“股票市场是将资金从不耐烦的患者转移到患者的设备。”

“上周的市场向我们展示了为什么耐心在这项业务中很重要。”

The S&P 500 recovered last week, rising 6% as the White House walked back some of its tariff plans. However, despite the rally, the market remains below pre-tariff levels. To return to those highs, the S&P 500 would need to surge another 5.7%.

标准普尔500指数上周恢复了6％，因为白宫退缩了一些关税计划。然而，尽管集会，市场仍低于续签前的水平。要返回这些高点，标准普尔500指数需要再增加5.7％。

The small caps took the brunt of the selloff, despite starting the year with better valuations than large caps. Of the main sectors, only consumer staples and utilities finished in positive territory, while tech and consumer discretionary lagged significantly.

小帽子首当其冲，尽管从本年开始，比大帽子更好。在主要部门中，只有消费者的主食和公用事业在积极的领域完成，而技术和消费者的酌处权则大大落后。

Global Perspective

全球视角

The weakening dollar had one bright side: international stocks outperformed. Both Latin America and Europe reported gains exceeding 5% for the year. Nevertheless, several troubling trends emerged in the global markets.

疲软的美元有一个光明的一面：国际股票表现优于。拉丁美洲和欧洲的年度收益均超过5％。然而，全球市场出现了几种令人不安的趋势。

Commodities & Cryptocurrency

商品与加密货币

Oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude futures crashing 12.5% over just two trading days, a move usually linked to recessions. The EIA slashed its price forecasts to $67.87 per barrel for 2025 and $61.48 for 2026.

石油价格暴跌，布伦特原油期货在短短两个交易日内崩溃了12.5％，这一举动通常与衰退有关。 EIA将其价格预测削减至2025年的每桶67.87美元，2026年的价格预期为61.48美元。

Gold soared 6.6%, hitting all-time highs of $3,200 per ounce. The iShares Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:JGMC) and the VanEck’s (NYSE:GDX) surged 19%. Silver futures advanced 8.3% but remained below their 2024 peak.

黄金飙升了6.6％，达到每盎司3,200美元的历史高潮。 iShares全球金矿矿工ETF（NYSE：JGMC）和Vaneck's（NYSE：GDX）飙升了19％。白银期货提高了8.3％，但仍低于其2024峰值。

Bitcoin futures closed at $83,730, marking a 6.8% increase for the week despite high volatility. Ethereum showed strength against Bitcoin, and Kaspa Coin jumped 13% ahead of its May 5 hard fork. Ripple acquired prime brokerage firm Hidden Road for $1.25 billion.

比特币期货收于83,730美元，尽管波动率很高，因此一周增长了6.8％。以太坊表现出对比特币的强度，而卡巴·硬币在5月5日硬叉之前跃升了13％。 Ripple以12.5亿美元的价格收购了Prime Brokerage公司Hidden Road。

Key Events & Economic Calendar

关键事件和经济日历

This week will bring important economic data and earnings reports.

本周将带来重要的经济数据和收益报告。

My Take

我的看法

The dollar is at the bottom of its three-year range, and a breakdown through 99 could trigger another 10% decline, leading me to believe we might be entering a weak dollar period.

美元处于其三年范围的底部，而99岁的细分可能会触发10％的下降，这使我相信我们可能会进入薄弱的美元时期。

The 10-year Treasury yield also surged last week and seems headed toward 5%, a level that could heavily impact the administration’s economic plans. With mortgage rates increasing, we can expect a decline in the housing market.

上周这项为期10年的财政收益率也飙升，似乎朝着5％迈进，这一水平可能会严重影响政府的经济计划。随着抵押贷款利率的提高，我们可以预期住房市场会下降。

Let’s be clear: this trade war might just be beginning. Stay flexible, focus on quality stocks, and don’t try to catch every falling knife. I am selling puts on stocks that I would like to buy.

让我们清楚一点：这场贸易战可能只是开始。保持灵活性，专注于优质的股票，不要试图抓住所有掉下的刀。我正在出售我想购买的股票。

The Trump administration has a nearly impossible task, given the hand they were dealt. My take is that they are trying to get better trade deals to offset the deficit and out-of-control government spending. Unless you buy into the modern monetary theory, the numbers are truly frightening.

鉴于他们被交给了，特朗普政府几乎是不可能的任务。我的看法是，他们正试图获得更好的贸易协议，以抵消赤字和控制之外的政府支出。除非您购买现代货币理论，否则数字确实令人恐惧。

Treasury Secretary Bessent is the right man for the job. He understands economics and is promoting a strategic, long-term, strong America. He mentions that continuing the current level of government spending would have been the easiest course of action, but he does not believe it is a sustainable long-term solution.

财政部长Bessent是这份工作的合适人选。他了解经济学，并促进了战略性，长期，强大的美国。他提到，继续当前的政府支出是最简单的行动方案，但他不认为这是可持续的长期解决方案。

Bessent, along with President Trump, recognizes that the transition away from heavy government spending may require a period of “pain” in the short term, but ultimately lead to long-term economic benefits.

Bessent与特朗普总统一起认识到，从繁重的政府支出过渡可能需要在短期内“痛苦”，但最终会带来长期的经济利益。

And remember – in markets driven by policy whiplash, cash is king. It’s dry powder for the opportunities that always emerge from chaos.

请记住 - 在政策鞭打驱动的市场中，现金是国王。这是干粉，因为总是从混乱中浮现的机会。