穩定幣的流動和比特幣的價格緊密相連——當穩定幣流動時，比特幣往往會跟隨

以去年第四季的「川普暴漲」為例——穩定幣供應量飆升 16.9%，達到 1,888.2 億美元，比特幣 [BTC] 從 6.78 萬美元攀升

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely linked to the supply of stablecoins in the market. When stablecoin liquidity increases, it often signals that investors are preparing for another round of bullish activity. This was evident during the ‘Trump Pump’ in Q4 last year, where a massive influx of stablecoins drove Bitcoin’s price up by 56.5%.

比特幣的價格走勢與市場上穩定幣的供應密切相關。當穩定幣流動性增加時，通常表示投資者正在為另一輪看漲活動做準備。這在去年第四季的「川普暴漲」期間表現得很明顯，穩定幣的大量湧入推動比特幣價格上漲了 56.5%。

Now, as we approach another ‘Trump Pump,’ the market is showing signs of shifting towards caution. Liquidity inflows are slowing down, and investors are speculating less on Bitcoin’s future movements. This could indicate that the ‘high-risk, high-reward’ nature of crypto is starting to lose its appeal.

現在，當我們接近另一個「川普幫浦」時，市場正顯示出轉向謹慎的跡象。流動性流入正在放緩，投資者對比特幣未來走勢的猜測也減少了。這可能表明加密貨幣的「高風險、高回報」性質開始失去吸引力。

Bitcoin’s price has recovered from $91k to $97k (at the time of writing), showing that traders are preparing for the next big rally. This corresponds with an inflow of $311.5 million in Tether USD (ERC20) stablecoins over the same period.

比特幣的價格已從 9.1 萬美元恢復至 9.7 萬美元（截至撰寫本文時），表明交易者正在為下一次大幅上漲做好準備。這與同期 Tether USD (ERC20) 穩定幣流入 3.115 億美元相對應。

As stablecoin liquidity rises, investors tend to double down on their investments, boosting the overall market momentum. However, these inflows are still significantly lower than those observed during key events last year.

隨著穩定幣流動性的增加，投資者往往加倍投資，進而提振整體市場動力。然而，這些資金流入仍顯著低於去年關鍵事件期間觀察到的資金流入。

For instance, on Election Day, a net flow of $2.15 billion in stablecoins entered the market, marking the highest influx of the year. During this period, BTC surged by 8.24% in a single day, breaking through the $70k level for the first time in eight months.

例如，選舉日當天，21.5 億美元的穩定幣淨流入市場，創下今年的最高流入。在此期間，BTC單日飆漲8.24%，八個月來首度突破7萬美元大關。

Moreover, in the two months following the Trump pump, $27.35 billion in stablecoins flowed across exchanges, contributing to Bitcoin’s 56.5% surge to $106.5k. This highlights how stablecoins, which are typically viewed as ‘safe haven’ assets, played a role in fueling Bitcoin’s bullish rally in Q4.

此外，在川普暴漲後的兩個月內，273.5 億美元的穩定幣在交易所之間流動，導致比特幣飆升 56.5% 至 10.65 萬美元。這凸顯了通常被視為「避險」資產的穩定幣如何在推動比特幣第四季度看漲反彈中發揮了作用。

However, the market dynamics have changed since then. Two clashes with the Fed, high inflation, and rising selling pressure have impacted the market. Open Interest (OI) has dropped from $68 billion to $61 billion, and the stablecoin market cap has seen a modest +0.56% change over the last 30 days.

然而，此後市場動態發生了變化。與聯準會的兩次衝突、高通膨和不斷上升的拋售壓力對市場產生了影響。未平倉合約 (OI) 從 680 億美元下降到 610 億美元，穩定幣市值在過去 30 天內小幅變化了 0.56%。

Despite the slower liquidity inflows, there are some positive observations. The drop in Open Interest (OI) suggests that investors are speculating less on Bitcoin’s future movements, which could lead to greater market stability.

儘管流動性流入放緩，但仍出現了一些積極的觀察。未平倉合約（OI）的下降表明投資者對比特幣未來走勢的猜測減少，這可能會導致市場更加穩定。

With high stakes at play, this shift towards caution among investors might be a sign of the market maturing, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory.

由於風險較高，投資者轉向謹慎可能是市場成熟的標誌，最終可能有利於比特幣的長期成長軌跡。

Now, if we apply that 56.5% surge to Bitcoin’s current price, it could push BTC past $140k by Q1, with $90k acting as a crucial support level. To the delight of many, the past three days have seen stablecoin net flows turn positive once again, sparking a rally that’s bringing the market back into the green.

現在，如果我們將 56.5% 的漲幅應用到比特幣當前價格上，到第一季度，比特幣可能會突破 14 萬美元，其中 9 萬美元將成為關鍵支撐位。令許多人高興的是，過去三天穩定幣淨流量再次轉正，引發反彈，使市場重新回升。

But let’s not get carried away just yet – A 50% rally might still be overly ambitious. Especially considering that 88% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in retail hands. Their next moves could be the key to pushing BTC closer to its Q1 target.

但我們暫時不要得意忘形——50% 的反彈可能仍然過於雄心勃勃。特別是考慮到 88% 的比特幣供應現在掌握在散戶手中。他們的下一步行動可能是推動比特幣接近第一季目標的關鍵。

A stablecoin influx crossing the billion mark would be our game-changer here, but for now, we’re looking at around 130 million.output: A $100k breakthrough in the short term seems likely, but whether it can hold the levels remains in question. So, eyes on the stablecoin chart are crucial. Even a slight panic could turn the market red in no time.

穩定幣流入量突破10 億大關將成為我們的遊戲規則改變者，但目前我們的目標是1.3 億左右。拭目以待。因此，關注穩定幣圖表至關重要。即使是輕微的恐慌也可能立即導致市場下跌。