. As such, this would make American-made products more competitive in the global market which, in turn, will boost exports. This, Trump hopes, would provide long-term stability and prosperity for the American economy and reward blue collar voters who overwhelmingly backed him.

特朗普通过对外国进口商品征收关税，希望削弱美元，因为全球对美元的需求将因此下降。因此，这将使美国制造的产品在全球市场上更具竞争力，而全球市场将促进出口。特朗普希望，这将为美国经济提供长期的稳定和繁荣，并奖励以压倒性支持他的蓝领选民。

However, not only do tariffs have serious economic drawbacks that make their success uncertain, they also fail to address the root cause of the problem. Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods, and while they may benefit some domestic producers in the short term by making foreign goods more expensive, they also increase the cost of imports for U.S. consumers and businesses.

但是，关税不仅具有严重的经济缺陷，因此他们的成功不确定，而且还无法解决问题的根本原因。关税本质上是对进口商品的税收，尽管它们可能会在短期内使外国商品更昂贵，但它们也增加了美国消费者和企业的进口成本。

These higher costs, combined with potential retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, could hurt U.S. consumers, who would face higher prices on a range of goods, from electronics to clothing, which would hurt economic growth. In fact, China has already announced a retaliatory tariff of 34% and they are even considering not enforcing US intellectual property rights which could have a devastating impact on US businesses.

这些较高的成本，再加上贸易伙伴的潜在报复性关税，可能会伤害我们的消费者，他们将面临从电子产品到衣服的一系列商品价格上涨，这将损害经济增长。实际上，中国已经宣布了34％的报复性关税，他们甚至在考虑不执行美国知识产权，这可能会对美国的企业产生毁灭性的影响。

The European Union, as well as India and Turkey, are also preparing counter measures which will harm US exports. Whilst the USA does have a huge domestic market that the entire world wants to tap into, US businesses are also heavily reliant on consumer markets around the world.

欧盟以及印度和土耳其也正在准备损害美国出口的反措施。尽管美国确实拥有一个巨大的国内市场，但全世界都想利用这一市场，但美国的企业也非常依赖世界各地的消费市场。

Tariffs can have unpredictable consequences since there are so many moving parts and, as such, they are no quick fix for the economic woes of the US. Furthermore, it is not possible to simply revitalise domestic industry overnight after decades of outsourcing.

由于有很多活动部位，因此关税可能会产生不可预测的后果，因此，它们无法快速解决美国的经济困境。此外，经过数十年的外包，不可能简单地在一夜之间振兴国内行业。

High quality manufacturing requires significant investment in machinery, skilled workers and infrastructure, all of which have been in steep decline in the US whilst countries like China have been forging ahead. This gaping chasm cannot be narrowed in a few short years. The increased adoption of automation and AI also means domestic manufacturing is less likely to bring jobs and economic prosperity back to depressed parts of the US, since these technological advancements reduce dependence on physical labor.

高质量的制造业需要对机械，熟练的工人和基础设施进行大量投资，在美国，所有这些都处于急剧下降的幅度，而中国等国家一直在努力。短短几年内，这种鸿沟的鸿沟不能缩小。自动化和人工智能的采用增加也意味着国内制造业不太可能将工作和经济繁荣带回美国的沮丧部分，因为这些技术进步减少了对体力劳动的依赖。

Even if there were suddenly a lot more blue collar jobs in Rust Belt states, they would not have the desired effect Trump supporters are hoping for. The average salary for a blue collar worker in the US is around $53,000, which after taxes amounts to around $3300 a month. The average monthly rent is around $1750, the average monthly health insurance is around $700, the average monthly food bill is around $350 and, on average, utility bills amount to around $600.

即使在锈带州突然有更多的蓝领工作，他们也不会产生所需的影响。美国一名蓝领工人的平均薪水约为53,000美元，税后每月约3300美元。平均每月租金约为1750美元，平均每月健康保险约为700美元，平均每月食品账单约为350美元，平均公用事业账单约为600美元。

In other words, this average salary is barely enough to let a single worker live let alone raise a family or support a partner. The real challenge facing the U.S. economy can be traced back to a much deeper issue: the decoupling of the U.S. dollar from the gold standard in 1971.

换句话说，这种平均薪水几乎不足以让单个工人生活，更不用说养家或支持伴侣了。美国经济面临的真正挑战可以追溯到一个更深层次的问题：1971年，美元与黄金标准的脱钩。

Before this, the U.S. dollar was tied to gold, meaning the government could only issue as much currency as it had in reserves. This system imposed natural limits on money supply and kept inflation under control. When President Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, it allowed the U.S. government to print money freely without any backing, leading to the rise of fiat currency.

在此之前，美元与黄金有关，这意味着政府只能发行与储备金一样多的货币。该系统对货币供应施加了自然限制，并控制了通货膨胀。当尼克松总统终止美元的兑换性黄金时，它使美国政府无需任何支持就可以自由打印资金，从而导致法定货币的上升。

Fiat currencies are not backed by any physical commodity, which essentially renders them government issued IOUs. Whilst such a system offers flexibility in the short term, it leads to inflation over time. As more money is printed to fund government spending and cover national debts, the purchasing power of each dollar diminishes.

法定货币不受任何物理商品的支持，这实质上使他们政府发行。尽管这样的系统在短期内提供了灵活性，但随着时间的流逝，它会导致通货膨胀。随着越来越多的资金印刷以资助政府支出和支付国家债务，每美元的购买力减少。

In practice, this means everyday goods and services become

实际上，这意味着日常商品和服务成为