丰田：现有的困境

长期以来，汽车行业被视为“无聊”的工业周期性行业。然而，在过去十年中，随着电动汽车的出现

Despite the recent surge in electric vehicle (EV) popularity, largely driven by the entry of new automakers like Tesla and Rivian, the top five automakers in 2023 were still established manufacturers, outselling the newcomers by a significant margin.

尽管最近电动汽车 (EV) 的受欢迎程度大幅上升，这主要是由特斯拉和 Rivian 等新汽车制造商的进入推动的，但 2023 年排名前五的汽车制造商仍然是老牌制造商，销量大幅超过新晋汽车制造商。

For instance, Toyota sold 10,565,814 vehicles in 2023, while Tesla sold 1,808,581 EVs and BYD sold 3,024,417 vehicles. This indicates that the established players are facing pressure to adapt but are far from being out of the game.

例如，丰田在 2023 年销售了 10,565,814 辆汽车，而特斯拉销售了 1,808,581 辆电动汽车，比亚迪销售了 3,024,417 辆汽车。这表明老牌玩家面临着适应压力，但远未被淘汰。

One company that has been at the forefront of discussions related to new technologies is Toyota. The Toyota group includes the Toyota and Lexus brands, as well as Daihatsu (cars), Hino Motors (trucks and buses), and Toyota Industry (mainly forklifts, logistic tools, and looms).

丰田是一直处于新技术相关讨论前沿的公司之一。丰田集团包括丰田和雷克萨斯品牌，以及大发（汽车）、日野汽车（卡车和公共汽车）和丰田工业（主要是叉车、物流工具和织机）。

With a volume of cars sold that is more than 5x that of Tesla, Toyota has a market capitalization that is only 1/3rd of the EV leader. In other words, the market values a sold Toyota car 15x less than a Tesla.

丰田汽车的销量是特斯拉的 5 倍多，但其市值仅为电动汽车领先者的 1/3。换句话说，一辆已售出的丰田汽车的市场价值比特斯拉低 15 倍。

The Incumbent Dilemma

当前的困境

Toyota's existing volume of vehicle sales and overall activity can work both ways:

丰田现有的汽车销量和整体活动可以双向发挥作用：

On the one hand, it gives Toyota a massive war chest to invest in new technologies like EVs, as it can generate large amounts of cash flow from its existing operations. This cash flow can be used to fund R&D, factory construction, and other capital-intensive activities. For instance, Toyota announced plans in September 2023 to invest $7.4 billion in battery production in Japan.

一方面，它为丰田提供了巨大的资金来投资电动汽车等新技术，因为它可以从现有业务中产生大量现金流。这些现金流可用于资助研发、工厂建设和其他资本密集型活动。例如，丰田于 2023 年 9 月宣布计划投资 74 亿美元在日本生产电池。

On the other hand, Toyota's massive scale and legacy operations might also make it slower to adapt to new technologies and market trends. This is because it has a lot of sunk costs in its existing technologies and supply chain, which might make it harder to shift toward new paradigms like EVs. For example, Toyota was initially skeptical of the ability of early EVs to take over the auto market. This was because EVs would either have too short a range or be too expensive to grab the mass market of people just needing a “good enough” car for everyday use.

另一方面，丰田的大规模和传统业务也可能使其适应新技术和市场趋势的速度变慢。这是因为其现有技术和供应链存在大量沉没成本，这可能会使其更难以转向电动汽车等新模式。例如，丰田最初对早期电动汽车占领汽车市场的能力持怀疑态度。这是因为电动汽车要么续航里程太短，要么太昂贵，无法占领那些只需要一辆“足够好”的日常使用汽车的大众市场。

While EVs have definitely made massive inroads and seem the future of the industry, it appears that Toyota's expectation of a relatively slow switch toward EVs is ultimately vindicated, especially out of China.

虽然电动汽车确实取得了巨大的进步，并且似乎是该行业的未来，但丰田相对缓慢地转向电动汽车的预期最终得到了证实，尤其是在中国。

Another factor is that Toyota is selling all over the world, and in many places, it is only now that the network of charging stations and electric grids are starting to adapt to EVs.

另一个因素是，丰田汽车的销售遍布全球，而且在许多地方，直到现在充电站和电网网络才开始适应电动汽车。

Focus On Hybrid

专注于混合动力

If Toyota has been slow with EVs, it was a pioneer with hybrids, notably with the first luxury hybrid under the Lexus brand back in 2005 with the RX 400h.

如果说丰田在电动汽车领域进展缓慢，那么它在混合动力汽车领域却是先驱，尤其是 2005 年雷克萨斯品牌下的首款豪华混合动力汽车 RX 400h。

Today, “electrified vehicles” make up 43.2% of Toyota and Lexus sales, with the vast majority being HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles). The Prius hybrid model has built a reputation as a blend of luxury, efficiency, and green credentials (even though EVs have slightly overtaken its green image).

如今，“电动汽车”占丰田和雷克萨斯销量的 43.2%，其中绝大多数是 HEV（混合动力电动汽车）。普锐斯混合动力车型因其豪华、高效和绿色环保而享有盛誉（尽管电动汽车已经略微超越了其绿色形象）。

To this day, the company is still optimizing the concept, with a new Guinness world record for the highest MPG (miles per gallon) for a coast-to-coast drive in September 2024 achieved with a Prius.

时至今日，该公司仍在优化这一概念，并于 2024 年 9 月用普锐斯创下了从东海岸到西海岸行驶最高 MPG（每加仑英里数）的新吉尼斯世界纪录。

The trip was from Los Angeles City Hall to New York City Hall in a Prius LE and achieved a fuel economy average of 93.158 MPG for the entire trip (2.53 L/100km). For reference, the previous record was in the mid-70s MPG.

此次行程是乘坐普锐斯 LE 从洛杉矶市政厅前往纽约市政厅，整个行程的平均燃油经济性为 93.158 英里/加仑（2.53 升/100 公里）。作为参考，之前的记录是 70 年代中期 MPG。

Of course, this was done with an eye on optimizing performance, but the new Prius model in 2023 has an equally impressive EPA-estimated 57 MPG combined (4.13 L/100km).

当然，这是为了优化性能，但 2023 年的新款 Prius 车型的 EPA 估计综合油耗为 57 MPG（4.13 L/100km），同样令人印象深刻。

Moving Toward EVs

转向电动汽车

After a long wait, Toyota is finally moving forward into the EV market with a very determined strategy.

经过漫长的等待，丰田终于以非常坚定的策略进军电动汽车市场。

In September 2023, it released its battery technology roadmap that will be the cornerstone of its EV manufacturing capabilities. It includes in its plans:

2023年9月，它发布了电池技术路线图，这将成为其电动汽车制造能力的基石。它的计划包括：

Battery Tech Roadmap

电池技术路线图

Something unique in Toyota's approach to EVs is that it will embrace a wide variety of battery designs, instead of trying to focus on just one or two at a time and switch to new technology later on.

丰田电动汽车方法的独特之处在于，它将采用多种电池设计，而不是试图一次只关注一两种电池，然后再转向新技术。

“We will need various options for batteries, just like we have different variations of engines. It is important to offer battery solutions compatible with a variety of models and customer needs.”

“我们需要多种电池选择，就像我们有不同的发动机一样。提供与各种型号和客户需求兼容的电池解决方案非常重要。”

Takero Kato - President of Toyota BEV Factory

加藤武郎 (Takero Kato) - 丰田 BEV 工厂厂长

So, there will be four battery techs for Toyota:

因此，丰田将有四种电池技术：

Overall, Toyota will embrace its proprietary LFP design for lower-cost models, offer “performance” Li-ion for high-end vehicles, and target ultra-long range with or without solid-state battery for luxury models.

总体而言，丰田将为低成本车型采用其专有的磷酸铁锂设计，为高端车辆提供“高性能”锂离子电池，并为豪华车型提供带或不带固态电池的超长续航里程。

Of course,

当然，