现货比特币 ETF 对于维持比特币的上涨趋势至关重要吗？

现货比特币 ETF 在交易第一周就出现了 8.88 亿美元的大幅净流出，引发了人们对近期涨势可持续性的质疑。然而，市场行为表明，比特币的看涨势头并不仅仅依赖于现货 ETF 流入，尽管有资金流出，但比特币仍上涨了 15%。 1.2万亿美元支出计划的批准和美联储降息的预测已成为积极的催化剂，而比特币衍生品市场仍然乐观，期货溢价和期权偏差表明看涨和看跌策略的需求平衡。

Are Spot Bitcoin ETFs Essential for Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum?

现货比特币 ETF 对比特币看涨势头至关重要吗？

The inaugural week of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a notable reversal, with a net outflow of $888 million from March 18 to March 22. This stark departure from the previous week's $2.57 billion inflow has cast doubt on the sustainability of Bitcoin's recent surge to $70,000 on March 25.

现货比特币（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）首周出现显着逆转，3月18日至3月22日净流出8.88亿美元。这与前一周25.7亿美元的流入形成鲜明对比，引发人们对比特币市场的怀疑。比特币最近在 3 月 25 日飙升至 70,000 美元的可持续性。

Institutional Inflows: A Driving Force or a Mere Catalyst?

机构资金流入：驱动力还是催化剂？

Some market participants had attributed Bitcoin's record high of $73,755 on March 14 to institutional inflows via spot ETFs. However, the subsequent 9% gain between March 23 and March 25, coupled with the S&P 500's inability to sustain its all-time high, has raised questions about the necessity of such inflows for Bitcoin's bullish momentum.

一些市场参与者将比特币 3 月 14 日创下的历史新高 73,755 美元归因于机构通过现货 ETF 流入。然而，随后 3 月 23 日至 3 月 25 日期间上涨 9%，加上标准普尔 500 指数无法维持其历史高点，引发了人们对此类资金流入对于比特币看涨势头的必要性的质疑。

A Reality Check for Bitcoin's Bull Run?

比特币牛市的现实检验？

Analyst venturefoundΞr posits that Bitcoin's recent rally may have been a "FOMO" (fear of missing out) surge driven by ETF investors, resulting in a "trapping" of buyers at the peak before the halving. While the 15% gain from March 20 to March 25 warrants caution, Bitcoin's market behavior suggests a degree of resilience beyond ETF inflows.

VentureFoundΞr分析师认为，比特币近期的上涨可能是ETF投资者推动的“FOMO”（害怕错过）激增，导致买家在减半前的高峰被“困住”。虽然 3 月 20 日至 3 月 25 日期间 15% 的涨幅值得谨慎，但比特币的市场行为表明，除了 ETF 流入之外，比特币还具有一定程度的弹性。

Macroeconomic Catalysts: A Tailwind for Bitcoin?

宏观经济催化剂：比特币的顺风车？

The United States' recent approval of a $1.2 trillion spending package on March 23 is seen by some traders as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin. This optimism stems from the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast of three interest rate cuts throughout 2024, which could mitigate concerns about rising government debt and potentially bolster risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

美国最近于 3 月 23 日批准了 1.2 万亿美元的支出计划，一些交易员认为这是比特币的积极催化剂。这种乐观情绪源于美联储对 2024 年三次降息的预测，这可能会减轻对政府债务上升的担忧，并可能提振比特币等风险资产。

A Weakening Dollar: A Boon for Scarce Assets?

美元疲软：稀缺资产的福音？

The simultaneous rise of scarce assets such as gold, Bitcoin, real estate, and the stock market suggests a weakening U.S. dollar. This devaluation of fiat currencies is prompting investors to seek refuge in alternative assets, regardless of the euro or British pound's performance against the dollar.

黄金、比特币、房地产和股市等稀缺资产的同时上涨表明美元走弱。无论欧元或英镑兑美元的表现如何，法定货币的贬值都促使投资者寻求替代资产的避难。

Monetary Expansion: A Double-Edged Sword?

货币扩张：一把双刃剑？

Predicting a sustained upward trajectory for Bitcoin based solely on monetary expansion may be premature. However, bears arguing that the U.S. fiscal trajectory will lead to a recession, potentially harming risk-on assets, overlook Bitcoin's impressive 64% year-to-date gain in 2024.

仅根据货币扩张来预测比特币的持续上涨轨迹可能还为时过早。然而，空头认为美国的财政轨迹将导致经济衰退，可能损害风险资产，却忽视了比特币 2024 年迄今为止 64% 的惊人涨幅。

Bitcoin Derivatives: A Gauge of Professional Sentiment

比特币衍生品：专业情绪的衡量标准

To assess professional traders' sentiment following the disappointing spot ETF inflow data, one can examine BTC monthly futures contracts. In neutral markets, these contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% premium due to their longer settlement period.

要评估专业交易者在现货 ETF 流入数据令人失望后的情绪，可以检查 BTC 月度期货合约。在中性市场中，由于结算周期较长，这些合约的交易价格通常有 5% 至 10% 的溢价。

BTC Futures Premium: A Sign of Optimism

比特币期货溢价：乐观的迹象

Data shows that the annualized BTC futures premium has remained largely unaffected by the net spot ETF outflows. The current 18% premium indicates a willingness among buyers to pay a premium for leveraged long positions, suggesting a positive outlook.

数据显示，年化BTC期货溢价基本未受到现货ETF净流出的影响。目前 18% 的溢价表明买家愿意为杠杆多头头寸支付溢价，表明前景乐观。

Options Market: A Balanced Approach

期权市场：平衡的方法

Examining the Bitcoin options market is crucial to determine if the March rally to $70,000 has increased demand for strategies to hedge against potential price corrections. The skew metric typically exceeds 7% when traders anticipate a price drop, while periods of enthusiasm often see a skew below 7%.

检查比特币期权市场对于确定 3 月份涨至 70,000 美元是否增加了对冲潜在价格调整策略的需求至关重要。当交易者预计价格下跌时，偏差指标通常会超过 7%，而在热情时期，偏差指标通常会低于 7%。

Neutral Skew: A Balanced Sentiment

中性倾斜：平衡的情绪

Since March 13, the BTC options 25% delta skew has remained in a neutral range, indicating a balanced demand for bullish and bearish options strategies. Notably, there were no signs of panic as Bitcoin tested the $62,000 support on March 20.

自3月13日以来，BTC期权25%Delta偏度一直保持在中性区间，表明看涨和看跌期权策略的需求平衡。值得注意的是，当比特币在 3 月 20 日测试 62,000 美元的支撑位时，并没有出现恐慌的迹象。

Conclusion: A Resilient Bitcoin

结论：有弹性的比特币

The indicators from Bitcoin derivatives markets suggest a strong price resilience despite the recent spot ETF outflows. This supports the likelihood that the $70,000 support level is gaining strength, bolstering the view that Bitcoin's bullish momentum is not solely reliant on spot ETF inflows.

比特币衍生品市场的指标表明，尽管近期出现现货 ETF 资金流出，但比特币价格仍具有强劲的弹性。这支持了 70,000 美元支撑位正在增强的可能性，并支持了比特币看涨势头不仅仅依赖于现货 ETF 流入的观点。

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文无意作为投资建议。我们鼓励读者在做出任何投资决定之前进行自己的研究。