現貨比特幣 ETF 對於維持比特幣的上漲趨勢至關重要嗎？

現貨比特幣 ETF 在交易第一週就出現了 8.88 億美元的大幅淨流出，引發了人們對近期漲勢可持續性的質疑。然而，市場行為表明，比特幣的看漲勢頭並不僅僅依賴現貨 ETF 流入，儘管有資金流出，但比特幣仍上漲了 15%。 1.2兆美元支出計畫的批准和聯準會降息的預測已成為積極的催化劑，而比特幣衍生性商品市場仍然樂觀，期貨溢價和選擇權偏差表明看漲和看跌策略的需求平衡。

Are Spot Bitcoin ETFs Essential for Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum?

現貨比特幣 ETF 對比特幣看漲勢頭至關重要嗎？

The inaugural week of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a notable reversal, with a net outflow of $888 million from March 18 to March 22. This stark departure from the previous week's $2.57 billion inflow has cast doubt on the sustainability of Bitcoin's recent surge to $70,000 on March 25.

現貨比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）首周出現顯著逆轉，3月18日至3月22日淨流出8.88億美元。這與前一周25.7億美元的流入形成鮮明對比，引發人們對比特幣市場的懷疑。比特幣最近在 3 月 25 日飆升至 70,000 美元的可持續性。

Institutional Inflows: A Driving Force or a Mere Catalyst?

機構資金流入：驅動力還是催化劑？

Some market participants had attributed Bitcoin's record high of $73,755 on March 14 to institutional inflows via spot ETFs. However, the subsequent 9% gain between March 23 and March 25, coupled with the S&P 500's inability to sustain its all-time high, has raised questions about the necessity of such inflows for Bitcoin's bullish momentum.

一些市場參與者將比特幣 3 月 14 日創下的歷史新高 73,755 美元歸因於機構透過現貨 ETF 流入。然而，隨後 3 月 23 日至 3 月 25 日期間上漲 9%，加上標準普爾 500 指數無法維持其歷史高點，引發了人們對此類資金流入對於比特幣看漲勢頭的必要性的質疑。

A Reality Check for Bitcoin's Bull Run?

比特幣牛市的現實檢驗？

Analyst venturefoundΞr posits that Bitcoin's recent rally may have been a "FOMO" (fear of missing out) surge driven by ETF investors, resulting in a "trapping" of buyers at the peak before the halving. While the 15% gain from March 20 to March 25 warrants caution, Bitcoin's market behavior suggests a degree of resilience beyond ETF inflows.

VentureFoundΞr分析師認為，比特幣近期的上漲可能是ETF投資者推動的「FOMO」（害怕錯過）激增，導致買家在減半前的高峰被「困住」。雖然 3 月 20 日至 3 月 25 日期間 15% 的漲幅值得謹慎，但比特幣的市場行為表明，除了 ETF 流入之外，比特幣還具有一定程度的彈性。

Macroeconomic Catalysts: A Tailwind for Bitcoin?

宏觀經濟催化劑：比特幣的順風車？

The United States' recent approval of a $1.2 trillion spending package on March 23 is seen by some traders as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin. This optimism stems from the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast of three interest rate cuts throughout 2024, which could mitigate concerns about rising government debt and potentially bolster risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

美國最近在 3 月 23 日批准了 1.2 兆美元的支出計劃，一些交易員認為這是比特幣的積極催化劑。這種樂觀情緒源自於聯準會對 2024 年三次降息的預測，這可能會減輕對政府債務上升的擔憂，並可能提振比特幣等風險資產。

A Weakening Dollar: A Boon for Scarce Assets?

美元疲軟：稀缺資產的福音？

The simultaneous rise of scarce assets such as gold, Bitcoin, real estate, and the stock market suggests a weakening U.S. dollar. This devaluation of fiat currencies is prompting investors to seek refuge in alternative assets, regardless of the euro or British pound's performance against the dollar.

黃金、比特幣、房地產和股市等稀缺資產的同時上漲顯示美元走弱。無論歐元或英鎊兌美元的表現如何，法定貨幣的貶值都促使投資者尋求替代資產的避難。

Monetary Expansion: A Double-Edged Sword?

貨幣擴張：一把雙面刃？

Predicting a sustained upward trajectory for Bitcoin based solely on monetary expansion may be premature. However, bears arguing that the U.S. fiscal trajectory will lead to a recession, potentially harming risk-on assets, overlook Bitcoin's impressive 64% year-to-date gain in 2024.

僅根據貨幣擴張來預測比特幣的持續上漲軌跡可能還為時過早。然而，空頭認為美國的財政軌跡將導致經濟衰退，可能損害風險資產，卻忽略了比特幣 2024 年迄今 64% 的驚人漲幅。

Bitcoin Derivatives: A Gauge of Professional Sentiment

比特幣衍生性商品：專業情緒的衡量標準

To assess professional traders' sentiment following the disappointing spot ETF inflow data, one can examine BTC monthly futures contracts. In neutral markets, these contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% premium due to their longer settlement period.

要評估專業交易者在現貨 ETF 流入數據令人失望後的情緒，可以檢查 BTC 月度期貨合約。在中性市場中，由於結算週期較長，這些合約的交易價格通常有 5% 至 10% 的溢價。

BTC Futures Premium: A Sign of Optimism

比特幣期貨溢價：樂觀的跡象

Data shows that the annualized BTC futures premium has remained largely unaffected by the net spot ETF outflows. The current 18% premium indicates a willingness among buyers to pay a premium for leveraged long positions, suggesting a positive outlook.

數據顯示，年化BTC期貨溢價基本上未受到現貨ETF淨流出的影響。目前 18% 的溢價表明買家願意為槓桿多頭頭寸支付溢價，表明前景樂觀。

Options Market: A Balanced Approach

選擇權市場：平衡的方法

Examining the Bitcoin options market is crucial to determine if the March rally to $70,000 has increased demand for strategies to hedge against potential price corrections. The skew metric typically exceeds 7% when traders anticipate a price drop, while periods of enthusiasm often see a skew below 7%.

檢查比特幣選擇權市場對於確定 3 月漲至 70,000 美元是否增加了對沖潛在價格調整策略的需求至關重要。當交易者預期價格下跌時，偏差指標通常會超過 7%，而在熱情時期，偏差指標通常會低於 7%。

Neutral Skew: A Balanced Sentiment

中性傾斜：平衡的情緒

Since March 13, the BTC options 25% delta skew has remained in a neutral range, indicating a balanced demand for bullish and bearish options strategies. Notably, there were no signs of panic as Bitcoin tested the $62,000 support on March 20.

自3月13日以來，BTC選擇權25%Delta偏度一直維持在中性區間，顯示看漲和看跌選擇權策略的需求平衡。值得注意的是，當比特幣在 3 月 20 日測試 62,000 美元的支撐位時，並沒有出現恐慌的跡象。

Conclusion: A Resilient Bitcoin

結論：有彈性的比特幣

The indicators from Bitcoin derivatives markets suggest a strong price resilience despite the recent spot ETF outflows. This supports the likelihood that the $70,000 support level is gaining strength, bolstering the view that Bitcoin's bullish momentum is not solely reliant on spot ETF inflows.

比特幣衍生性商品市場的指標表明，儘管近期出現現貨 ETF 資金流出，但比特幣價格仍具有強勁的彈性。這支持了 70,000 美元支撐位正在增強的可能性，並支持了比特幣看漲勢頭不僅僅依賴現貨 ETF 流入的觀點。

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文無意作為投資建議。我們鼓勵讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行自己的研究。