特朗普的“美國第一”平台有望重新配置全球貿易，以支持美國

這涉及鼓勵企業在國內生產，將工作，行業和繁榮帶回該國的部分地區

Trump’s ‘America First’ platform, which he built his successful campaign around, promised to reconfigure global trade in favour of the US. This involved encouraging businesses to manufacture domestically, bringing jobs, industry and prosperity back to parts of the country that were left behind by liberalised trade and outsourcing. The US had, or so the argument goes, become more and more reliant on competitively priced imports that were often manufactured by countries where labor and transportation is much cheaper.

特朗普的“美國第一”平台（他建立了成功的競選活動）承諾將重新配置全球貿易，以支持美國。這涉及鼓勵企業在國內生產，將工作，工業和繁榮帶回全國的部分地區，這些部分被自由化的貿易和外包所拋棄。美國大約是這樣的論點，越來越依賴於競爭價格的進口商品，這些進口通常是由勞動力和運輸便宜得多的國家製造的。

This led to the emergence of Rust Belt states in which blue collar workers saw their living standards decline whilst the cities they lived in were hollowed out. The chosen tactic for this grand economic reconfiguration, it seems, is trade tariffs. By imposing tariffs on foreign goods, especially Chinese imports, Trump hopes to make it more expensive for consumers to buy products that are made abroad and for companies to outsource manufacturing.

這導致了銹帶狀態的出現，在這種狀態下，藍領工人看到他們的生活水平下降了，而他們所居住的城市被挖空了。這種宏偉的經濟重新配置的策略似乎是貿易關稅。通過對外國商品（尤其是中國進口商品）徵收關稅，特朗普希望使消費者購買在國外生產的產品以及公司外包製造產品更昂貴。

This, he claims, will breathe life back into the US industrial heartland and make the country more self-sufficient in times of crisis. It will also reduce the trade deficit, making the US less vulnerable to currency manipulation (which Trump accuses China of) and less dependent on consumption. Another critical aspect of Trump’s tariff policy is its effect on the U.S. dollar.

他聲稱，這將使生活重新回到美國工業心臟地帶，並使該國在危機時期變得更加自給自足。這也將減少貿易赤字，使美國易受貨幣操縱的影響（特朗普指責中國），而對消費的依賴則減少了。特朗普關稅政策的另一個關鍵方面是它對美元的影響。

By imposing tariffs on foreign imports, Trump hopes to weaken the dollar, since global demand for the dollar will decline as a result. As such, this would make American-made products more competitive in the global market which, in turn, will boost exports. This, Trump hopes, would provide long-term stability and prosperity for the American economy and reward blue collar voters who overwhelmingly backed him.

特朗普通過對外國進口商品徵收關稅，希望削弱美元，因為全球對美元的需求將因此下降。因此，這將使美國製造的產品在全球市場上更具競爭力，而全球市場將促進出口。特朗普希望，這將為美國經濟提供長期的穩定和繁榮，並獎勵以壓倒性支持他的藍領選民。

However, not only do tariffs have serious economic drawbacks that make their success uncertain, they also fail to address the root cause of the problem. Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods, and while they may benefit some domestic producers in the short term by making foreign goods more expensive, they also increase the cost of imports for U.S. consumers and businesses.

但是，關稅不僅具有嚴重的經濟缺陷，因此他們的成功不確定，而且還無法解決問題的根本原因。關稅本質上是對進口商品的稅收，儘管它們可能會在短期內使外國商品更昂貴，但它們也增加了美國消費者和企業的進口成本。

These higher costs, combined with potential retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, could hurt U.S. consumers, who would face higher prices on a range of goods, from electronics to clothing, which would hurt economic growth. In fact, China has already announced a retaliatory tariff of 34% and they are even considering not enforcing US intellectual property rights which could have a devastating impact on US businesses.

這些較高的成本，再加上貿易夥伴的潛在報復性關稅，可能會傷害我們的消費者，他們將面臨從電子產品到衣服的一系列商品價格上漲，這將損害經濟增長。實際上，中國已經宣布了34％的報復性關稅，他們甚至在考慮不執行美國知識產權，這可能會對美國的企業產生毀滅性的影響。

The European Union, as well as India and Turkey, are also preparing counter measures which will harm US exports. Whilst the USA does have a huge domestic market that the entire world wants to tap into, US businesses are also heavily reliant on consumer markets around the world.

歐盟以及印度和土耳其也正在準備損害美國出口的反措施。儘管美國確實擁有一個巨大的國內市場，但全世界都想利用這一市場，但美國的企業也非常依賴世界各地的消費市場。

Tariffs can have unpredictable consequences since there are so many moving parts and, as such, they are no quick fix for the economic woes of the US. Furthermore, it is not possible to simply revitalise domestic industry overnight after decades of outsourcing.

由於有很多活動部位，因此關稅可能會產生不可預測的後果，因此，它們無法快速解決美國的經濟困境。此外，經過數十年的外包，不可能簡單地在一夜之間振興國內行業。

High quality manufacturing requires significant investment in machinery, skilled workers and infrastructure, all of which have been in steep decline in the US whilst countries like China have been forging ahead. This gaping chasm cannot be narrowed in a few short years. The increased adoption of automation and AI also means domestic manufacturing is less likely to bring jobs and economic prosperity back to depressed parts of the US, since these technological advancements reduce dependence on physical labor.

高質量的製造業需要對機械，熟練的工人和基礎設施進行大量投資，在美國，所有這些都處於急劇下降的幅度，而中國等國家一直在努力。短短幾年內，這種鴻溝的鴻溝不能縮小。自動化和人工智能的採用增加也意味著國內製造業不太可能將工作和經濟繁榮帶回美國的沮喪部分，因為這些技術進步減少了對體力勞動的依賴。

Even if there were suddenly a lot more blue collar jobs in Rust Belt states, they would not have the desired effect Trump supporters are hoping for. The average salary for a blue collar worker in the US is around $53,000, which after taxes amounts to around $3300 a month. The average monthly rent is around $1750, the average monthly health insurance is around $700, the average monthly food bill is around $350 and, on average, utility bills amount to around $600.

即使在銹帶州突然有更多的藍領工作，他們也不會產生所需的影響。美國一名藍領工人的平均薪水約為53,000美元，稅後每月約3300美元。平均每月租金約為1750美元，平均每月健康保險約為700美元，平均每月食品賬單約為350美元，平均公用事業賬單約為600美元。

In other words, this average salary is barely enough to let a single worker live let alone raise a family or support a partner. The real challenge facing the U.S. economy can be traced back to a much deeper issue: the decoupling of the U.S. dollar from the gold standard in 1971.

換句話說，這種平均薪水幾乎不足以讓單個工人生活，更不用說養家或支持伴侶了。美國經濟面臨的真正挑戰可以追溯到一個更深層次的問題：1971年，美元與黃金標準的脫鉤。

Before this, the U.S. dollar was tied to gold, meaning the government could only issue as much currency as it had in reserves. This system imposed natural limits on money supply and kept inflation under control. When President Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, it allowed the U.S. government to print money freely without any backing, leading to the rise of fiat currency.

在此之前，美元與黃金有關，這意味著政府只能發行與儲備金一樣多的貨幣。該系統對貨幣供應施加了自然限制，並控制了通貨膨脹。當尼克松總統終止美元的兌換性黃金時，它使美國政府無需任何支持就可以自由打印資金，從而導致法定貨幣的上升。

Fiat currencies are not backed by any physical commodity, which essentially renders them government issued IOUs. Whilst such a system offers flexibility in the short term, it leads to inflation over time. As more money is printed to fund government spending and cover national debts, the purchasing power of each dollar diminishes.

法定貨幣不受任何物理商品的支持，這實質上使他們政府發行。儘管這樣的系統在短期內提供了靈活性，但隨著時間的流逝，它會導致通貨膨脹。隨著越來越多的資金印刷以資助政府支出和支付國家債務，每美元的購買力減少。

In practice, this means everyday goods and services become

實際上，這意味著日常商品和服務成為