由於美國財政部收益率達到了6個月的低點，比特幣（BTC）的價格可能已經準備好了

4月3日，由於投資者對全球貿易戰的日益擔憂和美元削弱的關注，美國政府債務的收益率下降到六個月來的最低水平。

Yields on long-term U.S. government debt fell on Tuesday to their lowest levels in six months as investors reacted to growing concerns over the global trade war and the weakening of the greenback.

由於投資者對對全球貿易戰的日益擔憂和綠色背削弱的關注，美國長期政府債務的收益率在六個月內下降到其六個月來的最低水平。

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes briefly touched 4.0%, signaling strong demand from buyers. This follows a steep decline from 4.4% reached last week. A weaker dollar and rising tariffs on U.S. imports were seen setting the stage for a period of heightened inflation and lower returns from fixed-income investments, potentially encouraging allocations to alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

美國10年期債券的收益率短暫觸及了4.0％，這表明了買家的強勁需求。這是從上周達到4.4％的急劇下降。人們看到，對美國進口商品的關稅較弱和關稅的增加，這為通貨膨脹率提高和固定收入投資的回報降低了，有可能鼓勵分配給比特幣（BTC）等替代資產。

Over time, traders are likely to reduce exposure to bonds, particularly if inflation rises. This, in turn, could drive up prices for cryptocurrencies as investors seek to maintain a balanced portfolio.

隨著時間的流逝，交易者可能會減少對債券的接觸，尤其是在通貨膨脹率上升的情況下。反過來，隨著投資者尋求保持平衡的投資組合，這可能會提高加密貨幣的價格。

Tariffs create ‘supply shock’ in the U.S. and impact inflation, fixed-income returns

關稅在美國造成“供應衝擊”並影響通貨膨脹，固定收入回報

One could argue that the recently announced U.S. import tariffs negatively impact corporate profitability, forcing some companies to quickly reduce their debt levels and, in turn, reduce market liquidity. Ultimately, any measure that increases risk aversion tends to have a short-term negative effect on Bitcoin, particularly given its strong correlation with the S&P 500 index.

有人可能會爭辯說，最近宣布的美國進口關稅對公司的盈利能力產生了負面影響，迫使一些公司迅速降低債務水平，進而降低市場流動性。最終，任何增加風險厭惡的措施都會對比特幣產生短期負面影響，尤其是考慮到其與標準普爾500指數的密切相關性。

However, Axel Merk, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Merk Investments, said that tariffs create a “supply shock,” meaning the reduced availability of goods and services due to rising prices causes an imbalance relative to demand. This effect is amplified if interest rates are declining, potentially paving the way for inflationary pressure.

但是，默克投資公司首席投資官兼投資組合經理阿克塞爾·默克（Axel Merk）表示，關稅造成了“供應衝擊”，這意味著由於價格上漲而導致商品和服務的可用性減少導致相對於需求的不平衡。如果利率下降，可能會為通貨膨脹壓力鋪平道路，從而擴大這種影響。

“If you look at it from the perspective of macroeconomic theory, if you have a supply shock and if anything gets scarcer, the price goes up for that particular good or service. We saw that very clearly in the used car market during the pandemic. If you have a demand shock, then the quantity of the good or service will change. But if you have a supply shock, it’s really about the price going up,” Merk explained.

如果您從宏觀經濟理論的角度看待它，如果您有供應衝擊，並且如果有任何稀缺，價格上漲，我們的特殊商品或服務的價格上漲了。我們在大流行期間在二手車市場中很清楚地看到了這一點。如果您的需求震驚，如果您的需求震驚，良好或服務的數量將會改變。但是，如果您有供應震驚。

“If you have a supply shock and at the same time, interest rates are going down, then you can get inflation. If you have a demand shock and interest rates are going up, then you get disinflation or even deflation. But in the current environment, with a supply shock and interest rates going down, you would expect to see inflation.”

“如果您有供應衝擊，同時又有利率下降，那麼您就會獲得通貨膨脹。如果您的需求震動和利率上升，那麼您將被解散甚至放氣。但是在當前的環境中，隨著供應衝擊和利率下降，您會期望看到通貨膨脹。”

Even if one does not view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, the appeal of fixed-income investments diminishes significantly in such a scenario. Moreover, if just 5% of the world’s $140 trillion bond market seeks higher returns elsewhere, it could translate into $7 trillion in potential inflows into stocks, commodities, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.

即使人們不認為比特幣是抵制通貨膨脹的對沖，在這種情況下，固定收益投資的吸引力也會大大降低。此外，如果世界上只有5％的1400萬億美元債券市場在其他地方尋求更高的回報，那麼它可以轉化為7萬億美元的潛在流入，成為股票，商品，房地產，金牌和比特幣。

Weaker US dollar amid gold all-time highs favors alternative assets

黃金歷史最高高的美元有利於替代資產

Gold surged to a $21 trillion market capitalization as it made consecutive all-time highs, and it still has the potential for significant price upside. Higher prices allow previously unprofitable mining operations to resume and it encourages further investment in exploration, extraction, and refining. As production expands, the supply growth will naturally act as a limiting factor on gold’s long-term bull run.

由於連續達到歷史最高高點，黃金飆升至21萬億美元的市值，而且它仍然有可能獲得大量價格上漲空間。更高的價格使以前無利可圖的採礦業務可以恢復，並鼓勵對勘探，提取和煉油的進一步投資。隨著產量的擴大，供應增長自然會成為黃金長期牛的限制因素。

Despite trends in U.S. interest rates, the greenback has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, as measured by the DXY Index. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 102, its lowest level in six months. A decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar, even in relative terms, could encourage other nations to explore alternative stores of value, including Bitcoin.

儘管美國利率的趨勢趨勢，但通過DXY指數來衡量的一籃子外幣，綠色卻削弱了一籃子外幣。週二，該指數下降到102，這是六個月內的最低水平。即使是相對的，對美元的信心下降也可以鼓勵其他國家探索包括比特幣在內的替代價值存儲。

This transition does not happen overnight, but the trade war could lead to a gradual shift away from the greenback, particularly among countries that feel pressured by its dominant role. While no one expects a return to the gold standard or Bitcoin to become a major component of national reserves, any movement away from the dollar strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term upside potential and reinforces its position as an alternative asset.

這種過渡不是在一夜之間發生的，但是貿易戰可能會導致綠色逐漸轉移，尤其是在因其主導作用而感到壓力的國家中。儘管沒有人期望重返黃金標准或比特幣將成為國家儲量的主要組成部分，但任何遠離美元的運動都會增強比特幣的長期上漲潛力，並增強其作為替代資產的地位。

To put things in perspective, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore collectively hold $2.63 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If these regions decide to retaliate, bond yields could reverse their trend, increasing the cost of new debt issuance for the U.S. government and further weakening the dollar. In such a scenario, investors would likely avoid adding exposure to stocks, ultimately favoring scarce alternative assets like Bitcoin.

將事情置於透視上，日本，中國，香港和新加坡在美國國庫中持有2.63萬億美元。如果這些地區決定進行報復，債券收益率可能會扭轉其趨勢，增加為美國政府發行新債務的成本並進一步削弱美元。在這種情況下，投資者可能會避免增加對股票的影響，最終偏愛諸如比特幣之類的稀缺替代資產。

Timing Bitcoin’s market bottom is nearly impossible, but the fact that the $82,000 support level held despite worsening global economic uncertainty is an encouraging sign of its resilience.

計時比特幣的市場底層幾乎是不可能的，但是儘管全球經濟不確定性惡化，但仍有82,000美元的支持水平持有其彈性的令人鼓舞的跡象。