隨著聯準會準備向市場注入估計 8,000 億美元的流動性，以太坊 (ETH) 的價格可能很快就會大幅上漲

這種資金湧入與圍繞美國債務上限和財政部普通帳戶（TGA）調整的行動有關，引發了投資者的興奮。

As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to inject an estimated $800 billion in liquidity into the market, Ethereum (ETH) might soon see a significant price boost. This influx, which is tied to actions surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling and adjustments to the Treasury General Account (TGA), has sparked excitement among investors.

隨著聯準會準備向市場注入約 8,000 億美元的流動性，以太坊 (ETH) 的價格可能很快就會大幅上漲。這筆資金流入與圍繞美國債務上限和財政部普通帳戶（TGA）調整的行動有關，引發了投資者的興奮。

The timing of the $800 billion liquidity injection has emerged as a focal point. Analysts have observed that TGA balances often show consistent patterns, particularly around critical moments like debt ceiling debates. The TGA, which is currently estimated to be around $850 billion, could drain down to approximately $700 billion by the end of Q4 2024. If U.S. lawmakers delay an agreement on the debt ceiling, the Treasury might need to draw down its reserves further through early 2025.

8000億美元流動性注入的時機已成為焦點。分析師觀察到，TGA 餘額通常表現出一致的模式，特別是在債務上限辯論等關鍵時刻。 TGA 目前估計約為 8,500 億美元，到 2024 年第四季末可能會減少至約 7,000 億美元。 。

Historically, liquidity released from the TGA has positively impacted risk assets, including Ethereum. As the government releases funds into the market to pay for its spending, it increases the availability of capital, which tends to boost prices and increase investor interest in ETH.

從歷史上看，TGA 釋放的流動性對包括以太坊在內的風險資產產生了積極影響。隨著政府向市場釋放資金來支付其支出，它增加了資本的可用性，這往往會推高價格並增加投資者對 ETH 的興趣。

The substantial capital injection is expected to benefit Ethereum, potentially driving its price higher in the coming months as the market anticipates increased liquidity. However, it's important to note that the precise timing and magnitude of the liquidity injection may vary depending on several factors, including economic conditions and government spending patterns.

預計大量注資將使以太坊受益，隨著市場預期流動性增加，可能會在未來幾個月推高其價格。然而，值得注意的是，注入流動性的確切時間和規模可能會因經濟狀況和政府支出模式等多種因素而有所不同。

ETH’s Divergence from Bitcoin

ETH 與比特幣的背離

In recent months, ETH/BTC has experienced a marked separation in performance, which could be a potential indicator of an upcoming shift in the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. While Bitcoin has shown signs of strength, especially in the first half of 2024, Ethereum has notably outperformed the leading cryptocurrency.

近幾個月來，ETH/BTC 的表現出現了明顯的分離，這可能是更廣泛的加密貨幣市場動態即將轉變的潛在指標。雖然比特幣顯示出走強的跡象，尤其是在 2024 年上半年，但以太幣的表現明顯優於領先的加密貨幣。

This divergence in performance between ETH and BTC might be signaling a change in market leadership, especially considering the significant gains that Bitcoin has already posted from the last bear market bottom. If Ethereum maintains its divergence from Bitcoin, it could lead a new altcoin season, with ETH potentially steering the market toward higher valuations.

ETH 和 BTC 之間的這種表現差異可能預示著市場領導地位的變化，特別是考慮到比特幣已經從上次熊市底部取得了顯著收益。如果以太坊繼續保持與比特幣的差異，它可能會引領一個新的山寨幣季節，而以太坊可能會引導市場走向更高的估值。

Observers have also noted ongoing manipulation phases, which often signal a change in trend. As ETH continues to diverge from BTC and other top crypto assets, such as BNB and XRP, it could set up Ethereum for a promising rally in early 2025.

觀察家也注意到持續的操縱階段，這通常預示著趨勢的變化。隨著 ETH 繼續與 BTC 和其他頂級加密資產（例如 BNB 和 XRP）背離，它可能會讓以太坊在 2025 年初迎來有希望的反彈。

Major assets, including U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, are now approaching previous highs. Within this setting, where several asset classes are nearing critical resistance levels, Ethereum appears fundamentally strong, ready for a potential rally as the market anticipates increased liquidity from the Fed's actions.

包括美股、黃金、比特幣和以太坊在內的主要資產目前已逼近前期高點。在這種情況下，幾個資產類別正接近關鍵阻力位，以太坊似乎基本面強勁，隨著市場預期聯準會行動將增加流動性，準備迎接潛在的反彈。

Experts predict that ETH might establish a support base around the 0.032-0.034 BTC level, setting it up for a price surge heading into Q1 2025. Despite nearing a red MACD monthly candle — a candle that typically carries bearish implications, especially if it closes near the lows — analysts suggest that increased liquidity from the Fed could reverse this pattern, especially if Ethereum maintains key support levels and continues to diverge positively from Bitcoin.

專家預測，ETH 可能會在0.032-0.034 BTC 水平附近建立支撐位，為進入2025 年第一季度的價格飆升做好準備。收盤價接近紅色時分析師認為，聯準會增加的流動性可能會扭轉這種模式，特別是如果以太坊維持關鍵支撐位並繼續與比特幣出現積極背離的話。

Technical indicators also hint at a promising future for Ethereum. While ETH nearly closed its first red MACD monthly candle since the last bear market, showing a bearish divergence from the previous bullish trend, analysts believe this would not hinder a price recovery.

技術指標也暗示了以太坊的光明前景。儘管 ETH 幾乎收出了自上次熊市以來的第一根紅色 MACD 月度蠟燭，顯示出與先前看漲趨勢的看跌背離，但分析師認為這不會阻礙價格復甦。

Moreover, Ethereum showed an “Inside Pivot” pattern on the weekly time frame, which previously led Bitcoin to substantial gains as the market rallied out of the bear market in 2023. Additionally, the TD Sequential, another technical indicator, flashed a buy signal on Ethereum's 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential rebound if ETH holds above the $2,480 support level.

此外，以太幣在每週時間框架上顯示出「內部樞軸」模式，這導致比特幣在 2023 年市場走出熊市時大幅上漲。 4 小時圖表表明，如果ETH 保持在2,480 美元的支撐位上方，則可能出現反彈。

Could Ethereum Reclaim its ATH?

以太坊能奪回 ATH 嗎？

If the anticipated liquidity flows into the market as expected, we might see Ethereum target a price above $6,000 in the coming months. This price level could present a crucial test for ETH, especially considering that many investors who missed out on Ethereum at the $2,200 range might be looking for fresh opportunities to enter the market.

如果預期的流動性按預期流入市場，我們可能會看到以太坊在未來幾個月的目標價超過 6,000 美元。這一價格水準可能對 ETH 構成重大考驗，特別是考慮到許多在 2,200 美元區間錯過以太坊的投資者可能正在尋找新的進入市場的機會。

Bullish sentiments remain strong, especially among crypto investors who have witnessed impressive gains in 2023 and early 2024. Many market watchers are bullish on Ethereum's fundamentals, which could provide a foundation for sustained growth in the coming year.

看漲情緒依然強勁，尤其是在 2023 年和 2024 年初見證了令人印象深刻的收益的加密貨幣投資者中。

While uncertainties around TGA estimates persist, especially considering the government's spending patterns and debt obligations, Ethereum's current market position and the expected liquidity injection create favorable conditions for a rally. Should the Fed's actions play out as anticipated, we could see Ethereum stand to gain significantly, potentially igniting a powerful upward trend in early 2025.

儘管TGA預估的不確定性依然存在，特別是考慮到政府的支出模式和債務義務，但以太坊當前的市場地位和預期的流動性注入為反彈創造了有利條件。如果聯準會的行動如預期發揮作用，我們可能會看到以太坊將大幅上漲，並有可能在 2025 年初引發強勁的上漲趨勢。