加密货币市场处于边缘状态，因为美国现在有50％可能进入经济衰退

由于特朗普总统的“解放日”关税计划，美国现在有可能进入衰退50％，因此加密货币市场处于边缘状态。

The cryptocurrency market is on edge as the United States is now 50% likely to enter recession due to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan. Market turbulence rose swiftly after increased recession probability indicators appeared, making investors speculate about Bitcoin’s forthcoming developments. Investors must proceed cautiously when facing economic market fluctuations since they must weigh both the dangers and advantages of cryptocurrency investment decisions.

由于特朗普总统的“解放日”关税计划，美国现在有可能进入衰退50％，因此加密货币市场处于边缘状态。在出现衰退概率指标增加后，市场动荡迅速上升，使投资者推测比特币即将发生的发展。在面对经济市场波动时，投资者必须谨慎行事，因为他们必须权衡加密货币投资决策的危险和优势。

The Recession Risks: How Tariffs are Shaping the Market

经济衰退风险：关税如何塑造市场

President Trump launched higher tariffs on April 2, 2025, through his announcement. The new tariffs applied a 34% tax on Chinese imports and a 20% tax on European Union imports, leading to immediate destabilization in the global economy. Economic trackers showed increased probabilities of recession after this event, while Kalshi prediction market numbers soared to 57% from 45%, with Polymarket reporting identical levels at 52%. The new tariffs threaten economic decline through worsened trade links, higher prices, and increased financial strain, generating recessionary uncertainties.

特朗普总统于2025年4月2日通过宣布提出了更高的关税。新的关税对中国进口税征收了34％的税，对欧盟进口税征收20％的税，从而导致全球经济立即破坏稳定。经济追踪者显示此事件发生后衰退的概率增加，而Kalshi的预测市场数量从45％飙升至57％，Polymarket报告的水平相同，为52％。新的关税通过恶化的贸易联系，更高的价格和增加的财务压力威胁到经济下降，从而造成了衰退的不确定性。

Image 1- US Recession Risks, published by Kalsi Predictions on April 4, 2025

图片1-美国衰退风险，由Kalsi Previveings于2025年4月4日发布

Financial institutions and market analysts adjusted their forecasts of recession. According to Goldman Sachs, the prediction of economic recession moved upward from 25% to 35%. The international trade tariffs will drive up costs for customers and enterprises, possibly slowing economic performance. Investors remain anxious about economic strain because inflation is a current concern.

金融机构和市场分析师调整了他们对经济衰退的预测。据高盛（Goldman Sachs）称，对经济衰退的预测从25％上升到35％。国际贸易关税将提高客户和企业的成本，这可能会减慢经济绩效。投资者仍然对经济压力感到焦虑，因为通货膨胀是当前的关注。

Bitcoin Position in a Potential Recession: Will It Thrive or Struggle?

比特币在潜在衰退中的地位：它会繁荣还是挣扎？

These economic developments cause Bitcoin to experience volatility despite its reputation as a protection against inflation. Crypto trader Bob Loukas is among the analysts who predict Bitcoin will face difficulties because of current macroeconomic conditions. According to Louis Loukas, “buying the dip” as a Bitcoin investment strategy will likely end as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of increasing price swings.

这些经济发展使比特币经历了波动性，尽管它声誉为防止通货膨胀。加密交易员鲍勃·卢卡斯（Bob Loukas）是预测比特币由于当前宏观经济条件而面临困难的分析师之一。根据路易斯·卢卡斯（Louis Loukas）的说法，“购买蘸酱”作为比特币投资策略可能会结束，因为加密货币市场表现出增加价格波动的迹象。

Image 2- US Recessions in 2025, published by Polymarket on April 4, 2025

图片2- 2025年的美国衰退，由Polymarket于2025年4月4日出版

The market displays two conflicting viewpoints about Bitcoin. Some experts view it as a “digital gold” asset that could function as an inflation-resistant trading instrument during economic confusion. According to expectations, a continued reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates could benefit Bitcoin through greater market liquidity, enhancing asset values. The current financial instability seems likely to push investors toward safer assets, allowing Bitcoin to rebuild its status as a store of value.

市场显示了关于比特币的两个相互矛盾的观点。一些专家将其视为一种“数字黄金”资产，在经济混乱期间可以用作抗通胀的交易工具。根据预期，美联储的利率继续降低可以通过更大的市场流动性来使比特币受益，从而提高资产价值。当前的金融不稳定似乎可能会将投资者推向更安全的资产，从而使比特币重建其作为价值存储的地位。

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market?

比特币和加密市场的下一步是什么？

Like other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin remains under constant pressure because of increasing US recession possibilities. The future direction of Bitcoin depends most heavily on how the Federal Reserve handles inflation control and an upcoming recession risk. Bitcoin would benefit from Fed rate cuts that occur in response to trade tariffs because faster monetary expansion and lower interest rates will increase liquidity in the market. The Bitcoin price may decline additional amounts when investors change their sentiment because economic conditions deteriorate as the recession develops.

像其他加密货币一样，由于美国经济衰退的可能性增加，比特币仍处于持续的压力。比特币的未来方向在很大程度上取决于美联储如何处理通货膨胀控制和即将到来的衰退风险。比特币将受益于响应贸易关税而发生的美联储降低利率，因为更快的货币扩张和较低的利率将增加市场流动性。当投资者改变情绪时，比特币价格可能会下降更多的款项，因为随着经济衰退的发展，经济状况恶化。

According to macro analyst Alex Krüger the essential factors behind Bitcoin’s future success will be the relationship between monetary policy decisions and economic recession threats. Rising recession indicators warn investors about pessimistic market conditions resulting from Federal Reserve rate reductions. The crypto market remains volatile, leading to more price swings since traders must watch new data closely.

宏观分析师亚历克斯·克鲁格（AlexKrüger）认为，比特币未来成功背后的基本因素将是货币政策决策与经济衰退威胁之间的关系。不断上升的衰退指标警告投资者有关降低美联储的悲观市场状况。加密市场仍然波动，导致更大的价格波动，因为交易者必须密切关注新数据。

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Future in an Uncertain Economic Environment

结论：比特币在不确定的经济环境中的未来

Bitcoin’s market position remains uncertain as it confronts higher risks of economic recession and rising inflation. The quick rise in tariffs has created extra uncertainty for Bitcoin despite its volatile market state, raising doubts about its market success in the coming days. Users continue to debate whether Bitcoin can serve as a risk-insuring asset because economic challenges might overwhelm its operations.

比特币的市场地位仍然不确定，因为它面临着更高的经济衰退风险和通货膨胀率上升的风险。尽管市场状况易变，但关税的迅速上升还是对比特币造成了额外的不确定性，这使人们对未来几天的市场成功产生了疑问。用户继续辩论比特币是否可以用作风险资产，因为经济挑战可能会淹没其运营。

Investors must stay vigilant about market uncertainties when deciding between avoiding risks and pursuing possible benefits. The cryptocurrency market remains vigilant because its future hinges on economic policy decisions and worldwide market conditions. However, these factors still depend on Federal Reserve actions and government policies.

在决定避免风险和追求可能的福利之间，投资者必须对市场不确定性保持警惕。加密货币市场仍然保持警惕，因为其未来取决于经济政策决策和全球市场状况。但是，这些因素仍然取决于美联储的行动和政府政策。