美國公債殖利率上升可能對 2025 年經濟帶來麻煩

隨著美國 2024 年大選臨近，經濟指標預示著未來將出現動盪

As the United States approaches the 2024 election, key economic indicators are signaling potential turbulence ahead. One notable trend that has garnered attention among financial analysts is the "bear steepening" in the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

隨著美國 2024 年大選臨近，關鍵經濟指標預示著未來可能出現動盪。引起金融分析師關注的一個顯著趨勢是美國公債殖利率曲線的「熊市陡峭化」。

The yield curve visually depicts the yields on U.S. Treasury securities across varying maturities, typically ranging from three months to 30 years. Traditionally, the yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher yields for longer-term bonds. This reflects the fact that investors generally demand a higher return for committing their funds over an extended period, especially considering the potential risks involved.

殖利率曲線直觀地描繪了不同期限（通常從三個月到三十年）的美國公債殖利率。傳統上，殖利率曲線向上傾斜，顯示長期債券的殖利率較高。這反映了這樣一個事實，即投資者通常要求在較長時間內投入資金以獲得更高的回報，特別是考慮到所涉及的潛在風險。

However, for more than two years now, the yield curve has been largely inverted, a scenario in which short-term yields surpass those of long-term bonds. This particular configuration has historically served as a predictor of an impending recession. In recent months, this inversion has gradually reversed, leading to a steepening of the yield curve.

然而，兩年多來，殖利率曲線基本上倒掛，出現短期殖利率超過長期債券的情況。這種特殊的配置歷來被視為即將到來的經濟衰退的預測指標。近幾個月來，這種倒掛逐漸逆轉，導致殖利率曲線陡峭。

This steepening occurs when long-term yields rise faster than short-term ones. While a steepening yield curve is typically viewed as a favorable economic sign, the recent trend has been particularly sharp in the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, whose yields are up by 2.41% and 2.33%, respectively.

當長期殖利率上升快於短期殖利率時，就會出現這種陡峭化。雖然殖利率曲線陡峭通常被視為有利的經濟訊號，但最近 10 年期和 30 年期公債的趨勢尤其明顯，其殖利率分別上漲了 2.41% 和 2.33%。

A bear steepening is a specific type of steepening characterized by rising yields across the board, but with longer-term bonds climbing more aggressively than short-term ones. This often reflects market expectations of higher inflation and possibly greater government borrowing—both of which tend to push yields up on longer maturities. It serves as a warning signal that market participants anticipate potential economic struggles, even a deep recession.

熊市陡峭化是一種特殊類型的陡峭化，其特徵是殖利率全面上升，但長期債券的上漲速度比短期債券更為激進。這通常反映了市場對通膨上升和政府借貸可能增加的預期——這兩者往往會推高期限較長的收益率。它是一個警告信號，表明市場參與者預計將出現潛在的經濟困境，甚至嚴重衰退。

The recent steepening in the yield curve has indeed raised concerns among some economists and investors, especially in light of the fact that an inverted yield curve has preceded every major American recession, including the Great Depression. This period of inversion, paired with the subsequent steepening, often signals the economy's transition from a recessionary warning to a potential downturn.

最近殖利率曲線的陡峭確實引起了一些經濟學家和投資者的擔憂，特別是考慮到美國每次重大經濟衰退（包括大蕭條）之前都會出現殖利率曲線倒掛。這段時期的倒掛，加上隨後的陡峭，通常標誌著經濟從衰退警告過渡到潛在的低迷。

In this case, the bear steepening in the yield curve aligns with rising inflation fears and market anxieties over a possible pivot by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts if the economy weakens further. This shift in monetary policy could further complicate the economic outlook.

在這種情況下，殖利率曲線的熊市陡峭化與通膨擔憂加劇以及市場對經濟進一步疲軟時聯準會可能轉向降息的焦慮是一致的。貨幣政策的這種轉變可能會使經濟前景更加複雜。

Moreover, the recent steepening in the yield curve is also being compounded by a tendency among investors known as risk aversion. This behavior typically prompts investors to shift their portfolios towards safer assets during periods of economic uncertainty.

此外，投資者中一種被稱為風險厭惡的趨勢也加劇了近期殖利率曲線的陡峭化。這種行為通常會促使投資者在經濟不確定時期將其投資組合轉向更安全的資產。

One manifestation of this risk aversion is the ongoing surge in bond purchases, as investors seek the relative stability offered by fixed-income securities. Another trend that reflects this aversion to risk is the increasing investment in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as digital assets have experienced a renewed surge in popularity among retail investors.

這種風險厭惡的表現之一是債券購買量持續激增，因為投資者尋求固定收益證券提供的相對穩定性。反映這種風險厭惡情緒的另一個趨勢是對比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的投資不斷增加，因為數位資產在散戶投資者中再次受到歡迎。

These trends underscore a growing desire among investors to secure value amid the current economic volatility, which could have broader implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets in the coming months.

這些趨勢凸顯出投資者在當前經濟波動中尋求價值的願望日益強烈，這可能在未來幾個月對美國經濟和金融市場產生更廣泛的影響。