短路独角兽

越来越清楚的是，许多代币很可能永远不会回到他们的历史最高点。

Article author: Frugho

文章作者：Frugho

Article translation: Block unicorn

文章翻译：块独角兽

It is becoming increasingly clear that many tokens will most likely never return to their all-time highs. If you want a deeper dive into why I think this, I recommend reading my previous article. It explores my vision for the increasingly fast-moving market, and the dilution we are seeing, which leads to what I call a “low available liquidity, high total number of projects” trajectory.

越来越清楚的是，许多代币很可能永远不会回到他们的历史最高点。如果您想更深入地了解为什么我认为这一点，建议您阅读我的上一篇文章。它探讨了我对日益快速发展的市场的愿景，以及我们看到的稀释度，这导致了我所说的“可用流动性低，项目总数高”轨迹。

This is especially evident in ecosystems like Solana, which often feature new tokens that are hyped but have weak fundamentals. A not-so-meme-y saying in crypto, “You can’t hold a coin for more than a few hours,” is becoming more and more true. The dopamine rush of seeing a token pump is directly aligned with the direction of the market. The possibility of a 1000x return, like a slot machine jackpot, is what draws people to these pumps. This endless recycling of liquidity is necessary to keep new tokens being launched and witnessing new 1000x gains. It’s the tantalizing lure of being able to retire with a single trade.

这在诸如Solana之类的生态系统中尤其明显，这些生态系统通常具有炒作但基本面较弱的新令牌。在Crypto中，“您不能持有硬币超过几个小时”中的一个不太熟悉的话，正变得越来越真实。看到令牌泵的多巴胺急速与市场方向直接一致。 1000倍返回的可能性，例如老虎机大奖，是吸引人们进入这些泵的原因。对于保持新的代币的推出并见证了新的1000倍增益，需要进行无尽的流动性回收利用。这是能够通过一项交易退休的诱人诱惑。

However, this cycle has also left behind many tokens that seem destined to fall indefinitely, just like many tokens in past cycles. These tokens are particularly interesting because many are destined to lose value even if the overall market trend is upward. This is due to the fragility of their concepts, their control by insiders who know how to take profits and sell at the right moment, and their reliance on narratives that lack long-term substance. These factors push them to unsustainable valuations, making their eventual collapse almost inevitable.

但是，这个周期也留下了许多似乎无限期地落下的令牌，就像过去周期中的许多令牌一样。这些代币特别有趣，因为即使整体市场趋势向上，许多代币注定要失去价值。这是由于他们的概念的脆弱性，他们知道如何在适当时刻获得利润和出售的内部人的控制以及他们对缺乏长期实质的叙述的依赖。这些因素促使他们获得了不可持续的估值，使他们最终的崩溃几乎不可避免。

Window of short selling opportunity

卖空机会的窗户

Indeed, it may feel a little late to say this now. There have been many opportunities to short these types of tokens. However, opportunities like this will undoubtedly arise again. New projects, similar to the ones that have seen explosive but unsustainable growth in past cycles, will emerge and reach ridiculous valuations. Think of examples like GOAT, CHILLGUY, MOODENG, PNUT, or BRETT, among a long list of others. These tokens can quickly accumulate market valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

的确，现在说这可能有点晚了。有很多机会可以简短这些类型的令牌。但是，这样的机会无疑会再次出现。新项目类似于过去的周期中爆炸性但不可持续的增长的项目，它将出现并获得荒谬的估值。想一想山羊，寒意，穆斯登，pnut或布雷特之类的例子。这些令牌可以迅速积累数亿甚至数十亿美元的市场估值。

While these valuations may seem justified in the short term due to attention and hype, it is almost certain that these tokens will not be able to sustain such levels within a few months. Either a major market correction, perhaps during another bear market, or the heat of their initial hype dies down, will bring them back down.

尽管由于注意力和炒作，这些估值在短期内似乎是合理的，但几乎可以肯定的是，这些令牌将无法在几个月内维持此类水平。可能是在另一个熊市上进行的主要市场纠正，或者最初的炒作的热量会使他们恢复原状。

You might think that the biggest challenge in shorting these tokens is timing the top. Without precise timing, a strategy can easily backfire, especially when leverage is involved. For example, imagine shorting a token with a market cap of $1 billion. If it rises to $1.5 billion or $2 billion, an increase of 50% or 100%, your position could be severely damaged. The main issue here is leverage. It’s not as simple as opening a short and waiting; even if your timing is not perfect, you must avoid playing a dangerous game because you will be liquidated if the price moves against you. For this reason, carefully considering these risks and the specific token you are targeting will make it even clearer that such inflated valuations are unsustainable in the long run.

您可能会认为，缩短这些代币的最大挑战是将最高的时间计时。没有精确的时机，策略很容易适得其反，尤其是在涉及杠杆率时。例如，想象一下，在市值为10亿美元的市值的情况下，打击了一个令牌。如果增加到15亿美元或20亿美元，增加了50％或100％，您的职位可能会严重损害。这里的主要问题是杠杆。它不像打开简短的等待那样简单。即使您的时机并不完美，您也必须避免玩危险的游戏，因为如果价格转移到您身边，您将被清算。因此，仔细考虑这些风险以及您所针对的特定令牌将使从长远来看这种膨胀的估值是不可持续的。

I often follow the words and deeds of successful people in this space, which is why I want to highlight GCR’s famous short of $LUNA. On March 17th, @GiganticRebirth hinted at his intention to short Luna. Let’s assume he had already started shorting a few weeks ago. Although Luna continued to climb, he firmly believed that the up party would eventually end. At the top, Luna was far above the “initial” price of the short, but GCR stuck to his point. He added more margin, increased his short position, and stayed the course. Within a few months, Luna completely collapsed. This case shows how a strong thesis coupled with disciplined execution can overcome the inherent challenges of timing tops.

我经常遵循这个领域成功人士的单词和行为，这就是为什么我想突出GCR著名的$ Luna。 3月17日，@giganticrebirth暗示了他打算对Short Luna。假设他已经几周前已经开始短路了。尽管露娜（Luna）继续攀升，但他坚信UP党最终将结束。在顶部，露娜（Luna）远远超过了短头的“初始”价格，但GCR坚持了他的观点。他增加了更多的利润，提高了他的短缺，并保持了课程。在几个月内，露娜完全崩溃了。该案例表明，强有力的论文与纪律处决如何克服定时顶部的固有挑战。

While it may be rare to find another market-shaking token like Luna, the same principles apply to meme coins and tokens driven by fast-moving narratives. Platforms like Hyperliquid, which quickly list many highly speculative tokens, provide a great opportunity for such strategies on-chain. The logic is simple: every token in your portfolio will not collapse immediately, but the overall probability is heavily tilted towards a significant decline for a series of short positions.

虽然很少能找到另一个像Luna这样的市场震惊的代币，但同样的原理也适用于Meme硬币和由快速移动的叙述驱动的代币。诸如Hyproliquid之类的平台很快列出了许多高度投机的代币，它为此类链上的策略提供了绝佳的机会。逻辑很简单：您的投资组合中的每个令牌都不会立即崩溃，但是总体概率倾向于一系列短职位的大幅下降。

Shorting meme coins or other narrative-driven tokens isn’t just a hedge against the broader market. It’s also a highly effective strategy for capitalizing on their inevitable declines. Narratives may come and go in crypto, but the structural weaknesses of many tokens mean their long-term prospects are decidedly bleak.

Shorting Meme硬币或其他叙事驱动的代币不仅仅是针对更广阔市场的对冲。这也是利用不可避免的下降的高效策略。叙事可能会来到加密货币，但是许多令牌的结构弱点意味着他们的长期前景绝对是黯淡的。

Implementation complexity, but +EV

实施复杂性，但是 +ev

Although this strategy looks simple on paper, the reality is much more complicated. Managing these positions requires deep knowledge of risk management, the ability

尽管这种策略在纸上看起来很简单，但现实要复杂得多。管理这些职位需要深入的风险管理知识，能力