儘管華盛頓重新發動了貿易戰爭，但比特幣仍停滯了約80,00美元。

有些人看到因果關係鏈接。但是，這種快速閱讀忽略了必不可少的：不是地緣政治阻礙了市場

While the trade war reignited by Washington is grabbing attention, bitcoin is stagnating around $85,000, leading some to make a cause-and-effect link. However, this quick reading overlooks the essential: it is not geopolitics that is hindering the market, but the absence of concrete catalysts and a silent redistribution of flows towards safer assets.

儘管華盛頓重新發動貿易戰正在引起人們的關注，但比特幣卻停滯了85,000美元，導致一些人建立了因果關係。但是，這種快速閱讀忽略了必不可少的：不是地緣政治阻礙了市場，而是缺乏混凝土催化劑和對更安全資產的流動的無聲重新分配。

To understand this inertia, one must go beyond this analysis and follow the true signals of the market.

要了解這種慣性，必須超越此分析並遵循市場的真正信號。

The illusion of a direct link between trade war and BTC weakness

貿易戰與BTC弱點之間直接聯繫的幻想

On January 21, 2025, the announcement by the Trump administration of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports marked a new escalation in the trade war initiated by the United States. Quickly, some analysts established a direct link between this geopolitical tension and the stagnation of bitcoin.

2025年1月21日，特朗普政府宣布對中國進口的10％關稅標誌著美國發起的貿易戰爭的新升級。很快，一些分析師在這種地緣政治張力與比特幣停滯之間建立了直接聯繫。

However, the data does not validate this correlation. Bitcoin did not manage to stay above $100,000 in the three months prior, well before the new tariff measures came into effect.

但是，數據不能驗證此相關性。在新的關稅措施生效之前，比特幣在三個月前沒有設法保持超過100,000美元。

Some market players have claimed that the $5.25 billion worth of bitcoin purchases by Strategy since February are the main reason why BTC has remained above the $80,000 support.

一些市場參與者聲稱，自2月以來，按策略購買價值52.5億美元的比特幣是為什麼BTC保持高於80,000美元支持的主要原因。

Moreover, during the same timeframe, the S&P 500 reached a historical record on February 19, thirty days after the official start of the customs conflict, illustrating a market dynamic that did not follow the same tempo as that of BTC.

此外，在同一時間範圍內，標準普爾500指數在2月19日的歷史記錄中，即海關衝突的正式開始後的三十天，這說明了市場動態的速度沒有遵循與BTC相同的節奏。

The other element that contradicts this simplistic reading is the behavior of institutional investors. Between January 21 and February 18, during the rise of trade tensions, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $2.75 billion in net inflows.

與這種簡單的閱讀相矛盾的另一個要素是機構投資者的行為。在1月21日至2月18日之間，在貿易緊張局勢的興起期間，比特幣現場ETF的淨流入量為27.5億美元。

This indicates an increased, even growing, demand from institutional players despite the geopolitical context. Additionally, several key indicators show that the price of BTC is evolving independently of the trade war:

這表明儘管存在地緣政治背景，但機構參與者的需求增加，甚至不斷增長。此外，幾個關鍵指標表明，BTC的價格獨立於貿易戰：

In summary, the data contradict the idea of a mechanical link between the trade war and the retreat of BTC. International tensions serve as a backdrop, but are neither the trigger nor the main engine behind recent developments in the crypto market.

總而言之，數據與貿易戰與BTC撤退之間的機械聯繫的思想相矛盾。國際緊張局勢是背景，但既不是加密貨幣市場最新發展的觸發器也不是主要引擎。

Unrealistic expectations, controlled inflation, and risk aversion: the real top trio

不切實際的期望，控制通貨膨脹和風險規避：真正的頂級三重奏

If the role of trade tensions seems overvalued, another series of factors more precisely explains the current weakness of bitcoin.

如果貿易緊張局勢的作用似乎被高估了，則另一個因素更精確地解釋了當前比特幣的弱點。

First, the highly anticipated announcement of a “national strategic reserve of bitcoin” by President Trump brought major disappointment. The initial promise, mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, had fueled hopes for massive institutional support.

首先，特朗普總統對“國家戰略儲備”的備受期待的宣布引起了極大的失望。最初在2024年7月舉行的比特幣會議上提到的最初承諾激發了人們對機構支持的希望。

However, investor frustration peaked when the executive order was finally published on March 6, revealing content far less ambitious than expected. Thus, this disillusionment weighed heavily on investor morale.

但是，當行政命令最終於3月6日發佈時，投資者的挫敗感達到了頂峰，揭示了內容的雄心勃勃。因此，這種幻滅對投資者的士氣重視。

Meanwhile, macroeconomic data indicates a much less favorable environment for a BTC rally. Inflation remains contained: the PCE index rose 2.5% year-on-year in the U.S. in February, and the eurozone CPI index reached 2.2% in March.

同時，宏觀經濟數據表明，BTC集會的有利環境差得多。通貨膨脹率依賴：2月美國，PCE指數同比上漲2.5％，歐元區CPI指數在3月達到2.2％。

In other words, one of bitcoin’s historical drivers (the fear of runaway inflation) is fading. Furthermore, the U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with job openings near their lowest level in four years.

換句話說，比特幣的歷史驅動因素之一（對通貨膨脹失控的恐懼）正在消失。此外，美國就業市場表現出弱點的跡象，四年來的職位空缺接近其最低水平。

Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.88%, a sign of a clear return to risk aversion. Such capital is directed towards assets perceived as safer, temporarily sidelining cryptos.

兩年期財政收益率降至3.88％，這是明顯避免風險的跡象。這種資本針對被認為是更安全，暫時佔地的加密貨幣的資產。

This context may indicate a lasting repositioning of investors. In the short term, bitcoin may continue to evolve in a consolidation zone, unless a major external shock occurs. However, in the medium term, if inflation were to rise again or if more assertive political support for BTC materialized, a new bullish cycle could ensue. In the meantime, operators will have to deal with a more tempered macroeconomic environment and a crypto market that has returned to a form of maturity, where simplistic narratives are no longer enough to shift the lines.

這種情況可能表明投資者的持久重新定位。在短期內，除非發生主要的外部衝擊，否則比特幣可能會繼續在整合區域發展。但是，在中期，如果通貨膨脹再次上升，或者如果對BTC實現了更多自信的政治支持，則可能會出現新的看漲週期。同時，運營商將不得不應對更脾氣暴躁的宏觀經濟環境和一個重新恢復到成熟的加密貨幣市場，在這種情況下，簡單的敘述不再足以改變線路。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociaux de cette révolution en marche.

我是Alyra發行的區塊鏈顧問認證的科學畢業生，我於2019年加入了Cointribuna冒險。我堅信區塊鏈有可能改變經濟的許多部門，我承諾提高認識，並向公眾提高人們對這個不斷發展的生態系統的認識。我的目標是讓每個人都能更好地了解區塊鏈並抓住他們提供的機會。我每天都在努力對新聞進行客觀分析，破譯市場趨勢，傳達最新的技術創新，並將其視為正在進行的這項革命的經濟和社會問題。