稳定币的流动和比特币的价格紧密相连——当稳定币流动时，比特币往往会跟随

以去年第四季度的“特朗普暴涨”为例——稳定币供应量飙升 16.9%，达到 1888.2 亿美元，比特币 [BTC] 从 6.78 万美元攀升

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely linked to the supply of stablecoins in the market. When stablecoin liquidity increases, it often signals that investors are preparing for another round of bullish activity. This was evident during the ‘Trump Pump’ in Q4 last year, where a massive influx of stablecoins drove Bitcoin’s price up by 56.5%.

比特币的价格走势与市场上稳定币的供应密切相关。当稳定币流动性增加时，通常表明投资者正在为另一轮看涨活动做准备。这在去年第四季度的“特朗普暴涨”期间表现得很明显，稳定币的大量涌入推动比特币价格上涨了 56.5%。

Now, as we approach another ‘Trump Pump,’ the market is showing signs of shifting towards caution. Liquidity inflows are slowing down, and investors are speculating less on Bitcoin’s future movements. This could indicate that the ‘high-risk, high-reward’ nature of crypto is starting to lose its appeal.

现在，当我们接近另一个“特朗普泵”时，市场正显示出转向谨慎的迹象。流动性流入正在放缓，投资者对比特币未来走势的猜测也减少了。这可能表明加密货币的“高风险、高回报”性质开始失去吸引力。

Bitcoin’s price has recovered from $91k to $97k (at the time of writing), showing that traders are preparing for the next big rally. This corresponds with an inflow of $311.5 million in Tether USD (ERC20) stablecoins over the same period.

比特币的价格已从 9.1 万美元恢复至 9.7 万美元（截至撰写本文时），表明交易者正在为下一次大幅上涨做好准备。这与同期 Tether USD (ERC20) 稳定币流入 3.115 亿美元相对应。

As stablecoin liquidity rises, investors tend to double down on their investments, boosting the overall market momentum. However, these inflows are still significantly lower than those observed during key events last year.

随着稳定币流动性的增加，投资者往往会加倍投资，从而提振整体市场动力。然而，这些流入量仍明显低于去年关键事件期间观察到的流入量。

For instance, on Election Day, a net flow of $2.15 billion in stablecoins entered the market, marking the highest influx of the year. During this period, BTC surged by 8.24% in a single day, breaking through the $70k level for the first time in eight months.

例如，选举日当天，21.5 亿美元的稳定币净流入市场，创下今年的最高流入量。在此期间，BTC单日飙升8.24%，八个月来首次突破7万美元大关。

Moreover, in the two months following the Trump pump, $27.35 billion in stablecoins flowed across exchanges, contributing to Bitcoin’s 56.5% surge to $106.5k. This highlights how stablecoins, which are typically viewed as ‘safe haven’ assets, played a role in fueling Bitcoin’s bullish rally in Q4.

此外，在特朗普暴涨后的两个月内，273.5 亿美元的稳定币在交易所之间流动，导致比特币飙升 56.5% 至 10.65 万美元。这凸显了通常被视为“避险”资产的稳定币如何在推动比特币第四季度看涨反弹中发挥了作用。

However, the market dynamics have changed since then. Two clashes with the Fed, high inflation, and rising selling pressure have impacted the market. Open Interest (OI) has dropped from $68 billion to $61 billion, and the stablecoin market cap has seen a modest +0.56% change over the last 30 days.

然而，此后市场动态发生了变化。与美联储的两次冲突、高通胀和不断上升的抛售压力对市场产生了影响。未平仓合约 (OI) 从 680 亿美元下降到 610 亿美元，稳定币市值在过去 30 天内小幅变化了 0.56%。

Despite the slower liquidity inflows, there are some positive observations. The drop in Open Interest (OI) suggests that investors are speculating less on Bitcoin’s future movements, which could lead to greater market stability.

尽管流动性流入放缓，但仍出现了一些积极的观察结果。未平仓合约（OI）的下降表明投资者对比特币未来走势的猜测减少，这可能会导致市场更加稳定。

With high stakes at play, this shift towards caution among investors might be a sign of the market maturing, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory.

由于风险较高，投资者转向谨慎可能是市场成熟的标志，这最终可能有利于比特币的长期增长轨迹。

Now, if we apply that 56.5% surge to Bitcoin’s current price, it could push BTC past $140k by Q1, with $90k acting as a crucial support level. To the delight of many, the past three days have seen stablecoin net flows turn positive once again, sparking a rally that’s bringing the market back into the green.

现在，如果我们将 56.5% 的涨幅应用到比特币当前价格上，到第一季度，比特币可能会突破 14 万美元，其中 9 万美元将成为关键支撑位。令许多人高兴的是，过去三天稳定币净流量再次转正，引发反弹，使市场重新回升。

But let’s not get carried away just yet – A 50% rally might still be overly ambitious. Especially considering that 88% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in retail hands. Their next moves could be the key to pushing BTC closer to its Q1 target.

但我们暂时不要得意忘形——50% 的反弹可能仍然过于雄心勃勃。特别是考虑到 88% 的比特币供应现在掌握在散户手中。他们的下一步行动可能是推动比特币接近第一季度目标的关键。

A stablecoin influx crossing the billion mark would be our game-changer here, but for now, we’re looking at around 130 million.output: A $100k breakthrough in the short term seems likely, but whether it can hold the levels remains in question. So, eyes on the stablecoin chart are crucial. Even a slight panic could turn the market red in no time.

稳定币流入量突破 10 亿大关将成为我们的游戏规则改变者，但目前我们的目标是 1.3 亿左右。 产出：短期内似乎有可能突破 10 万美元，但能否保持这一水平仍需拭目以待。问题。因此，关注稳定币图表至关重要。即使是轻微的恐慌也可能立即导致市场下跌。