短路獨角獸

越來越清楚的是，許多代幣很可能永遠不會回到他們的歷史最高點。

Article author: Frugho

文章作者：Frugho

Article translation: Block unicorn

文章翻譯：塊獨角獸

It is becoming increasingly clear that many tokens will most likely never return to their all-time highs. If you want a deeper dive into why I think this, I recommend reading my previous article. It explores my vision for the increasingly fast-moving market, and the dilution we are seeing, which leads to what I call a “low available liquidity, high total number of projects” trajectory.

越來越清楚的是，許多代幣很可能永遠不會回到他們的歷史最高點。如果您想更深入地了解為什麼我認為這一點，建議您閱讀我的上一篇文章。它探討了我對日益快速發展的市場的願景，以及我們看到的稀釋度，這導致了我所說的“可用流動性低，項目總數高”軌跡。

This is especially evident in ecosystems like Solana, which often feature new tokens that are hyped but have weak fundamentals. A not-so-meme-y saying in crypto, “You can’t hold a coin for more than a few hours,” is becoming more and more true. The dopamine rush of seeing a token pump is directly aligned with the direction of the market. The possibility of a 1000x return, like a slot machine jackpot, is what draws people to these pumps. This endless recycling of liquidity is necessary to keep new tokens being launched and witnessing new 1000x gains. It’s the tantalizing lure of being able to retire with a single trade.

這在諸如Solana之類的生態系統中尤其明顯，這些生態系統通常具有炒作但基本面較弱的新令牌。在Crypto中，“您不能持有硬幣超過幾個小時”中的一個不太熟悉的話，正變得越來越真實。看到令牌泵的多巴胺急速與市場方向直接一致。 1000倍返回的可能性，例如老虎機大獎，是吸引人們進入這些泵的原因。對於保持新的代幣的推出並見證了新的1000倍增益，需要進行無盡的流動性回收利用。這是能夠通過一項交易退休的誘人誘惑。

However, this cycle has also left behind many tokens that seem destined to fall indefinitely, just like many tokens in past cycles. These tokens are particularly interesting because many are destined to lose value even if the overall market trend is upward. This is due to the fragility of their concepts, their control by insiders who know how to take profits and sell at the right moment, and their reliance on narratives that lack long-term substance. These factors push them to unsustainable valuations, making their eventual collapse almost inevitable.

但是，這個週期也留下了許多似乎無限期地落下的令牌，就像過去週期中的許多令牌一樣。這些代幣特別有趣，因為即使整體市場趨勢向上，許多代幣注定要失去價值。這是由於他們的概念的脆弱性，他們知道如何在適當時刻獲得利潤和出售的內部人的控制以及他們對缺乏長期實質的敘述的依賴。這些因素促使他們獲得了不可持續的估值，使他們最終的崩潰幾乎不可避免。

Window of short selling opportunity

賣空機會的窗戶

Indeed, it may feel a little late to say this now. There have been many opportunities to short these types of tokens. However, opportunities like this will undoubtedly arise again. New projects, similar to the ones that have seen explosive but unsustainable growth in past cycles, will emerge and reach ridiculous valuations. Think of examples like GOAT, CHILLGUY, MOODENG, PNUT, or BRETT, among a long list of others. These tokens can quickly accumulate market valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

的確，現在說這可能有點晚了。有很多機會可以簡短這些類型的令牌。但是，這樣的機會無疑會再次出現。新項目類似於過去的周期中爆炸性但不可持續的增長的項目，它將出現並獲得荒謬的估值。想一想山羊，寒意，穆斯登，pnut或布雷特之類的例子。這些令牌可以迅速積累數億甚至數十億美元的市場估值。

While these valuations may seem justified in the short term due to attention and hype, it is almost certain that these tokens will not be able to sustain such levels within a few months. Either a major market correction, perhaps during another bear market, or the heat of their initial hype dies down, will bring them back down.

儘管由於注意力和炒作，這些估值在短期內似乎是合理的，但幾乎可以肯定的是，這些令牌將無法在幾個月內維持此類水平。可能是在另一個熊市上進行的主要市場糾正，或者最初的炒作的熱量會使他們恢復原狀。

You might think that the biggest challenge in shorting these tokens is timing the top. Without precise timing, a strategy can easily backfire, especially when leverage is involved. For example, imagine shorting a token with a market cap of $1 billion. If it rises to $1.5 billion or $2 billion, an increase of 50% or 100%, your position could be severely damaged. The main issue here is leverage. It’s not as simple as opening a short and waiting; even if your timing is not perfect, you must avoid playing a dangerous game because you will be liquidated if the price moves against you. For this reason, carefully considering these risks and the specific token you are targeting will make it even clearer that such inflated valuations are unsustainable in the long run.

您可能會認為，縮短這些代幣的最大挑戰是將最高的時間計時。沒有精確的時機，策略很容易適得其反，尤其是在涉及槓桿率時。例如，想像一下，在市值為10億美元的市值的情況下，打擊了一個令牌。如果增加到15億美元或20億美元，增加了50％或100％，您的職位可能會嚴重損害。這裡的主要問題是槓桿。它不像打開簡短的等待那樣簡單。即使您的時機並不完美，您也必須避免玩危險的遊戲，因為如果價格轉移到您身邊，您將被清算。因此，仔細考慮這些風險以及您所針對的特定令牌將使從長遠來看這種膨脹的估值是不可持續的。

I often follow the words and deeds of successful people in this space, which is why I want to highlight GCR’s famous short of $LUNA. On March 17th, @GiganticRebirth hinted at his intention to short Luna. Let’s assume he had already started shorting a few weeks ago. Although Luna continued to climb, he firmly believed that the up party would eventually end. At the top, Luna was far above the “initial” price of the short, but GCR stuck to his point. He added more margin, increased his short position, and stayed the course. Within a few months, Luna completely collapsed. This case shows how a strong thesis coupled with disciplined execution can overcome the inherent challenges of timing tops.

我經常遵循這個領域成功人士的單詞和行為，這就是為什麼我想突出GCR著名的$ Luna。 3月17日，@giganticrebirth暗示了他打算對Short Luna。假設他已經幾週前已經開始短路了。儘管露娜（Luna）繼續攀升，但他堅信UP黨最終將結束。在頂部，露娜（Luna）遠遠超過了短頭的“初始”價格，但GCR堅持了他的觀點。他增加了更多的利潤，提高了他的短缺，並保持了課程。在幾個月內，露娜完全崩潰了。該案例表明，強有力的論文與紀律處決如何克服定時頂部的固有挑戰。

While it may be rare to find another market-shaking token like Luna, the same principles apply to meme coins and tokens driven by fast-moving narratives. Platforms like Hyperliquid, which quickly list many highly speculative tokens, provide a great opportunity for such strategies on-chain. The logic is simple: every token in your portfolio will not collapse immediately, but the overall probability is heavily tilted towards a significant decline for a series of short positions.

雖然很少能找到另一個像Luna這樣的市場震驚的代幣，但同樣的原理也適用於Meme硬幣和由快速移動的敘述驅動的代幣。諸如Hyproliquid之類的平台很快列出了許多高度投機的代幣，它為此類鏈上的策略提供了絕佳的機會。邏輯很簡單：您的投資組合中的每個令牌都不會立即崩潰，但是總體概率傾向於一系列短職位的大幅下降。

Shorting meme coins or other narrative-driven tokens isn’t just a hedge against the broader market. It’s also a highly effective strategy for capitalizing on their inevitable declines. Narratives may come and go in crypto, but the structural weaknesses of many tokens mean their long-term prospects are decidedly bleak.

Shorting Meme硬幣或其他敘事驅動的代幣不僅僅是針對更廣闊市場的對沖。這也是利用不可避免的下降的高效策略。敘事可能會來到加密貨幣，但是許多令牌的結構弱點意味著他們的長期前景絕對是黯淡的。

Implementation complexity, but +EV

實施複雜性，但是 +ev

Although this strategy looks simple on paper, the reality is much more complicated. Managing these positions requires deep knowledge of risk management, the ability

儘管這種策略在紙上看起來很簡單，但現實要復雜得多。管理這些職位需要深入的風險管理知識，能力