Stablecoins流入衍生品市场，将比特币的[BTC]价格行动处于危险之中

自11月以来，稳定菌的供应量显着增加，与比特币的[BTC] Bullish Rally相吻合。

Since November, there has been a significant increase in the supply of stablecoins, coinciding with Bitcoin’s [BTC] bullish rally.

自11月以来，稳定菌的供应量显着增加，与比特币的[BTC] Bullish Rally相吻合。

However, this liquidity has predominantly flowed into derivatives markets rather than spot markets.

但是，这种流动性主要流入衍生品市场，而不是现货市场。

This report analyzes the implications of this trend. Is the market overleveraged, and could excessive high-leverage trading put Bitcoin’s short-term price action at risk?

该报告分析了这一趋势的含义。市场是否过度使用，并且过度高杠杆交易是否会使比特币的短期价格行动处于风险状态？

Leveraged bets lead the way in stablecoin use

利用赌注导致使用stablecoin使用

A growing stablecoin supply typically indicates increased buying power. But its diversion into derivatives suggests traders are favoring leveraged positions over direct BTC accumulation.

稳定的稳定供应通常表明购买力增加。但是，它转移到衍生工具上表明，交易者比直接BTC积累的杠杆位置更喜欢杠杆位置。

Since November, traders have added around $20 billion in Tether (USDT) to circulation, coinciding with Bitcoin’s climb to its all-time high of $109k.

自11月以来，贸易商已增加了约200亿美元的Tether（USDT）来流通，这与比特币的攀登达到了其历史最高点109K的高价。

While this surge pointed to heightened USDT liquidity in the market, particularly in BTC buying pressure, data from CryptoQuant revealed much of this liquidity was funneled into high-risk leveraged trading.

尽管这次激增指出了市场上的USDT流动性提高，尤其是在BTC购买压力方面，CryptoQuant的数据显示，这种流动性大部分都被汇入了高风险的杠杆交易中。

As the derivatives market saw a spike in buy orders, Open Interest (OI) soared to an all-time high of $70 billion on the 22nd of January.

随着衍生品市场的买入订单激增，1月22日开放利息（OI）飙升至历史最高700亿美元。

Currently, it stands at $52 billion. The closure of these positions has exerted intense downward pressure on BTC’s price, making it challenging for Bitcoin to reclaim the $90k mark.

目前，它的价格为520亿美元。这些职位的关闭对BTC的价格施加了强烈的向下压力，因此比特币要重新获得90,000美元的大关挑战。

Weak spot demand puts Bitcoin’s future at risk

弱点需求使比特币的未来处于危险之中

The USDT movement on election day shows this shift clearly. On the 6th of November, net outflow of stablecoins from spot exchanges signaled heightened buying activity – typically a bearish indicator.

大选日的USDT运动清楚地表明了这一转变。 11月6日，稳定股币的净流出源是现货交换，标志着购买活动的增长 - 通常是看跌指标。

However, the derivatives market saw an explosive inflow of 1.2 billion in USDT, pointing to a rise in leveraged trading.

但是，衍生品市场的爆炸性流入为12亿美元，这表明杠杆交易的增加。

While such liquidity influxes in derivatives can indicate bullish sentiment in a strong market, they introduce significant risk in a volatile environment.

尽管这种流动性涌入的衍生品可以表明在强烈的市场中看涨看涨的情绪，但它们在动荡的环境中引入了重大风险。

Following the FOMC meeting, which sparked slight optimism for potential rate cuts, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) saw a dramatic increase.

在FOMC会议上对削减潜力率的略微乐观态度后，比特币的估计杠杆比率（ELR）急剧增加。

As expectations for lower borrowing costs grew, traders flocked to high-leverage positions. This trend is one to watch closely as Q2 progresses.

随着对较低借贷成本的期望增长，交易者蜂拥而至。随着第二季度的进展，这种趋势是密切关注的趋势。

Given the weak accumulation in the spot market, these leveraged positions face a higher likelihood of liquidation.

考虑到现货市场中的积累较弱，这些杠杆位置面临着更高的清算可能性。

In this environment, stablecoin inflows may continue to dominate the derivatives market. Pushing Bitcoin beyond the $90k threshold could become a significant challenge.

在这种环境中，Stablecoin流入可能会继续主导衍生品市场。将比特币推高超过$ 90K的门槛可能会成为一个重大挑战。