零流量引發投資者擔憂，現貨比特幣 ETF 陷入困境

Farside Investors 的初步數據顯示，4 隻新的現貨比特幣ETF（Bitwise、Invesco Galaxy、WisdomTree 和Hashdex）在4 月16 日又經歷了零流量的一天，而Grayscale 的GBTC 和ARK 21Shares 的ARKB 則面臨資金流出。然而，彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 強調，這是正常的，因為大多數 ETF 在任何一天的流量都為零，並且只有當供需不匹配達到一定閾值時才會出現大量流入或流出。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Exhibit Zero Flows, Raising Concerns Among Investors

現貨比特幣 ETF 持續呈現零流量，引發投資者擔憂

Preliminary data released by Farside Investors has revealed that four newly launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced another day of zero flows on April 16, 2024. These ETFs include Bitwise (BITB), Invesco Galaxy (BTCO), WisdomTree (BTCW), and Hashdex (DEFI).

Farside Investors發布的初步數據顯示，四隻新推出的現貨比特幣ETF在2024年4月16日又經歷了零流量的一天。 ）和Hashdex（DEFI）。

In addition, established Bitcoin investment vehicles such as Grayscale's GBTC and ARK 21Shares' ARKB witnessed significant outflows of $79.4 million and $12.9 million, respectively. These negative flows have raised concerns among investors about the short-term prospects of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

此外，Grayscale 的 GBTC 和 ARK 21Shares 的 ARKB 等成熟的比特幣投資工具分別出現了 7,940 萬美元和 1,290 萬美元的大幅流出。這些負流量引起了投資者對現貨比特幣 ETF 短期前景的擔憂。

Experts Explain the Significance of Zero Flows

專家解釋零流量的意義

Despite the apprehension expressed by investors, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has emphasized that zero flows in ETFs are a common occurrence. He notes that on any given day, a majority of the 3,500 ETFs traded in the United States have zero flows.

儘管投資者表達了擔憂，但彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 強調，ETF 的零流量現像很常見。他指出，在任何一天，在美國交易的 3,500 隻 ETF 中，大部分的流量為零。

Seyffart explains that ETFs create and redeem shares in "creation units" when there is a significant imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance must be sufficient to justify the additional costs of tapping into the underlying market.

Seyffart 解釋說，當供需嚴重失衡時，ETF 會創建並贖回「創設單位」中的股票。這種不平衡必須足以證明進入基礎市場的額外成本是合理的。

Creation units represent the number of ETF shares that are created or redeemed in a single transaction. The size of these units varies across ETFs. In the case of spot Bitcoin ETFs, creation units typically range from 5,000 to 50,000 shares.

創建單位代表在單筆交易中創建或贖回的 ETF 份額數量。不同 ETF 的這些單位的規模各不相同。就現貨比特幣 ETF 而言，創建單位通常為 5,000 股至 50,000 股。

"A creation or redemption order will only be executed if the supply and demand imbalance is large enough to warrant the process and if the costs of creating or redeeming shares are lower than hedging and making markets in the traditional manner," Seyffart explains.

塞法特解釋說：「只有當供需失衡足夠大以保證這一過程，並且創建或贖回股票的成本低於以傳統方式對沖和做市的成本時，創建或贖回訂單才會被執行。 」

Factors Influencing Flows in Spot Bitcoin ETFs

影響現貨比特幣 ETF 流量的因素

While zero flows are considered normal in the ETF industry, the consistent occurrence of such flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs has puzzled some market observers. Seyffart suggests that minor supply and demand imbalances are typically handled by market makers without triggering the creation or redemption of shares.

雖然零流量在 ETF 產業被認為是正常現象，但現貨比特幣 ETF 中持續出現的這種流量讓一些市場觀察家感到困惑。塞法特認為，輕微的供需失衡通常由做市商處理，不會觸發股票的創建或贖回。

However, when these imbalances become sufficiently large, they can lead to significant inflows or outflows of the underlying asset, Bitcoin (BTC). On April 16, the aggregate net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $58 million.

然而，當這些不平衡變得足夠大時，可能會導致基礎資產比特幣（BTC）的大量流入或流出。 4 月 16 日，現貨比特幣 ETF 淨流出總額達 5,800 萬美元。

Market Outlook for Spot Bitcoin ETFs

現貨比特幣 ETF 的市場前景

The recent negative flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs coincide with a slight recovery in the price of BTC, which briefly surpassed $64,000 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. However, BTC's price later experienced a pullback, highlighting the volatility that remains in the cryptocurrency market.

最近現貨比特幣 ETF 的負流量與比特幣價格小幅回升同時發生，比特幣價格在周三亞洲交易時段短暫突破 64,000 美元。然而，比特幣的價格隨後出現回調，凸顯了加密貨幣市場仍然存在的波動性。

Some analysts believe that the zero flows and outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs may reflect a wait-and-see approach among investors. They point to the recent regulatory scrutiny surrounding cryptocurrencies and the potential for increased competition from other investment products as factors that could impact the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the short term.

一些分析師認為，現貨比特幣ETF的零流量和零流出可能反映出投資者的觀望態度。他們指出，最近圍繞加密貨幣的監管審查以及其他投資產品的競爭可能加劇，這些因素可能會在短期內影響現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求。

Conclusion

結論

The zero flows and outflows observed in spot Bitcoin ETFs have raised questions about their performance and potential for growth. Experts emphasize that these flows are a normal occurrence in the ETF industry, but they also acknowledge that the consistent absence of significant flows in these particular ETFs is noteworthy.

現貨比特幣 ETF 的零流量和零流出引發了對其表現和成長潛力的質疑。專家強調，這些資金流動在 ETF 產業中是正常現象，但他們也承認，這些特定 ETF 中持續缺乏大量資金流動的情況值得注意。

As the cryptocurrency market continues to navigate regulatory and competitive challenges, the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely remain under scrutiny by investors seeking exposure to the digital asset class.

隨著加密貨幣市場繼續應對監管和競爭挑戰，現貨比特幣 ETF 的表現可能仍會受到尋求投資該數位資產類別的投資者的密切關注。