理智的人投資加密貨幣指南

儘管比特幣重複出現崩潰，但其地板仍在上升。泡沫的每個最近一次放氣都使地板更高一些。

Despite Bitcoin’s repeated and spectacular crashes, its floor keeps rising. Each recent deflation of a bubble has reset that floor a little higher. Most recently, recession fears have undercut Trump-fueled exuberance and driven Bitcoin down from its six-figure highs—but as of mid-March, it was still well above $80,000.

儘管比特幣重複出現崩潰，但其地板仍在上升。泡沫的每個最近一次放氣都使地板更高一些。最近，經濟衰退的恐懼削弱了特朗普繁殖的旺盛，並從六位數的高點開始了比特幣，但截至3月中旬，它仍高於80,000美元。

So how should the casual investor navigate all this? Is there a rational way to get exposure to the upside without losing one’s shirt to the inescapable volatility?

那麼，隨便投資者應該如何瀏覽這一切呢？是否有合理的方法可以在不損失不可避免的波動性的情況下接觸上升空間？

“I get this question all the time,” says David Pakman, a partner at the venture capital firm CoinFund. “What I would suggest is a blue-chip strategy.”

風險投資公司CoinFund的合夥人David Pakman說：“我一直都有這個問題。” “我建議的是藍芯片策略。”

Pakman, who did long stints at Apple and VC firm Venrock, goes on to explain blue chips in the crypto context: “What I would tell people is to create a portfolio of 60% Bitcoin, 10% or 15% Ethereum, and then put the rest in four or five other blue chips like Solana, Uniswap, Aave, or Compound.”

Pakman在Apple和VC公司Venrock上做了很長一段時間，他繼續在加密貨幣的情況下解釋藍芯片：“我要告訴人們的是創建60％比特幣，10％或15％以太坊的投資組合，然後將其餘的四個或五個其他五個或五個其他藍芯片，例如solana，solana，unisewap，unisewap，avap，avap，avev，avap，avap，avap，avap，avel或fimpoind。”

To understand how a crypto asset might count as a blue chip, it’s helpful to understand that every blockchain—like every company—comes with a narrative that explains why it is valuable and will likely remain so.

要了解加密資產如何算作藍色芯片，了解每個區塊鏈（例如每個公司）都與敘述有關，這解釋了為什麼它很有價值，並且可能會如此。

In the case of Bitcoin, the narrative is intuitive and easy to explain. The original cryptocurrency is a store of value for long-term investors—“HODLers” in crypto parlance—who are confident that the worth of Bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million coins, won’t be affected by spendthrift governments or money-printing central banks. That’s similar to the role gold plays in some portfolios. Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” has only grown as more companies and even nation-states have added it to their balance sheets. The U.S. became the latest of these when President Trump announced the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

就比特幣而言，敘述是直觀且易於解釋的。最初的加密貨幣是長期投資者的價值存儲（加密貨幣的“霍德爾”），他們有信心的是，比特幣的價值（其供應量為2100萬個硬幣）不會受到支出品牌政府或貨幣銷售中央銀行的影響。這類似於黃金在某些投資組合中所扮演的角色。比特幣作為“數字黃金”的地位只會隨著越來越多的公司甚至民族國家的資產負債表添加到資產負債表中而增長。當特朗普總統宣布創建戰略性比特幣儲備時，美國成為了最新的。

As for Ethereum, in narrative terms, it’s a versatile, globally accessible computer that lets users carry out a wide range of tasks such as supply-chain tracking and title registration using so-called smart contracts. Solana is billed as a newer, faster Ethereum. Uniswap and Aave, meanwhile, are leaders in decentralized finance, or DeFi, which describes a sophisticated technology for autonomous trading. In other words, these currencies are linked to blockchains that power value-generating, legitimate business activities, and the more broadly useful they become, the more their value should increase.

至於以太坊，從敘述性的角度來看，這是一款通用的全球訪問計算機，可以使用所謂的智能合約執行各種任務，例如供應鏈跟踪和標題註冊。 Solana被稱為更新，更快的以太坊。與此同時，Uniswap和Aave是分散財務或Defi的領導者，它描述了一種自主交易的複雜技術。換句話說，這些貨幣與能力價值產生的區塊鏈有關，合法的商業活動以及它們變得越廣泛的有用，其價值就會增加。

866%

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Narratives, of course, should hardly be the only criteria for investing—as burned shareholders in fraudulent enterprises like Theranos or Enron will be quick to tell you. Even the most vapid of blockchain projects has legions of self-interested boosters who use social media, podcasts, and YouTube to cheer on worthless coins.

當然，敘事幾乎不應該成為投資的唯一標準，就像欺詐性企業中的被燒毀的股東一樣，諸如Theranos或安然之類的企業將很快告訴您。即使是最具厭惡的區塊鏈項目，也有大量的自我利益助推器，他們使用社交媒體，播客和YouTube為毫無價值的硬幣加油。

Before buying, it’s best to spend time reading about why a given cryptocurrency was invented and whether it is achieving what it set out to do. It’s especially useful to consider how much of a coin’s supply is controlled by insiders—often, consultants or marketers who helped launch the coin—who might cash in and dump it on the market if the price rises; and, on the positive side, to see if a blockchain has an active community of developers who are adding technical contributions.

在購買之前，最好花時間閱讀為什麼要發明給定的加密貨幣以及它是否實現目標的原因。考慮到有助於推出硬幣的顧問或營銷人員控制硬幣的供應多少，如果價格上漲，他們可能會兌現並將其轉儲給市場，這一點尤其有用。而且，從積極的一面來看，要看看區塊鍊是否有一個積極的開發人員社區，他們正在增加技術貢獻。

There is another tactic buyers can take from the book of traditional investing, one that reduces exposure to price volatility: Purchase several small sums over a period of time, and be prepared to hold over a long horizon. In Pakman’s words: “Dollar-cost average for three months, then don’t touch it for five years.”

購買者可以從傳統投資書中獲得另一種策略買家，這會降低價格波動的曝光率：在一段時間內購買幾筆小額款項，並準備在漫長的地平線上持有。用帕克曼的話說：“三個月的美元平均成本，然後五年不要碰到它。”

Finally, casual investors will find it much easier to purchase cryptocurrency now that large asset managers like BlackRock offer shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the form of exchange-traded funds available on conventional brokerage platforms.

最後，偶然的投資者將發現購買加密貨幣現在會更容易，因為貝萊德（BlackRock）這樣的大型資產經理以在常規經紀平台上提供的交易所交易所資金的形式提供了比特幣和以太坊的股票。

Buying crypto in the form of an ETF comes with an annual management fee, albeit a modest one, that investors won’t encounter if they purchase crypto directly through a platform like Coinbase or Robinhood. The bottom line is that adding some crypto to one’s portfolio still isn't for the faint of heart—but it doesn’t have to feel reckless.

以ETF的形式購買加密貨幣，儘管投資者直接通過Coinbase或Robinhood等平台購買加密貨幣，但他們將不會遇到年度管理費。最重要的是，在一個人的投資組合中添加一些加密貨幣仍然不是膽小的，但不必感到魯ck。

This article appears in the April/May 2025 issue of Fortune with the headline "The sane person's guide to investing in cryptocurrency."

本文發表於2025年4月/5月的《財富》一期，標題是“《加密貨幣》投資的理智指南。”

Memecoins: A cultural force, and a terrible investment

紀念物：一種文化力量和可怕的投資

When Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted a picture from his wedding in October, crypto users rushed to mark the occasion—by creating rival cryptocurrencies dedicated to a fluffy white dog that appeared in the pic with the bride and groom. One faction, declaring the pooch’s name was Russell, launched a token of that name, flooding social media with memes of the Akita Inu. No, no, insisted another faction: The dog’s name was Hashbrown, they said, posting a stream of similar memes.

當Coinbase首席執行官布萊恩·阿姆斯特朗（Brian Armstrong）在10月份發布了一張婚禮上的照片時，加密用戶急忙紀念這一場合 - 創建了競爭對手的加密貨幣，專門用於與新娘和新郎一起出現在圖片中的蓬鬆的白狗。一個派系宣布狗的名字叫羅素，他的名字構成了象徵，以akita inu的模因淹沒了社交媒體。不，不，堅持另一個派系：他們說，狗的名字是哈希布朗，上面寫著類似的模因。