“股票市場是將資金從不耐煩的患者轉移到患者的設備。”

“上週的市場向我們展示了為什麼耐心在這項業務中很重要。”

The S&P 500 recovered last week, rising 6% as the White House walked back some of its tariff plans. However, despite the rally, the market remains below pre-tariff levels. To return to those highs, the S&P 500 would need to surge another 5.7%.

標準普爾500指數上週恢復了6％，因為白宮退縮了一些關稅計劃。然而，儘管集會，市場仍低於續簽前的水平。要返回這些高點，標準普爾500指數需要再增加5.7％。

The small caps took the brunt of the selloff, despite starting the year with better valuations than large caps. Of the main sectors, only consumer staples and utilities finished in positive territory, while tech and consumer discretionary lagged significantly.

小帽子首當其衝，儘管從本年開始，比大帽子更好。在主要部門中，只有消費者的主食和公用事業在積極的領域完成，而技術和消費者的酌處權則大大落後。

Global Perspective

全球視角

The weakening dollar had one bright side: international stocks outperformed. Both Latin America and Europe reported gains exceeding 5% for the year. Nevertheless, several troubling trends emerged in the global markets.

疲軟的美元有一個光明的一面：國際股票表現優於。拉丁美洲和歐洲的年度收益均超過5％。然而，全球市場出現了幾種令人不安的趨勢。

Commodities & Cryptocurrency

商品與加密貨幣

Oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude futures crashing 12.5% over just two trading days, a move usually linked to recessions. The EIA slashed its price forecasts to $67.87 per barrel for 2025 and $61.48 for 2026.

石油價格暴跌，布倫特原油期貨在短短兩個交易日內崩潰了12.5％，這一舉動通常與衰退有關。 EIA將其價格預測削減至2025年的每桶67.87美元，2026年的價格預期為61.48美元。

Gold soared 6.6%, hitting all-time highs of $3,200 per ounce. The iShares Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:JGMC) and the VanEck’s (NYSE:GDX) surged 19%. Silver futures advanced 8.3% but remained below their 2024 peak.

黃金飆升了6.6％，達到每盎司3,200美元的歷史高潮。 iShares全球金礦礦工ETF（NYSE：JGMC）和Vaneck's（NYSE：GDX）飆升了19％。白銀期貨提高了8.3％，但仍低於其2024峰值。

Bitcoin futures closed at $83,730, marking a 6.8% increase for the week despite high volatility. Ethereum showed strength against Bitcoin, and Kaspa Coin jumped 13% ahead of its May 5 hard fork. Ripple acquired prime brokerage firm Hidden Road for $1.25 billion.

比特幣期貨收於83,730美元，儘管波動率很高，因此一周增長了6.8％。以太坊表現出對比特幣的強度，而卡巴·硬幣在5月5日硬叉之前躍升了13％。 Ripple以12.5億美元的價格收購了Prime Brokerage公司Hidden Road。

Key Events & Economic Calendar

關鍵事件和經濟日曆

This week will bring important economic data and earnings reports.

本週將帶來重要的經濟數據和收益報告。

My Take

我的看法

The dollar is at the bottom of its three-year range, and a breakdown through 99 could trigger another 10% decline, leading me to believe we might be entering a weak dollar period.

美元處於其三年範圍的底部，而99歲的細分可能會觸發10％的下降，這使我相信我們可能會進入薄弱的美元時期。

The 10-year Treasury yield also surged last week and seems headed toward 5%, a level that could heavily impact the administration’s economic plans. With mortgage rates increasing, we can expect a decline in the housing market.

上週這項為期10年的財政收益率也飆升，似乎朝著5％邁進，這一水平可能會嚴重影響政府的經濟計劃。隨著抵押貸款利率的提高，我們可以預期住房市場會下降。

Let’s be clear: this trade war might just be beginning. Stay flexible, focus on quality stocks, and don’t try to catch every falling knife. I am selling puts on stocks that I would like to buy.

讓我們清楚一點：這場貿易戰可能只是開始。保持靈活性，專注於優質的股票，不要試圖抓住所有掉下的刀。我正在出售我想購買的股票。

The Trump administration has a nearly impossible task, given the hand they were dealt. My take is that they are trying to get better trade deals to offset the deficit and out-of-control government spending. Unless you buy into the modern monetary theory, the numbers are truly frightening.

鑑於他們被交給了，特朗普政府幾乎是不可能的任務。我的看法是，他們正試圖獲得更好的貿易協議，以抵消赤字和控制之外的政府支出。除非您購買現代貨幣理論，否則數字確實令人恐懼。

Treasury Secretary Bessent is the right man for the job. He understands economics and is promoting a strategic, long-term, strong America. He mentions that continuing the current level of government spending would have been the easiest course of action, but he does not believe it is a sustainable long-term solution.

財政部長Bessent是這份工作的合適人選。他了解經濟學，並促進了戰略性，長期，強大的美國。他提到，繼續當前的政府支出是最簡單的行動方案，但他不認為這是可持續的長期解決方案。

Bessent, along with President Trump, recognizes that the transition away from heavy government spending may require a period of “pain” in the short term, but ultimately lead to long-term economic benefits.

Bessent與特朗普總統一起認識到，從繁重的政府支出過渡可能需要在短期內“痛苦”，但最終會帶來長期的經濟利益。

And remember – in markets driven by policy whiplash, cash is king. It’s dry powder for the opportunities that always emerge from chaos.

請記住 - 在政策鞭打驅動的市場中，現金是國王。這是乾粉，因為總是從混亂中浮現的機會。