理智的人投资加密货币指南

尽管比特币重复出现崩溃，但其地板仍在上升。泡沫的每个最近一次放气都使地板更高一些。

Despite Bitcoin’s repeated and spectacular crashes, its floor keeps rising. Each recent deflation of a bubble has reset that floor a little higher. Most recently, recession fears have undercut Trump-fueled exuberance and driven Bitcoin down from its six-figure highs—but as of mid-March, it was still well above $80,000.

尽管比特币重复出现崩溃，但其地板仍在上升。泡沫的每个最近一次放气都使地板更高一些。最近，经济衰退的恐惧削弱了特朗普繁殖的旺盛，并从六位数的高点开始了比特币，但截至3月中旬，它仍高于80,000美元。

So how should the casual investor navigate all this? Is there a rational way to get exposure to the upside without losing one’s shirt to the inescapable volatility?

那么，随便投资者应该如何浏览这一切呢？是否有合理的方法可以在不损失不可避免的波动性的情况下接触上升空间？

“I get this question all the time,” says David Pakman, a partner at the venture capital firm CoinFund. “What I would suggest is a blue-chip strategy.”

风险投资公司CoinFund的合伙人David Pakman说：“我一直都有这个问题。” “我建议的是蓝芯片策略。”

Pakman, who did long stints at Apple and VC firm Venrock, goes on to explain blue chips in the crypto context: “What I would tell people is to create a portfolio of 60% Bitcoin, 10% or 15% Ethereum, and then put the rest in four or five other blue chips like Solana, Uniswap, Aave, or Compound.”

Pakman在Apple和VC公司Venrock上做了很长一段时间，他继续在加密货币的情况下解释蓝芯片：“我要告诉人们的是创建60％比特币，10％或15％以太坊的投资组合，然后将其余的四个或五个其他五个或五个其他蓝芯片，例如solana，solana，unisewap，unisewap，avap，avap，avev，avap，avap，avap，avap，avel或fimpoind。”

To understand how a crypto asset might count as a blue chip, it’s helpful to understand that every blockchain—like every company—comes with a narrative that explains why it is valuable and will likely remain so.

要了解加密资产如何算作蓝色芯片，了解每个区块链（例如每个公司）都与叙述有关，这解释了为什么它很有价值，并且可能会如此。

In the case of Bitcoin, the narrative is intuitive and easy to explain. The original cryptocurrency is a store of value for long-term investors—“HODLers” in crypto parlance—who are confident that the worth of Bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million coins, won’t be affected by spendthrift governments or money-printing central banks. That’s similar to the role gold plays in some portfolios. Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” has only grown as more companies and even nation-states have added it to their balance sheets. The U.S. became the latest of these when President Trump announced the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

就比特币而言，叙述是直观且易于解释的。最初的加密货币是长期投资者的价值存储（加密货币的“霍德尔”），他们有信心的是，比特币的价值（其供应量为2100万个硬币）不会受到支出品牌政府或货币销售中央银行的影响。这类似于黄金在某些投资组合中所扮演的角色。比特币作为“数字黄金”的地位只会随着越来越多的公司甚至民族国家的资产负债表添加到资产负债表中而增长。当特朗普总统宣布创建战略性比特币储备时，美国成为了最新的。

As for Ethereum, in narrative terms, it’s a versatile, globally accessible computer that lets users carry out a wide range of tasks such as supply-chain tracking and title registration using so-called smart contracts. Solana is billed as a newer, faster Ethereum. Uniswap and Aave, meanwhile, are leaders in decentralized finance, or DeFi, which describes a sophisticated technology for autonomous trading. In other words, these currencies are linked to blockchains that power value-generating, legitimate business activities, and the more broadly useful they become, the more their value should increase.

至于以太坊，从叙述性的角度来看，这是一款通用的全球访问计算机，可以使用所谓的智能合约执行各种任务，例如供应链跟踪和标题注册。 Solana被称为更新，更快的以太坊。与此同时，Uniswap和Aave是分散财务或Defi的领导者，它描述了一种自主交易的复杂技术。换句话说，这些货币与能力价值产生的区块链有关，合法的商业活动以及它们变得越广泛的有用，其价值就会增加。

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Narratives, of course, should hardly be the only criteria for investing—as burned shareholders in fraudulent enterprises like Theranos or Enron will be quick to tell you. Even the most vapid of blockchain projects has legions of self-interested boosters who use social media, podcasts, and YouTube to cheer on worthless coins.

当然，叙事几乎不应该成为投资的唯一标准，就像欺诈性企业中的被烧毁的股东一样，诸如Theranos或安然之类的企业将很快告诉您。即使是最具厌恶的区块链项目，也有大量的自我利益助推器，他们使用社交媒体，播客和YouTube为毫无价值的硬币加油。

Before buying, it’s best to spend time reading about why a given cryptocurrency was invented and whether it is achieving what it set out to do. It’s especially useful to consider how much of a coin’s supply is controlled by insiders—often, consultants or marketers who helped launch the coin—who might cash in and dump it on the market if the price rises; and, on the positive side, to see if a blockchain has an active community of developers who are adding technical contributions.

在购买之前，最好花时间阅读为什么要发明给定的加密货币以及它是否实现目标的原因。考虑到有助于推出硬币的顾问或营销人员控制硬币的供应多少，如果价格上涨，他们可能会兑现并将其转储给市场，这一点尤其有用。而且，从积极的一面来看，要看看区块链是否有一个积极的开发人员社区，他们正在增加技术贡献。

There is another tactic buyers can take from the book of traditional investing, one that reduces exposure to price volatility: Purchase several small sums over a period of time, and be prepared to hold over a long horizon. In Pakman’s words: “Dollar-cost average for three months, then don’t touch it for five years.”

购买者可以从传统投资书中获得另一种策略买家，这会降低价格波动的曝光率：在一段时间内购买几笔小额款项，并准备在漫长的地平线上持有。用帕克曼的话说：“三个月的美元平均成本，然后五年不要碰到它。”

Finally, casual investors will find it much easier to purchase cryptocurrency now that large asset managers like BlackRock offer shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the form of exchange-traded funds available on conventional brokerage platforms.

最后，偶然的投资者将发现购买加密货币现在会更容易，因为贝莱德（BlackRock）这样的大型资产经理以在常规经纪平台上提供的交易所交易所资金的形式提供了比特币和以太坊的股票。

Buying crypto in the form of an ETF comes with an annual management fee, albeit a modest one, that investors won’t encounter if they purchase crypto directly through a platform like Coinbase or Robinhood. The bottom line is that adding some crypto to one’s portfolio still isn't for the faint of heart—but it doesn’t have to feel reckless.

以ETF的形式购买加密货币，尽管投资者直接通过Coinbase或Robinhood等平台购买加密货币，但他们将不会遇到年度管理费。最重要的是，在一个人的投资组合中添加一些加密货币仍然不是胆小的，但不必感到鲁ck。

This article appears in the April/May 2025 issue of Fortune with the headline "The sane person's guide to investing in cryptocurrency."

本文发表于2025年4月/5月的《财富》一期，标题是“《加密货币》投资的理智指南。”

Memecoins: A cultural force, and a terrible investment

纪念物：一种文化力量和可怕的投资

When Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted a picture from his wedding in October, crypto users rushed to mark the occasion—by creating rival cryptocurrencies dedicated to a fluffy white dog that appeared in the pic with the bride and groom. One faction, declaring the pooch’s name was Russell, launched a token of that name, flooding social media with memes of the Akita Inu. No, no, insisted another faction: The dog’s name was Hashbrown, they said, posting a stream of similar memes.

当Coinbase首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗（Brian Armstrong）在10月份发布了一张婚礼上的照片时，加密用户急忙纪念这一场合 - 创建了竞争对手的加密货币，专门用于与新娘和新郎一起出现在图片中的蓬松的白狗。一个派系宣布狗的名字叫罗素，他的名字构成了象征，以akita inu的模因淹没了社交媒体。不，不，坚持另一个派系：他们说，狗的名字是哈希布朗，上面写着类似的模因。