尽管华盛顿重新发动了贸易战争，但比特币仍停滞了80,00美元。

有些人看到因果关系链接。但是，这种快速阅读忽略了必不可少的：不是地缘政治阻碍了市场

While the trade war reignited by Washington is grabbing attention, bitcoin is stagnating around $85,000, leading some to make a cause-and-effect link. However, this quick reading overlooks the essential: it is not geopolitics that is hindering the market, but the absence of concrete catalysts and a silent redistribution of flows towards safer assets.

尽管华盛顿重新发动贸易战正在引起人们的关注，但比特币却停滞了85,000美元，导致一些人建立了因果关系。但是，这种快速阅读忽略了必不可少的：不是地缘政治阻碍了市场，而是缺乏混凝土催化剂和对更安全资产的流动的无声重新分配。

To understand this inertia, one must go beyond this analysis and follow the true signals of the market.

要了解这种惯性，必须超越此分析并遵循市场的真正信号。

The illusion of a direct link between trade war and BTC weakness

贸易战与BTC弱点之间直接联系的幻想

On January 21, 2025, the announcement by the Trump administration of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports marked a new escalation in the trade war initiated by the United States. Quickly, some analysts established a direct link between this geopolitical tension and the stagnation of bitcoin.

2025年1月21日，特朗普政府宣布对中国进口的10％关税标志着美国发起的贸易战争的新升级。很快，一些分析师在这种地缘政治张力与比特币停滞之间建立了直接联系。

However, the data does not validate this correlation. Bitcoin did not manage to stay above $100,000 in the three months prior, well before the new tariff measures came into effect.

但是，数据不能验证此相关性。在新的关税措施生效之前，比特币在三个月前没有设法保持超过100,000美元。

Some market players have claimed that the $5.25 billion worth of bitcoin purchases by Strategy since February are the main reason why BTC has remained above the $80,000 support.

一些市场参与者声称，自2月以来，按策略购买价值52.5亿美元的比特币是为什么BTC保持高于80,000美元支持的主要原因。

Moreover, during the same timeframe, the S&P 500 reached a historical record on February 19, thirty days after the official start of the customs conflict, illustrating a market dynamic that did not follow the same tempo as that of BTC.

此外，在同一时间范围内，标准普尔500指数在2月19日的历史记录中，即海关冲突的正式开始后的三十天，这说明了市场动态的速度没有遵循与BTC相同的节奏。

The other element that contradicts this simplistic reading is the behavior of institutional investors. Between January 21 and February 18, during the rise of trade tensions, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $2.75 billion in net inflows.

与这种简单的阅读相矛盾的另一个要素是机构投资者的行为。在1月21日至2月18日之间，在贸易紧张局势的兴起期间，比特币现场ETF的净流入量为27.5亿美元。

This indicates an increased, even growing, demand from institutional players despite the geopolitical context. Additionally, several key indicators show that the price of BTC is evolving independently of the trade war:

这表明尽管存在地缘政治背景，但机构参与者的需求增加，甚至不断增长。此外，几个关键指标表明，BTC的价格独立于贸易战：

In summary, the data contradict the idea of a mechanical link between the trade war and the retreat of BTC. International tensions serve as a backdrop, but are neither the trigger nor the main engine behind recent developments in the crypto market.

总而言之，数据与贸易战与BTC撤退之间的机械联系的思想相矛盾。国际紧张局势是背景，但既不是加密货币市场最新发展的触发器也不是主要引擎。

Unrealistic expectations, controlled inflation, and risk aversion: the real top trio

不切实际的期望，控制通货膨胀和风险规避：真正的顶级三重奏

If the role of trade tensions seems overvalued, another series of factors more precisely explains the current weakness of bitcoin.

如果贸易紧张局势的作用似乎被高估了，则另一个因素更精确地解释了当前比特币的弱点。

First, the highly anticipated announcement of a “national strategic reserve of bitcoin” by President Trump brought major disappointment. The initial promise, mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, had fueled hopes for massive institutional support.

首先，特朗普总统对“国家战略储备”的备受期待的宣布引起了极大的失望。最初在2024年7月举行的比特币会议上提到的最初承诺激发了人们对机构支持的希望。

However, investor frustration peaked when the executive order was finally published on March 6, revealing content far less ambitious than expected. Thus, this disillusionment weighed heavily on investor morale.

但是，当行政命令最终于3月6日发布时，投资者的挫败感达到了顶峰，揭示了内容的雄心勃勃。因此，这种幻灭对投资者的士气重视。

Meanwhile, macroeconomic data indicates a much less favorable environment for a BTC rally. Inflation remains contained: the PCE index rose 2.5% year-on-year in the U.S. in February, and the eurozone CPI index reached 2.2% in March.

同时，宏观经济数据表明，BTC集会的有利环境差得多。通货膨胀率依赖：2月美国，PCE指数同比上涨2.5％，欧元区CPI指数在3月达到2.2％。

In other words, one of bitcoin’s historical drivers (the fear of runaway inflation) is fading. Furthermore, the U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with job openings near their lowest level in four years.

换句话说，比特币的历史驱动因素之一（对通货膨胀失控的恐惧）正在消失。此外，美国就业市场表现出弱点的迹象，四年来的职位空缺接近其最低水平。

Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.88%, a sign of a clear return to risk aversion. Such capital is directed towards assets perceived as safer, temporarily sidelining cryptos.

两年期财政收益率降至3.88％，这是明显避免风险的迹象。这种资本针对被认为是更安全，暂时占地的加密货币的资产。

This context may indicate a lasting repositioning of investors. In the short term, bitcoin may continue to evolve in a consolidation zone, unless a major external shock occurs. However, in the medium term, if inflation were to rise again or if more assertive political support for BTC materialized, a new bullish cycle could ensue. In the meantime, operators will have to deal with a more tempered macroeconomic environment and a crypto market that has returned to a form of maturity, where simplistic narratives are no longer enough to shift the lines.

这种情况可能表明投资者的持久重新定位。在短期内，除非发生主要的外部冲击，否则比特币可能会继续在整合区域发展。但是，在中期，如果通货膨胀再次上升，或者如果对BTC实现了更多自信的政治支持，则可能会出现新的看涨周期。同时，运营商将不得不应对更脾气暴躁的宏观经济环境和一个重新恢复到成熟的加密货币市场，在这种情况下，简单的叙述不再足以改变线路。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociaux de cette révolution en marche.

我是Alyra发行的区块链顾问认证的科学毕业生，我于2019年加入了Cointribuna冒险。我坚信区块链有可能改变经济的许多部门，我承诺提高认识，并向公众提高人们对这个不断发展的生态系统的认识。我的目标是让每个人都能更好地了解区块链并抓住他们提供的机会。我每天都在努力对新闻进行客观分析，破译市场趋势，传达最新的技术创新，并将其视为正在进行的这项革命的经济和社会问题。