美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，特朗普政府旨在通过降低10年财政部票据的收益率来降低经济中的借贷成本

所谓的无风险利率的10年收益率影响了经济中的大多数长期贷款，包括抵押和商业贷款。

The U.S. Treasury Secretary aims to reduce borrowing costs in the economy.

美国财政部长旨在降低经济中的借贷成本。

How? By lowering the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.

如何？通过降低10年财政部票据的收益率。

“He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury,” Bessent said when asked about plans to lower interest rates. “He is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates,” Bessent added.

当被问及降低利率的计划时，贝森特说：“他和我专注于10年的财政部。” Bessent补充说：“他并不要求美联储降低利率。​​”

The 10-year yield, the so-called risk-free rate, influences most long-term loans in the economy, including mortgages and business loans. Thus, a declining 10-year yield encourages borrowing and investment, increasing risk-taking in the economy and financial markets.

所谓的无风险利率的10年收益率影响了经济中的大多数长期贷款，包括抵押和商业贷款。因此，10年的收益率下降会鼓励借贷和投资，从而增加了经济和金融市场的冒险。

Thus, softening of the 10-year yield is typically seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). Trump plans to lower the yield by controlling inflation, which will likely bode well for BTC and reducing the budget deficit, which may be a headwind for risk assets.

因此，通常将10年收益率的软化视为风险资产的看涨，包括比特币（BTC）。特朗普计划通过控制通货膨胀来降低收益率，这对于BTC来说可能会很好，并减少了预算赤字，这可能会带来风险资产的逆风。

“The energy component for them is one of the surest indicators for long-term inflation expectations,” Bessent said, adding that boosting the energy supply will help lower inflation.

Bessent说：“他们的能源成分是长期通货膨胀预期的最可靠指标之一。”他补充说，提高能源供应将有助于降低通货膨胀。

Other things being equal, lower inflation would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting rates, which are still very much in restrictive territory. That could add to the bullish momentum in risk assets. Since September, the Fed has lowered the benchmark borrowing cost by 100 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% range.

其他情况相同，较低的通货膨胀将使美联储（美联储）继续削减速度，在限制性领土上仍然非常重要。这可能会增加风险资产的看涨势头。自9月以来，美联储将基准借贷成本降低了100个基点，至4.25％-4.5％。

Meanwhile, Bessent’s strategy to inject downward pressure on the 10-year yield also involves fixing the huge budget deficit through reduced fiscal spending. Deficit reduction would mean less bond supply, higher bond prices, and lower yields.

同时，Bessent对10年收益率的下降压力的策略也涉及通过减少财政支出来解决巨大的预算赤字。赤字减少将意味着减少债券供应，更高的债券价格和较低的收益率。

That said, the Biden administration’s supposed out-of-control fiscal spending compensated for the elevated Fed rates and greased financial markets. So, any cut in spending could destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

话虽如此，拜登政府认为的失控的财政支出弥补了美联储利率和润滑脂的金融市场。因此，任何削减支出都可能破坏包括加密货币在内的风险资产的稳定。

“Of course, getting the 10-year yield on a downward path implies moves to improve the U.S. fiscal position, as well as inflation. So far, we’ve had his partner, Musk, cutting Federal government programs like USAID, Federal employees and such. Which really doesn’t scratch the surface,” ForexLive’s Chief Asia-Pacific Currency Analyst Eamonn Sheridan noted.

“当然，在向下路径上获得10年的收益率意味着改善美国财政状况以及通货膨胀的行动。到目前为止，我们已经有他的合伙人马斯克（Musk）削减了联邦政府计划，例如美国国际开发署，联邦雇员等。这确实没有刮擦表面。

“Most of the U.S. spending is on healthcare, Social Security, and defense. Will Trump inflict the pain that his focus seems to imply? There is a barely a politician out there that would,” Sheridan added.

“美国大多数人的支出都是在医疗保健，社会保障和辩护方面。特朗普会造成重点暗示的痛苦吗？ Sheridan补充说，几乎没有一个政治家。

Enjoy the move lower while it lasts

持续下去时享受较低的举动

The 10-year yield has dropped by 38 basis points to 4.42% as markets price in lower energy prices and non-inflationary growth, according to Bessent.

据Bessent称，随着市场价格较低的能源价格和非通向增长，10年的收益率下降了38个基点，至4.42％。

Analysts at ING, however, do not see a sustained drop.

但是，ING的分析师没有看到持续的下降。

“We also assert there is not huge room to the downside for the 10 year yield. An effective floor is in place at just under 4%, as determinable from the funds rate strip. That floor can, of course, shift lower, but would need a better reason than an approaching 10 year rate. And the 10 year Treasury yield sits some 50bp over this. So enjoy the move lower while it lasts,” ING said in a note to clients.

“我们还断言，10年收益率的不利之处很大。有效的地板在不到4％以下，可以从资金利率地带确定。当然，该楼层可以降低，但需要比接近10年的价格更好的理由。而10年的财政收益率在这方面约为50bp。因此，在持续的过程中享受较低的举动。

ING added that it’s hard to see a big driver for a lower 10-year yield, apart from a potential huge success of The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, created to cut wasteful fiscal expenditure and slash federal regulations.

Ing补充说，除了政府效率部的潜在巨大成功之外，很难看到一个较低的10年收益率的驱动因素，即削减浪费的财政支出和削减联邦法规的巨大成功。