豐田：現有的困境

長期以來，汽車業被視為「無聊」的工業週期性產業。然而，在過去十年中，隨著電動車的出現

Despite the recent surge in electric vehicle (EV) popularity, largely driven by the entry of new automakers like Tesla and Rivian, the top five automakers in 2023 were still established manufacturers, outselling the newcomers by a significant margin.

儘管最近電動車(EV) 的受歡迎程度大幅上升，這主要是由特斯拉和Rivian 等新汽車製造商的進入推動的，但2023 年排名前五的汽車製造商仍然是老牌製造商，銷量大幅超過新晉汽車製造商。

For instance, Toyota sold 10,565,814 vehicles in 2023, while Tesla sold 1,808,581 EVs and BYD sold 3,024,417 vehicles. This indicates that the established players are facing pressure to adapt but are far from being out of the game.

例如，豐田在 2023 年銷售了 10,565,814 輛汽車，而特斯拉則銷售了 1,808,581 輛電動車，比亞迪則銷售了 3,024,417 輛汽車。這顯示老牌玩家面臨適應壓力，但遠未被淘汰。

One company that has been at the forefront of discussions related to new technologies is Toyota. The Toyota group includes the Toyota and Lexus brands, as well as Daihatsu (cars), Hino Motors (trucks and buses), and Toyota Industry (mainly forklifts, logistic tools, and looms).

豐田是一直處於新技術相關討論前沿的公司之一。豐田集團包括豐田和雷克薩斯品牌，以及大發（汽車）、日野汽車（卡車和巴士）和豐田工業（主要是堆高機、物流工具和織布機）。

With a volume of cars sold that is more than 5x that of Tesla, Toyota has a market capitalization that is only 1/3rd of the EV leader. In other words, the market values a sold Toyota car 15x less than a Tesla.

豐田汽車的銷量是特斯拉的 5 倍多，但其市值僅為電動車領先企業的 1/3。換句話說，一輛已售出的豐田汽車的市值比特斯拉低 15 倍。

The Incumbent Dilemma

當前的困境

Toyota's existing volume of vehicle sales and overall activity can work both ways:

豐田現有的汽車銷售和整體活動可以雙向發揮作用：

On the one hand, it gives Toyota a massive war chest to invest in new technologies like EVs, as it can generate large amounts of cash flow from its existing operations. This cash flow can be used to fund R&D, factory construction, and other capital-intensive activities. For instance, Toyota announced plans in September 2023 to invest $7.4 billion in battery production in Japan.

一方面，它為豐田提供了巨大的資金來投資電動車等新技術，因為它可以從現有業務中產生大量現金流。這些現金流可用於資助研發、工廠建設和其他資本密集型活動。例如，豐田於 2023 年 9 月宣布計劃投資 74 億美元在日本生產電池。

On the other hand, Toyota's massive scale and legacy operations might also make it slower to adapt to new technologies and market trends. This is because it has a lot of sunk costs in its existing technologies and supply chain, which might make it harder to shift toward new paradigms like EVs. For example, Toyota was initially skeptical of the ability of early EVs to take over the auto market. This was because EVs would either have too short a range or be too expensive to grab the mass market of people just needing a “good enough” car for everyday use.

另一方面，豐田的大規模和傳統業務也可能使其適應新技術和市場趨勢的速度變慢。這是因為其現有技術和供應鏈存在大量沉沒成本，這可能會使其更難以轉向電動車等新模式。例如，豐田最初對早期電動車佔據汽車市場的能力持懷疑態度。這是因為電動車要么續航里程太短，要么太昂貴，無法佔領那些只需要一輛「足夠好」的日常使用汽車的大眾市場。

While EVs have definitely made massive inroads and seem the future of the industry, it appears that Toyota's expectation of a relatively slow switch toward EVs is ultimately vindicated, especially out of China.

雖然電動車確實取得了巨大的進步，並且似乎是該行業的未來，但豐田相對緩慢地轉向電動車的預期最終得到了證實，尤其是在中國。

Another factor is that Toyota is selling all over the world, and in many places, it is only now that the network of charging stations and electric grids are starting to adapt to EVs.

另一個因素是，豐田汽車的銷售遍布全球，而且在許多地方，直到現在充電站和電網網路才開始適應電動車。

Focus On Hybrid

專注於混合動力

If Toyota has been slow with EVs, it was a pioneer with hybrids, notably with the first luxury hybrid under the Lexus brand back in 2005 with the RX 400h.

如果說豐田在電動車領域進展緩慢，那麼它在混合動力車領域卻是先驅，尤其是 2005 年雷克薩斯品牌下的首款豪華混合動力車 RX 400h。

Today, “electrified vehicles” make up 43.2% of Toyota and Lexus sales, with the vast majority being HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles). The Prius hybrid model has built a reputation as a blend of luxury, efficiency, and green credentials (even though EVs have slightly overtaken its green image).

如今，「電動車」佔豐田和雷克薩斯銷量的 43.2%，其中絕大多數是 HEV（混合動力電動車）。普銳斯混合動力車型因其豪華、高效和綠色環保而享有盛譽（儘管電動車已經略微超越了其綠色形象）。

To this day, the company is still optimizing the concept, with a new Guinness world record for the highest MPG (miles per gallon) for a coast-to-coast drive in September 2024 achieved with a Prius.

時至今日，該公司仍在優化這一概念，並於 2024 年 9 月用普銳斯創下了從東海岸到西海岸行駛最高 MPG（每加侖英里數）的新吉尼斯世界紀錄。

The trip was from Los Angeles City Hall to New York City Hall in a Prius LE and achieved a fuel economy average of 93.158 MPG for the entire trip (2.53 L/100km). For reference, the previous record was in the mid-70s MPG.

此次行程是搭乘普銳斯 LE 從洛杉磯市政廳前往紐約市政廳，整個行程的平均燃油經濟性為 93.158 英里/加侖（2.53 公升/100 公里）。作為參考，之前的記錄是 70 年代中期 MPG。

Of course, this was done with an eye on optimizing performance, but the new Prius model in 2023 has an equally impressive EPA-estimated 57 MPG combined (4.13 L/100km).

當然，這是為了優化性能，但 2023 年的新款 Prius 車型的 EPA 估計綜合油耗為 57 MPG（4.13 L/100km），同樣令人印象深刻。

Moving Toward EVs

轉向電動車

After a long wait, Toyota is finally moving forward into the EV market with a very determined strategy.

經過漫長的等待，豐田終於以非常堅定的策略進軍電動車市場。

In September 2023, it released its battery technology roadmap that will be the cornerstone of its EV manufacturing capabilities. It includes in its plans:

2023年9月，它發布了電池技術路線圖，這將成為其電動車製造能力的基石。它的計劃包括：

Battery Tech Roadmap

電池技術路線圖

Something unique in Toyota's approach to EVs is that it will embrace a wide variety of battery designs, instead of trying to focus on just one or two at a time and switch to new technology later on.

豐田電動車方法的獨特之處在於，它將採用多種電池設計，而不是試圖一次只專注於一兩種電池，然後再轉向新技術。

“We will need various options for batteries, just like we have different variations of engines. It is important to offer battery solutions compatible with a variety of models and customer needs.”

「我們需要多種電池選擇，就像我們有不同的引擎一樣。提供與各種型號和客戶需求相容的電池解決方案非常重要。

Takero Kato - President of Toyota BEV Factory

加藤武郎 (Takero Kato) - 豐田 BEV 工廠廠長

So, there will be four battery techs for Toyota:

因此，豐田將有四種電池技術：

Overall, Toyota will embrace its proprietary LFP design for lower-cost models, offer “performance” Li-ion for high-end vehicles, and target ultra-long range with or without solid-state battery for luxury models.

總體而言，豐田將為低成本車型採用其專有的磷酸鐵鋰設計，為高端車輛提供「高性能」鋰離子電池，並為豪華車型提供帶或不帶固態電池的超長續航里程。

Of course,

當然，