Stablecoins流入衍生品市場，將比特幣的[BTC]價格行動處於危險之中

自11月以來，穩定菌的供應量顯著增加，與比特幣的[BTC] Bullish Rally相吻合。

Since November, there has been a significant increase in the supply of stablecoins, coinciding with Bitcoin’s [BTC] bullish rally.

自11月以來，穩定菌的供應量顯著增加，與比特幣的[BTC] Bullish Rally相吻合。

However, this liquidity has predominantly flowed into derivatives markets rather than spot markets.

但是，這種流動性主要流入衍生品市場，而不是現貨市場。

This report analyzes the implications of this trend. Is the market overleveraged, and could excessive high-leverage trading put Bitcoin’s short-term price action at risk?

該報告分析了這一趨勢的含義。市場是否過度使用，並且過度高槓桿交易是否會使比特幣的短期價格行動處於風險狀態？

Leveraged bets lead the way in stablecoin use

利用賭注導致使用stablecoin使用

A growing stablecoin supply typically indicates increased buying power. But its diversion into derivatives suggests traders are favoring leveraged positions over direct BTC accumulation.

穩定的穩定供應通常表明購買力增加。但是，它轉移到衍生工具上表明，交易者比直接BTC積累的槓杆位置更喜歡槓杆位置。

Since November, traders have added around $20 billion in Tether (USDT) to circulation, coinciding with Bitcoin’s climb to its all-time high of $109k.

自11月以來，貿易商已增加了約200億美元的Tether（USDT）來流通，這與比特幣的攀登達到了其歷史最高點109K的高價。

While this surge pointed to heightened USDT liquidity in the market, particularly in BTC buying pressure, data from CryptoQuant revealed much of this liquidity was funneled into high-risk leveraged trading.

儘管這次激增指出了市場上的USDT流動性提高，尤其是在BTC購買壓力方面，CryptoQuant的數據顯示，這種流動性大部分都被匯入了高風險的槓桿交易中。

As the derivatives market saw a spike in buy orders, Open Interest (OI) soared to an all-time high of $70 billion on the 22nd of January.

隨著衍生品市場的買入訂單激增，1月22日開放利息（OI）飆升至歷史最高700億美元。

Currently, it stands at $52 billion. The closure of these positions has exerted intense downward pressure on BTC’s price, making it challenging for Bitcoin to reclaim the $90k mark.

目前，它的價格為520億美元。這些職位的關閉對BTC的價格施加了強烈的向下壓力，因此比特幣要重新獲得90,000美元的大關挑戰。

Weak spot demand puts Bitcoin’s future at risk

弱點需求使比特幣的未來處於危險之中

The USDT movement on election day shows this shift clearly. On the 6th of November, net outflow of stablecoins from spot exchanges signaled heightened buying activity – typically a bearish indicator.

大選日的USDT運動清楚地表明了這一轉變。 11月6日，穩定股幣的淨流出源是現貨交換，標誌著購買活動的增長 - 通常是看跌指標。

However, the derivatives market saw an explosive inflow of 1.2 billion in USDT, pointing to a rise in leveraged trading.

但是，衍生品市場的爆炸性流入為12億美元，這表明槓桿交易的增加。

While such liquidity influxes in derivatives can indicate bullish sentiment in a strong market, they introduce significant risk in a volatile environment.

儘管這種流動性湧入的衍生品可以表明在強烈的市場中看漲看漲的情緒，但它們在動蕩的環境中引入了重大風險。

Following the FOMC meeting, which sparked slight optimism for potential rate cuts, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) saw a dramatic increase.

在FOMC會議上對削減潛力率的略微樂觀態度後，比特幣的估計槓桿比率（ELR）急劇增加。

As expectations for lower borrowing costs grew, traders flocked to high-leverage positions. This trend is one to watch closely as Q2 progresses.

隨著對較低借貸成本的期望增長，交易者蜂擁而至。隨著第二季度的進展，這種趨勢是密切關注的趨勢。

Given the weak accumulation in the spot market, these leveraged positions face a higher likelihood of liquidation.

考慮到現貨市場中的積累較弱，這些槓杆位置面臨著更高的清算可能性。

In this environment, stablecoin inflows may continue to dominate the derivatives market. Pushing Bitcoin beyond the $90k threshold could become a significant challenge.

在這種環境中，Stablecoin流入可能會繼續主導衍生品市場。將比特幣推高超過$ 90K的門檻可能會成為一個重大挑戰。