雷·达里奥的可怕警告：全球经济出现裂痕

投资者加里·斯通（Gary Stone）向其他投资者提出了一条至关重要的建议：关注雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）的经济预测。

Acclaimed investor Gary Stone urges fellow investors to heed the economic forecasts of Ray Dalio, considering his visionary insights and track record in predicting market movements.

著名投资者加里·斯通 (Gary Stone) 敦促其他投资者关注雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 的经济预测，考虑到他在预测市场走势方面的远见卓识和记录。

Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund with $112 billion in assets under management, is known for his deep understanding of economic patterns and his research into the causes of economic collapse.

达里奥是全球最大对冲基金桥水基金的创始人，管理着1120亿美元的资产，以其对经济模式的深刻理解和对经济崩溃原因的研究而闻名。

His advice is particularly crucial now, as Wall Street listens closely to his latest warnings about the global economy.

他的建议现在尤其重要，因为华尔街正在密切关注他对全球经济的最新警告。

Dalio has highlighted several trends that are causing concern. He points out that global debt has now reached $253 trillion, or 322% of global GDP. This debt burden, together with widening wealth inequality, is fueling social tensions.

达里奥强调了一些引起关注的趋势。他指出，全球债务目前已达到253万亿美元，占全球GDP的322%。这种债务负担，加上财富不平等的扩大，正在加剧社会紧张局势。

In 2019, Dalio described the global economy as a “machine” that was showing significant cracks. His advice? Investors should maintain a “very, very diversified portfolio” across countries and asset classes to safeguard against potential economic turmoil.

2019年，达里奥将全球经济描述为一台出现严重裂缝的“机器”。他的建议？投资者应在不同国家和资产类别之间保持“非常非常多元化的投资组合”，以防范潜在的经济动荡。

In a June 2023 interview with Bloomberg TV, Dalio warned that the world is entering a “dangerous phase” in the debt cycle. He explained that the global economy was nearing the end of a debt cycle, a period characterized by a supply-demand imbalance where too much debt is being produced and too few buyers are available.

2023 年 6 月，达利奥在接受彭博电视台采访时警告称，世界正在进入债务周期的“危险阶段”。他解释说，全球经济正接近债务周期的尾声，这一时期的特点是供需不平衡，债务产生过多，而买家却太少。

Dalio highlighted that major investors have already lost money on treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions are worsening the situation. According to Dalio, if this trend continues, the next 5-10 years could be very difficult in terms of managing the supply-demand balance of debt.

达里奥强调，主要投资者已经在国债上遭受损失，而地缘政治紧张局势正在使情况恶化。达利奥表示，如果这种趋势持续下去，未来5-10年管理债务供需平衡可能会非常困难。

Dalio has also spoken about what he calls a “paradigm shift” in the market. He explained that over time, markets become accustomed to certain economic periods—whether it’s non-inflationary growth, inflationary times, or disinflation.

达里奥还谈到了他所说的市场“范式转变”。他解释说，随着时间的推移，市场会习惯某些经济时期——无论是非通胀增长、通胀时期还是通货紧缩时期。

Eventually, these periods end, but markets continue to expect the same conditions to persist, leading to significant market adjustments when the paradigm changes.

最终，这些时期结束，但市场继续预期相同的情况将持续存在，从而导致范式发生变化时出现重大市场调整。

Dalio's advice to navigate these shifts is the creation of an “all-weather portfolio,” which balances risk and ensures diversification across different asset classes to weather unpredictable economic conditions.

达利奥应对这些转变的建议是创建“全天候投资组合”，以平衡风险并确保不同资产类别的多元化，以应对不可预测的经济状况。

With these warnings in mind, investors are advised to consider Dalio's approach to risk management and diversification, especially in a time of economic uncertainty.

考虑到这些警告，建议投资者考虑达里奥的风险管理和多元化方法，特别是在经济不确定的时期。