美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，特朗普政府旨在通過降低10年財政部票據的收益率來降低經濟中的借貸成本

所謂的無風險利率的10年收益率影響了經濟中的大多數長期貸款，包括抵押和商業貸款。

The U.S. Treasury Secretary aims to reduce borrowing costs in the economy.

美國財政部長旨在降低經濟中的借貸成本。

How? By lowering the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.

如何？通過降低10年財政部票據的收益率。

“He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury,” Bessent said when asked about plans to lower interest rates. “He is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates,” Bessent added.

當被問及降低利率的計劃時，貝森特說：“他和我專注於10年的財政部。” Bessent補充說：“他並不要求美聯儲降低利率。​​”

The 10-year yield, the so-called risk-free rate, influences most long-term loans in the economy, including mortgages and business loans. Thus, a declining 10-year yield encourages borrowing and investment, increasing risk-taking in the economy and financial markets.

所謂的無風險利率的10年收益率影響了經濟中的大多數長期貸款，包括抵押和商業貸款。因此，10年的收益率下降會鼓勵借貸和投資，從而增加了經濟和金融市場的冒險。

Thus, softening of the 10-year yield is typically seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). Trump plans to lower the yield by controlling inflation, which will likely bode well for BTC and reducing the budget deficit, which may be a headwind for risk assets.

因此，通常將10年收益率的軟化視為風險資產的看漲，包括比特幣（BTC）。特朗普計劃通過控制通貨膨脹來降低收益率，這對於BTC來說可能會很好，並減少了預算赤字，這可能會帶來風險資產的逆風。

“The energy component for them is one of the surest indicators for long-term inflation expectations,” Bessent said, adding that boosting the energy supply will help lower inflation.

Bessent說：“他們的能源成分是長期通貨膨脹預期的最可靠指標之一。”他補充說，提高能源供應將有助於降低通貨膨脹。

Other things being equal, lower inflation would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting rates, which are still very much in restrictive territory. That could add to the bullish momentum in risk assets. Since September, the Fed has lowered the benchmark borrowing cost by 100 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% range.

其他情況相同，較低的通貨膨脹將使美聯儲（美聯儲）繼續削減速度，在限制性領土上仍然非常重要。這可能會增加風險資產的看漲勢頭。自9月以來，美聯儲將基準借貸成本降低了100個基點，至4.25％-4.5％。

Meanwhile, Bessent’s strategy to inject downward pressure on the 10-year yield also involves fixing the huge budget deficit through reduced fiscal spending. Deficit reduction would mean less bond supply, higher bond prices, and lower yields.

同時，Bessent對10年收益率的下降壓力的策略也涉及通過減少財政支出來解決巨大的預算赤字。赤字減少將意味著減少債券供應，更高的債券價格和較低的收益率。

That said, the Biden administration’s supposed out-of-control fiscal spending compensated for the elevated Fed rates and greased financial markets. So, any cut in spending could destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

話雖如此，拜登政府認為的失控的財政支出彌補了美聯儲利率和潤滑脂的金融市場。因此，任何削減支出都可能破壞包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產的穩定。

“Of course, getting the 10-year yield on a downward path implies moves to improve the U.S. fiscal position, as well as inflation. So far, we’ve had his partner, Musk, cutting Federal government programs like USAID, Federal employees and such. Which really doesn’t scratch the surface,” ForexLive’s Chief Asia-Pacific Currency Analyst Eamonn Sheridan noted.

“當然，在向下路徑上獲得10年的收益率意味著改善美國財政狀況以及通貨膨脹的行動。到目前為止，我們已經有他的合夥人馬斯克（Musk）削減了聯邦政府計劃，例如美國國際開發署，聯邦僱員等。這確實沒有刮擦表面。

“Most of the U.S. spending is on healthcare, Social Security, and defense. Will Trump inflict the pain that his focus seems to imply? There is a barely a politician out there that would,” Sheridan added.

“美國大多數人的支出都是在醫療保健，社會保障和辯護方面。特朗普會造成重點暗示的痛苦嗎？ Sheridan補充說，幾乎沒有一個政治家。

Enjoy the move lower while it lasts

持續下去時享受較低的舉動

The 10-year yield has dropped by 38 basis points to 4.42% as markets price in lower energy prices and non-inflationary growth, according to Bessent.

據Bessent稱，隨著市場價格較低的能源價格和非通向增長，10年的收益率下降了38個基點，至4.42％。

Analysts at ING, however, do not see a sustained drop.

但是，ING的分析師沒有看到持續的下降。

“We also assert there is not huge room to the downside for the 10 year yield. An effective floor is in place at just under 4%, as determinable from the funds rate strip. That floor can, of course, shift lower, but would need a better reason than an approaching 10 year rate. And the 10 year Treasury yield sits some 50bp over this. So enjoy the move lower while it lasts,” ING said in a note to clients.

“我們還斷言，10年收益率的不利之處很大。有效的地板在不到4％以下，可以從資金利率地帶確定。當然，該樓層可以降低，但需要比接近10年的價格更好的理由。而10年的財政收益率在這方面約為50bp。因此，在持續的過程中享受較低的舉動。

ING added that it’s hard to see a big driver for a lower 10-year yield, apart from a potential huge success of The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, created to cut wasteful fiscal expenditure and slash federal regulations.

Ing補充說，除了政府效率部的潛在巨大成功之外，很難看到一個較低的10年收益率的驅動因素，即削減浪費的財政支出和削減聯邦法規的巨大成功。