由于美国财政部收益率达到了6个月的低点，比特币（BTC）的价格可能已经准备好了

4月3日，由于投资者对全球贸易战的日益担忧和美元削弱的关注，美国政府债务的收益率下降到六个月来的最低水平。

Yields on long-term U.S. government debt fell on Tuesday to their lowest levels in six months as investors reacted to growing concerns over the global trade war and the weakening of the greenback.

由于投资者对对全球贸易战的日益担忧和绿色背削弱的关注，美国长期政府债务的收益率在六个月内下降到其六个月来的最低水平。

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes briefly touched 4.0%, signaling strong demand from buyers. This follows a steep decline from 4.4% reached last week. A weaker dollar and rising tariffs on U.S. imports were seen setting the stage for a period of heightened inflation and lower returns from fixed-income investments, potentially encouraging allocations to alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

美国10年期债券的收益率短暂触及了4.0％，这表明了买家的强劲需求。这是从上周达到4.4％的急剧下降。人们看到，对美国进口商品的关税较弱和关税的增加，这为通货膨胀率提高和固定收入投资的回报降低了，有可能鼓励分配给比特币（BTC）等替代资产。

Over time, traders are likely to reduce exposure to bonds, particularly if inflation rises. This, in turn, could drive up prices for cryptocurrencies as investors seek to maintain a balanced portfolio.

随着时间的流逝，交易者可能会减少对债券的接触，尤其是在通货膨胀率上升的情况下。反过来，随着投资者寻求保持平衡的投资组合，这可能会提高加密货币的价格。

Tariffs create ‘supply shock’ in the U.S. and impact inflation, fixed-income returns

关税在美国造成“供应冲击”并影响通货膨胀，固定收入回报

One could argue that the recently announced U.S. import tariffs negatively impact corporate profitability, forcing some companies to quickly reduce their debt levels and, in turn, reduce market liquidity. Ultimately, any measure that increases risk aversion tends to have a short-term negative effect on Bitcoin, particularly given its strong correlation with the S&P 500 index.

有人可能会争辩说，最近宣布的美国进口关税对公司的盈利能力产生了负面影响，迫使一些公司迅速降低债务水平，进而降低市场流动性。最终，任何增加风险厌恶的措施都会对比特币产生短期负面影响，尤其是考虑到其与标准普尔500指数的密切相关性。

However, Axel Merk, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Merk Investments, said that tariffs create a “supply shock,” meaning the reduced availability of goods and services due to rising prices causes an imbalance relative to demand. This effect is amplified if interest rates are declining, potentially paving the way for inflationary pressure.

但是，默克投资公司首席投资官兼投资组合经理阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，关税造成了“供应冲击”，这意味着由于价格上涨而导致商品和服务的可用性减少导致相对于需求的不平衡。如果利率下降，可能会为通货膨胀压力铺平道路，从而扩大这种影响。

“If you look at it from the perspective of macroeconomic theory, if you have a supply shock and if anything gets scarcer, the price goes up for that particular good or service. We saw that very clearly in the used car market during the pandemic. If you have a demand shock, then the quantity of the good or service will change. But if you have a supply shock, it’s really about the price going up,” Merk explained.

如果您从宏观经济理论的角度看待它，如果您有供应冲击，并且如果有任何稀缺，价格上涨，我们的特殊商品或服务的价格上涨了。我们在大流行期间在二手车市场中很清楚地看到了这一点。如果您的需求震惊，如果您的需求震惊，良好或服务的数量将会改变。但是，如果您有供应震惊。

“If you have a supply shock and at the same time, interest rates are going down, then you can get inflation. If you have a demand shock and interest rates are going up, then you get disinflation or even deflation. But in the current environment, with a supply shock and interest rates going down, you would expect to see inflation.”

“如果您有供应冲击，同时又有利率下降，那么您就会获得通货膨胀。如果您的需求震动和利率上升，那么您将被解散甚至放气。但是在当前的环境中，随着供应冲击和利率下降，您会期望看到通货膨胀。”

Even if one does not view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, the appeal of fixed-income investments diminishes significantly in such a scenario. Moreover, if just 5% of the world’s $140 trillion bond market seeks higher returns elsewhere, it could translate into $7 trillion in potential inflows into stocks, commodities, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.

即使人们不认为比特币是抵制通货膨胀的对冲，在这种情况下，固定收益投资的吸引力也会大大降低。此外，如果世界上只有5％的1400万亿美元债券市场在其他地方寻求更高的回报，那么它可以转化为7万亿美元的潜在流入，成为股票，商品，房地产，金牌和比特币。

Weaker US dollar amid gold all-time highs favors alternative assets

黄金历史最高高的美元有利于替代资产

Gold surged to a $21 trillion market capitalization as it made consecutive all-time highs, and it still has the potential for significant price upside. Higher prices allow previously unprofitable mining operations to resume and it encourages further investment in exploration, extraction, and refining. As production expands, the supply growth will naturally act as a limiting factor on gold’s long-term bull run.

由于连续达到历史最高高点，黄金飙升至21万亿美元的市值，而且它仍然有可能获得大量价格上涨空间。更高的价格使以前无利可图的采矿业务可以恢复，并鼓励对勘探，提取和炼油的进一步投资。随着产量的扩大，供应增长自然会成为黄金长期牛的限制因素。

Despite trends in U.S. interest rates, the greenback has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, as measured by the DXY Index. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 102, its lowest level in six months. A decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar, even in relative terms, could encourage other nations to explore alternative stores of value, including Bitcoin.

尽管美国利率的趋势趋势，但通过DXY指数来衡量的一篮子外币，绿色却削弱了一篮子外币。周二，该指数下降到102，这是六个月内的最低水平。即使是相对的，对美元的信心下降也可以鼓励其他国家探索包括比特币在内的替代价值存储。

This transition does not happen overnight, but the trade war could lead to a gradual shift away from the greenback, particularly among countries that feel pressured by its dominant role. While no one expects a return to the gold standard or Bitcoin to become a major component of national reserves, any movement away from the dollar strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term upside potential and reinforces its position as an alternative asset.

这种过渡不是在一夜之间发生的，但是贸易战可能会导致绿色逐渐转移，尤其是在因其主导作用而感到压力的国家中。尽管没有人期望重返黄金标准或比特币将成为国家储量的主要组成部分，但任何远离美元的运动都会增强比特币的长期上涨潜力，并增强其作为替代资产的地位。

To put things in perspective, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore collectively hold $2.63 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If these regions decide to retaliate, bond yields could reverse their trend, increasing the cost of new debt issuance for the U.S. government and further weakening the dollar. In such a scenario, investors would likely avoid adding exposure to stocks, ultimately favoring scarce alternative assets like Bitcoin.

将事情置于透视上，日本，中国，香港和新加坡在美国国库中持有2.63万亿美元。如果这些地区决定进行报复，债券收益率可能会扭转其趋势，增加为美国政府发行新债务的成本并进一步削弱美元。在这种情况下，投资者可能会避免增加对股票的影响，最终偏爱诸如比特币之类的稀缺替代资产。

Timing Bitcoin’s market bottom is nearly impossible, but the fact that the $82,000 support level held despite worsening global economic uncertainty is an encouraging sign of its resilience.

计时比特币的市场底层几乎是不可能的，但是尽管全球经济不确定性恶化，但仍有82,000美元的支持水平持有其弹性的令人鼓舞的迹象。