美国国债收益率上升可能给 2025 年经济带来麻烦

随着美国 2024 年大选临近，经济指标预示着未来将出现动荡

As the United States approaches the 2024 election, key economic indicators are signaling potential turbulence ahead. One notable trend that has garnered attention among financial analysts is the "bear steepening" in the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

随着美国 2024 年大选临近，关键经济指标预示着未来可能出现动荡。引起金融分析师关注的一个显着趋势是美国国债收益率曲线的“熊市陡峭化”。

The yield curve visually depicts the yields on U.S. Treasury securities across varying maturities, typically ranging from three months to 30 years. Traditionally, the yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher yields for longer-term bonds. This reflects the fact that investors generally demand a higher return for committing their funds over an extended period, especially considering the potential risks involved.

收益率曲线直观地描绘了不同期限（通常从三个月到三十年）的美国国债收益率。传统上，收益率曲线向上倾斜，表明长期债券的收益率较高。这反映了这样一个事实，即投资者通常要求在较长时间内投入资金以获得更高的回报，特别是考虑到所涉及的潜在风险。

However, for more than two years now, the yield curve has been largely inverted, a scenario in which short-term yields surpass those of long-term bonds. This particular configuration has historically served as a predictor of an impending recession. In recent months, this inversion has gradually reversed, leading to a steepening of the yield curve.

然而，两年多来，收益率曲线基本倒挂，出现短期收益率超过长期债券的情况。这种特殊的配置历来被视为即将到来的经济衰退的预测指标。近几个月来，这种倒挂逐渐逆转，导致收益率曲线陡峭。

This steepening occurs when long-term yields rise faster than short-term ones. While a steepening yield curve is typically viewed as a favorable economic sign, the recent trend has been particularly sharp in the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, whose yields are up by 2.41% and 2.33%, respectively.

当长期收益率上升快于短期收益率时，就会出现这种陡峭化。虽然收益率曲线陡峭通常被视为有利的经济信号，但最近 10 年期和 30 年期国债的趋势尤其明显，其收益率分别上涨了 2.41% 和 2.33%。

A bear steepening is a specific type of steepening characterized by rising yields across the board, but with longer-term bonds climbing more aggressively than short-term ones. This often reflects market expectations of higher inflation and possibly greater government borrowing—both of which tend to push yields up on longer maturities. It serves as a warning signal that market participants anticipate potential economic struggles, even a deep recession.

熊市陡峭化是一种特殊类型的陡峭化，其特征是收益率全面上升，但长期债券的上涨速度比短期债券更为激进。这通常反映了市场对通胀上升和政府借贷可能增加的预期——这两者往往会推高期限较长的收益率。它是一个警告信号，表明市场参与者预计将出现潜在的经济困境，甚至严重衰退。

The recent steepening in the yield curve has indeed raised concerns among some economists and investors, especially in light of the fact that an inverted yield curve has preceded every major American recession, including the Great Depression. This period of inversion, paired with the subsequent steepening, often signals the economy's transition from a recessionary warning to a potential downturn.

最近收益率曲线的陡峭确实引起了一些经济学家和投资者的担忧，特别是考虑到美国每次重大经济衰退（包括大萧条）之前都会出现收益率曲线倒挂。这一时期的倒挂，加上随后的陡峭，通常标志着经济从衰退警告过渡到潜在的低迷。

In this case, the bear steepening in the yield curve aligns with rising inflation fears and market anxieties over a possible pivot by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts if the economy weakens further. This shift in monetary policy could further complicate the economic outlook.

在这种情况下，收益率曲线的熊市陡峭化与通胀担忧加剧以及市场对经济进一步疲软时美联储可能转向降息的焦虑是一致的。货币政策的这种转变可能会使经济前景进一步复杂化。

Moreover, the recent steepening in the yield curve is also being compounded by a tendency among investors known as risk aversion. This behavior typically prompts investors to shift their portfolios towards safer assets during periods of economic uncertainty.

此外，投资者中一种被称为风险厌恶的趋势也加剧了近期收益率曲线的陡峭化。这种行为通常会促使投资者在经济不确定时期将其投资组合转向更安全的资产。

One manifestation of this risk aversion is the ongoing surge in bond purchases, as investors seek the relative stability offered by fixed-income securities. Another trend that reflects this aversion to risk is the increasing investment in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as digital assets have experienced a renewed surge in popularity among retail investors.

这种风险厌恶的表现之一是债券购买量持续激增，因为投资者寻求固定收益证券提供的相对稳定性。反映这种风险厌恶情绪的另一个趋势是对比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的投资不断增加，因为数字资产在散户投资者中再次受到欢迎。

These trends underscore a growing desire among investors to secure value amid the current economic volatility, which could have broader implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets in the coming months.

这些趋势凸显出投资者在当前经济波动中寻求价值的愿望日益强烈，这可能在未来几个月对美国经济和金融市场产生更广泛的影响。