零流量引发投资者担忧，现货比特币 ETF 陷入困境

Farside Investors 的初步数据显示，4 只新的现货比特币 ETF（Bitwise、Invesco Galaxy、WisdomTree 和 Hashdex）在 4 月 16 日又经历了零流量的一天，而 Grayscale 的 GBTC 和 ARK 21Shares 的 ARKB 则面临资金流出。然而，彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 强调，这是正常的，因为大多数 ETF 在任何一天的流量都为零，并且只有当供需不匹配达到一定阈值时才会出现大量流入或流出。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Exhibit Zero Flows, Raising Concerns Among Investors

现货比特币 ETF 继续呈现零流量，引发投资者担忧

Preliminary data released by Farside Investors has revealed that four newly launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced another day of zero flows on April 16, 2024. These ETFs include Bitwise (BITB), Invesco Galaxy (BTCO), WisdomTree (BTCW), and Hashdex (DEFI).

Farside Investors发布的初步数据显示，四只新推出的现货比特币ETF在2024年4月16日又经历了零流量的一天。这些ETF包括Bitwise (BITB)、Invesco Galaxy (BTCO)、WisdomTree (BTCW) ）和 Hashdex（DEFI）。

In addition, established Bitcoin investment vehicles such as Grayscale's GBTC and ARK 21Shares' ARKB witnessed significant outflows of $79.4 million and $12.9 million, respectively. These negative flows have raised concerns among investors about the short-term prospects of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

此外，Grayscale 的 GBTC 和 ARK 21Shares 的 ARKB 等成熟的比特币投资工具分别出现了 7940 万美元和 1290 万美元的大幅流出。这些负流引起了投资者对现货比特币 ETF 短期前景的担忧。

Experts Explain the Significance of Zero Flows

专家解释零流量的意义

Despite the apprehension expressed by investors, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has emphasized that zero flows in ETFs are a common occurrence. He notes that on any given day, a majority of the 3,500 ETFs traded in the United States have zero flows.

尽管投资者表达了担忧，但彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 强调，ETF 的零流量现象很常见。他指出，在任何一天，在美国交易的 3,500 只 ETF 中，大部分的流量为零。

Seyffart explains that ETFs create and redeem shares in "creation units" when there is a significant imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance must be sufficient to justify the additional costs of tapping into the underlying market.

Seyffart 解释说，当供需严重失衡时，ETF 会创建并赎回“创设单位”中的股票。这种不平衡必须足以证明进入基础市场的额外成本是合理的。

Creation units represent the number of ETF shares that are created or redeemed in a single transaction. The size of these units varies across ETFs. In the case of spot Bitcoin ETFs, creation units typically range from 5,000 to 50,000 shares.

创建单位代表在单笔交易中创建或赎回的 ETF 份额数量。不同 ETF 的这些单位的规模各不相同。就现货比特币 ETF 而言，创建单位通常为 5,000 股至 50,000 股。

"A creation or redemption order will only be executed if the supply and demand imbalance is large enough to warrant the process and if the costs of creating or redeeming shares are lower than hedging and making markets in the traditional manner," Seyffart explains.

塞法特解释说：“只有当供需失衡足够大以保证这一过程，并且创建或赎回股票的成本低于以传统方式对冲和做市的成本时，创建或赎回订单才会被执行。”

Factors Influencing Flows in Spot Bitcoin ETFs

影响现货比特币 ETF 流量的因素

While zero flows are considered normal in the ETF industry, the consistent occurrence of such flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs has puzzled some market observers. Seyffart suggests that minor supply and demand imbalances are typically handled by market makers without triggering the creation or redemption of shares.

虽然零流量在 ETF 行业被认为是正常现象，但现货比特币 ETF 中持续出现的这种流量让一些市场观察人士感到困惑。塞法特认为，轻微的供需失衡通常由做市商处理，不会触发股票的创建或赎回。

However, when these imbalances become sufficiently large, they can lead to significant inflows or outflows of the underlying asset, Bitcoin (BTC). On April 16, the aggregate net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $58 million.

然而，当这些不平衡变得足够大时，可能会导致基础资产比特币（BTC）的大量流入或流出。 4 月 16 日，现货比特币 ETF 净流出总额达 5800 万美元。

Market Outlook for Spot Bitcoin ETFs

现货比特币 ETF 的市场前景

The recent negative flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs coincide with a slight recovery in the price of BTC, which briefly surpassed $64,000 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. However, BTC's price later experienced a pullback, highlighting the volatility that remains in the cryptocurrency market.

最近现货比特币 ETF 的负流与比特币价格小幅回升同时发生，比特币价格在周三亚洲交易时段短暂突破 64,000 美元。然而，比特币的价格随后出现回调，凸显了加密货币市场仍然存在的波动性。

Some analysts believe that the zero flows and outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs may reflect a wait-and-see approach among investors. They point to the recent regulatory scrutiny surrounding cryptocurrencies and the potential for increased competition from other investment products as factors that could impact the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the short term.

一些分析师认为，现货比特币ETF的零流量和零流出可能反映出投资者的观望态度。他们指出，最近围绕加密货币的监管审查以及来自其他投资产品的竞争可能加剧，这些因素可能会在短期内影响现货比特币 ETF 的需求。

Conclusion

结论

The zero flows and outflows observed in spot Bitcoin ETFs have raised questions about their performance and potential for growth. Experts emphasize that these flows are a normal occurrence in the ETF industry, but they also acknowledge that the consistent absence of significant flows in these particular ETFs is noteworthy.

现货比特币 ETF 的零流量和零流出引发了对其表现和增长潜力的质疑。专家强调，这些资金流动在 ETF 行业中是正常现象，但他们也承认，这些特定 ETF 中持续缺乏大量资金流动的情况值得注意。

As the cryptocurrency market continues to navigate regulatory and competitive challenges, the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely remain under scrutiny by investors seeking exposure to the digital asset class.

随着加密货币市场继续应对监管和竞争挑战，现货比特币 ETF 的表现可能仍会受到寻求投资该数字资产类别的投资者的密切关注。