加密貨幣市場處於邊緣狀態，因為美國現在有50％可能進入經濟衰退

由於特朗普總統的“解放日”關稅計劃，美國現在有可能進入衰退50％，因此加密貨幣市場處於邊緣狀態。

The cryptocurrency market is on edge as the United States is now 50% likely to enter recession due to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan. Market turbulence rose swiftly after increased recession probability indicators appeared, making investors speculate about Bitcoin’s forthcoming developments. Investors must proceed cautiously when facing economic market fluctuations since they must weigh both the dangers and advantages of cryptocurrency investment decisions.

由於特朗普總統的“解放日”關稅計劃，美國現在有可能進入衰退50％，因此加密貨幣市場處於邊緣狀態。在出現衰退概率指標增加後，市場動盪迅速上升，使投資者推測比特幣即將發生的發展。在面對經濟市場波動時，投資者必須謹慎行事，因為他們必須權衡加密貨幣投資決策的危險和優勢。

The Recession Risks: How Tariffs are Shaping the Market

經濟衰退風險：關稅如何塑造市場

President Trump launched higher tariffs on April 2, 2025, through his announcement. The new tariffs applied a 34% tax on Chinese imports and a 20% tax on European Union imports, leading to immediate destabilization in the global economy. Economic trackers showed increased probabilities of recession after this event, while Kalshi prediction market numbers soared to 57% from 45%, with Polymarket reporting identical levels at 52%. The new tariffs threaten economic decline through worsened trade links, higher prices, and increased financial strain, generating recessionary uncertainties.

特朗普總統於2025年4月2日通過宣布提出了更高的關稅。新的關稅對中國進口稅徵收了34％的稅，對歐盟進口稅徵收20％的稅，從而導致全球經濟立即破壞穩定。經濟追踪者顯示此事件發生後衰退的概率增加，而Kalshi的預測市場數量從45％飆升至57％，Polymarket報告的水平相同，為52％。新的關稅通過惡化的貿易聯繫，更高的價格和增加的財務壓力威脅到經濟下降，從而造成了衰退的不確定性。

Image 1- US Recession Risks, published by Kalsi Predictions on April 4, 2025

圖片1-美國衰退風險，由Kalsi Previveings於2025年4月4日發布

Financial institutions and market analysts adjusted their forecasts of recession. According to Goldman Sachs, the prediction of economic recession moved upward from 25% to 35%. The international trade tariffs will drive up costs for customers and enterprises, possibly slowing economic performance. Investors remain anxious about economic strain because inflation is a current concern.

金融機構和市場分析師調整了他們對經濟衰退的預測。據高盛（Goldman Sachs）稱，對經濟衰退的預測從25％上升到35％。國際貿易關稅將提高客戶和企業的成本，這可能會減慢經濟績效。投資者仍然對經濟壓力感到焦慮，因為通貨膨脹是當前的關注。

Bitcoin Position in a Potential Recession: Will It Thrive or Struggle?

比特幣在潛在衰退中的地位：它會繁榮還是掙扎？

These economic developments cause Bitcoin to experience volatility despite its reputation as a protection against inflation. Crypto trader Bob Loukas is among the analysts who predict Bitcoin will face difficulties because of current macroeconomic conditions. According to Louis Loukas, “buying the dip” as a Bitcoin investment strategy will likely end as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of increasing price swings.

這些經濟發展使比特幣經歷了波動性，儘管它聲譽為防止通貨膨脹。加密交易員鮑勃·盧卡斯（Bob Loukas）是預測比特幣由於當前宏觀經濟條件而面臨困難的分析師之一。根據路易斯·盧卡斯（Louis Loukas）的說法，“購買蘸醬”作為比特幣投資策略可能會結束，因為加密貨幣市場表現出增加價格波動的跡象。

Image 2- US Recessions in 2025, published by Polymarket on April 4, 2025

圖片2- 2025年的美國衰退，由Polymarket於2025年4月4日出版

The market displays two conflicting viewpoints about Bitcoin. Some experts view it as a “digital gold” asset that could function as an inflation-resistant trading instrument during economic confusion. According to expectations, a continued reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates could benefit Bitcoin through greater market liquidity, enhancing asset values. The current financial instability seems likely to push investors toward safer assets, allowing Bitcoin to rebuild its status as a store of value.

市場顯示了關於比特幣的兩個相互矛盾的觀點。一些專家將其視為一種“數字黃金”資產，在經濟混亂期間可以用作抗通脹的交易工具。根據預期，美聯儲的利率繼續降低可以通過更大的市場流動性來使比特幣受益，從而提高資產價值。當前的金融不穩定似乎可能會將投資者推向更安全的資產，從而使比特幣重建其作為價值存儲的地位。

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market?

比特幣和加密市場的下一步是什麼？

Like other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin remains under constant pressure because of increasing US recession possibilities. The future direction of Bitcoin depends most heavily on how the Federal Reserve handles inflation control and an upcoming recession risk. Bitcoin would benefit from Fed rate cuts that occur in response to trade tariffs because faster monetary expansion and lower interest rates will increase liquidity in the market. The Bitcoin price may decline additional amounts when investors change their sentiment because economic conditions deteriorate as the recession develops.

像其他加密貨幣一樣，由於美國經濟衰退的可能性增加，比特幣仍處於持續的壓力。比特幣的未來方向在很大程度上取決於美聯儲如何處理通貨膨脹控制和即將到來的衰退風險。比特幣將受益於響應貿易關稅而發生的美聯儲降低利率，因為更快的貨幣擴張和較低的利率將增加市場流動性。當投資者改變情緒時，比特幣價格可能會下降更多的款項，因為隨著經濟衰退的發展，經濟狀況惡化。

According to macro analyst Alex Krüger the essential factors behind Bitcoin’s future success will be the relationship between monetary policy decisions and economic recession threats. Rising recession indicators warn investors about pessimistic market conditions resulting from Federal Reserve rate reductions. The crypto market remains volatile, leading to more price swings since traders must watch new data closely.

宏觀分析師亞歷克斯·克魯格（AlexKrüger）認為，比特幣未來成功背後的基本因素將是貨幣政策決策與經濟衰退威脅之間的關係。不斷上升的衰退指標警告投資者有關降低美聯儲的悲觀市場狀況。加密市場仍然波動，導致更大的價格波動，因為交易者必須密切關注新數據。

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Future in an Uncertain Economic Environment

結論：比特幣在不確定的經濟環境中的未來

Bitcoin’s market position remains uncertain as it confronts higher risks of economic recession and rising inflation. The quick rise in tariffs has created extra uncertainty for Bitcoin despite its volatile market state, raising doubts about its market success in the coming days. Users continue to debate whether Bitcoin can serve as a risk-insuring asset because economic challenges might overwhelm its operations.

比特幣的市場地位仍然不確定，因為它面臨著更高的經濟衰退風險和通貨膨脹率上升的風險。儘管市場狀況易變，但關稅的迅速上升還是對比特幣造成了額外的不確定性，這使人們對未來幾天的市場成功產生了疑問。用戶繼續辯論比特幣是否可以用作風險資產，因為經濟挑戰可能會淹沒其運營。

Investors must stay vigilant about market uncertainties when deciding between avoiding risks and pursuing possible benefits. The cryptocurrency market remains vigilant because its future hinges on economic policy decisions and worldwide market conditions. However, these factors still depend on Federal Reserve actions and government policies.

在決定避免風險和追求可能的福利之間，投資者必須對市場不確定性保持警惕。加密貨幣市場仍然保持警惕，因為其未來取決於經濟政策決策和全球市場狀況。但是，這些因素仍然取決於美聯儲的行動和政府政策。